Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (INTREP)

TIME: 061730Z DEC 25

SUBJECT: MLD EXECUTION IMMINENT (T-3.5H) // BRAVO-BLOCK CATASTROPHIC DELAY // COGNITIVE DOMAIN PEAK CRISIS

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational environment remains centered on the confirmed Russian Federation (RF) Main Land Drive (MLD) at Stepnohorsk NLT 2100Z. RF forces are concluding pre-assault kinetic shaping.

• Primary Kinetic Axis (Stepnohorsk/Zaporizhzhia): Confirmed use of KAB glide bombs (17:16Z) on the Zaporizhzhia region, indicating final targeting of UAF strong points and C2 nodes immediately preceding the MLD launch. This complements the previous report of a strike on Polohy Raion (16:58Z).
• Northern Shaping Axis: Observed deployment of UAS toward Shostka, Sumy Oblast (17:29Z), maintaining fixing pressure on Northern Command and probing air defense viability in the rear.
• Deep Battle: UAF confirmed successful BDA on the Ryazan NPZ and Alchevsk Metallurgical Combine (17:05Z). This strategic attrition effort is now causing collateral damage in the RF rear, evidenced by the confirmed friendly-fire air strike on a Belgorod electrical substation (17:14Z, 17:21Z, 17:28Z), causing localized energy supply disruption.

B. Weather and Environmental Factors affecting Operations

Freezing conditions persist. The nationwide 16-hour mandatory power restrictions remain the most critical operational friction point, directly limiting the UAF's ability to surge logistical assets (BRAVO-BLOCK rail movement) necessary for the Stepnohorsk defense.

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF: 37th GMRB is in final staging. The RF is leveraging maximum cross-domain synchronization, attempting to ensure maximum UAF C2 distraction and logistical paralysis at the point of kinetic breakthrough. The accidental strike on Belgorod suggests localized RF air/ground coordination issues, potentially due to fatigue or complex targeting cycles. UAF: Forward kinetic readiness is maintained. CRITICAL JUDGMENT: The continued unconfirmed status of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve movement past the NLT 1730Z decision point (D+0/H+0) indicates a high probability of C2 failure or systemic logistical immobilization. This delay places the entire counter-attack strategy at maximum risk.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF Intent remains execution of the MLD at Stepnohorsk (T-3.5H) while capitalizing on political/logistical paralysis.

B. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

1. Exploitation of Internal Debate: RF Information Operations (IO) are now actively quoting and amplifying internal disagreements among Ukrainian political figures (Rada statements on peace talks, 17:27Z). This confirms RF intent to maximize political division immediately preceding the kinetic climax.
2. KAB Saturation: Pre-MLD softening of the target area using KABs (17:16Z) attempts to maximize attrition and minimize RF exposure during the initial assault phase.

C. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF logistics are under increasing UAF pressure (NPZ strikes), evidenced by the accidental strike on their own infrastructure in Belgorod, which demands immediate domestic damage control and possible logistical rerouting in their rear area. However, UAF sustainment remains systemically constrained by the power crisis and the confirmed Fastiv rail hub interdiction.

D. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains effective at the strategic level (cross-domain synchronization). However, the Belgorod incident suggests tactical C2 effectiveness and operational discipline in the RF Air Force are degrading, potentially creating minor counter-IO opportunities for UAF.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Kinetic defensive readiness is high, utilizing successful attrition tactics (anti-drone strike, 17:26Z). However, Operational Readiness is CRITICALLY low due to the inability to confirm or compel the commitment and movement of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve. Until this status is confirmed, UAF operational planning must proceed under the assumption that reserves will not arrive on schedule.

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Setbacks:

1. CRITICAL: Unconfirmed/Delayed commitment of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve.
2. RF successfully amplified internal UAF political splits, eroding the unity of effort perception globally.

Successes:

1. Confirmed destruction of key RF logistics/industrial targets (Ryazan NPZ, Alchevsk).
2. High-value counter-IO opportunity provided by the RF "friendly-fire" strike on the Belgorod power grid.

C. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Immediate C2 intervention to secure the movement of BRAVO-BLOCK, even if it requires delegating tactical route priority and EW deployment (Bukovel-AD) to the lowest possible level (Brigade/MCLC Lead). CRITICAL CONSTRAINT: Time compression (T-3.5H) combined with the Fastiv bypass challenge. The window to effectively reroute heavy rail traffic and position mobile generators is closing rapidly.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns (MAXIMUM THREAT LEVEL)

The RF IO strategy aims for systemic political paralysis across three vectors:

1. Peace Trap/External Coercion: RF amplifiers are leveraging confirmed UAF diplomatic contact (Kushner/Witkoff) and amplifying radical western voices (Musk, 17:09Z) and internal EU critics (Orban, 17:31Z) to portray Ukraine as isolated and politically cornered.
2. Internal Dissolution: Direct exploitation of internal UAF political debate (Rada statements, 17:27Z) to fuel domestic doubt regarding the NCA's political resolve and unified command.
3. Infrastructure Dominance: RF confirms the scale of the strategic strike (428 munitions) to reinforce the narrative that Ukraine cannot protect its core infrastructure.

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

The confluence of the MLD threat and the power crisis is severe. The UAF must immediately leverage successful deep strikes (Ryazan) and the embarrassing Belgorod friendly-fire incident to pivot the narrative from "UAF failure" to "RF operational incompetence and strategic desperation."

C. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The IO target remains the delay of critical Western aid packages by creating the perception that Ukraine is either seeking a political surrender (Peace Trap) or that the conflict is entering a protracted, unstable phase (EU Dissolution narrative).

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

A. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF initiates "Operation Guardians" (MLD) NLT 2100Z. The 37th GMRB will achieve localized success (5-8 km penetration) because the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve will not arrive in strength prior to 070600Z DEC 25 due to the cumulative effect of the Fastiv disruption, the 16-hour power crisis, and the "Mangas" aerial mining threat. RF will then pivot the 38th GMRB from fixing to exploitation on the Huliaipole flank.

B. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) Systemic Logistical and C2 Collapse followed by Operational Encirclement. RF executes a concentrated strike on the Zolotonosha rail hub (NLT 1800Z), achieving total severing of the central and southern rail networks. Simultaneously, the 38th GMRB conducts an unobserved breakthrough maneuver via Huliaipole, utilizing the UAF reserve delay and logistical paralysis to encircle the primary UAF defensive element at Stepnohorsk.

C. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. OPERATIONAL MANEUVER & FORCE PROTECTION (J3/J6): INITIATE DELEGATED RESERVE MOVEMENT & EXPLOIT AD VOID.

   • Action A (C2 Delegation): Delegate authority to the lead Brigade Commander of BRAVO-BLOCK to select the route and prioritize movement speed, bypassing C2 friction at the NCA level, effective NLT 1745Z. Movement must begin now, accepting minor tactical attrition risks over operational delay.
   • Action B (Fires): Execute Immediate Suppression Fire (NLT 1800Z). Commit all available deep strike assets (HIMARS, Bayraktar/UAS) to saturate known 37th GMRB final assembly areas (west of FLOT). The goal is to maximize physical and cognitive friction on the assault echelon within the narrow Buk AD void window.

2. LOGISTICS & SUSTAINMENT (J4/J8): SECURE LOGISTICAL SPINE VIA REROUTE.

   • Action A (Logistics Reroute): Confirm the Lviv-Zviahel-Dnipro bypass is fully operational. Verify that all Class V traffic destined for Southern Command has been transferred off the Fastiv vector and is moving through the alternative corridor, NLT 1830Z.
   • Action B (Energy Triage): Conduct real-time verification (Priority 3 CR) that mobile power generation has been successfully deployed to the critical C2 nodes and the alternative rail hubs to maintain throughput through the 16-hour curtailment.

3. STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS (P7/G2): COUNTER-NARRATIVE: EXPLOIT BELGOROD & DEFEAT PEACE TRAP.

   • Action A (Peace Trap): Issue an expanded NCA statement NLT 1745Z that frames the RF MLD as a desperate attempt to force negotiations. Explicitly counter the RF exploitation of Rada comments by confirming unified resolve.
   • Action B (Counter-IO/Belgorod): Immediately launch an aggressive campaign leveraging the Belgorod friendly-fire strike ("RF Incompetence and Desperation"). Portray this event as proof that UAF strategic deep strikes (Ryazan) have paralyzed RF C2 and domestic infrastructure, forcing errors at the height of their planned operation.

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