Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (INTREP)

TIME: 061700Z DEC 25

SUBJECT: MLD TIGHTENING (T-4H) // COGNITIVE DOMAIN CRISIS // BRAVO-BLOCK MOVEMENT URGENCY

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational environment remains defined by the immediate threat of the Russian Federation (RF) Main Land Drive (MLD) at Stepnohorsk NLT 2100Z. RF forces are concluding final shaping operations across multiple axes, leveraging coordinated kinetic and cognitive pressure.

• Primary Kinetic Axis (Stepnohorsk/Zaporizhzhia): High kinetic density confirmed, including an RF strike wounding a law enforcement official in Polohy Raion (16:58Z), indicating continued pre-MLD targeting in the near rear area of the Southern Front.
• Shaping Axes: Confirmed UAS movement on the Kharkiv-Poltava axis (16:46Z) indicates continued intent to fix UAF attention and potentially target follow-on C2 or logistical assets in the northern theater.
• Deep Strike: RF sources confirm the extensive scale of the overnight strategic interdiction campaign (claiming 428 high-precision weapons, 365 drones, 29 Kh-101s) against military-industrial and energy targets, validating the strategic intent to induce logistical and C2 paralysis.

B. Weather and Environmental Factors affecting Operations

Freezing conditions persist. The nationwide 16-hour mandatory power restrictions (starting 07 DEC) remains the defining operational factor, severely constraining UAF logistical throughput, maintenance, and C2 resilience as the MLD approaches.

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF: RF forces are in the final countdown to Phase II (Execution). The 37th GMRB is in final assembly. Synchronization between strategic kinetic strikes (power grid) and the immediate exploitation of the political/diplomatic Information Operation (IO) demonstrates a high degree of cross-domain C2 effectiveness. UAF: UAF kinetic readiness is high. However, the critical failure to confirm the timely start and current trajectory of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve movement (NLT 1600Z window passed) introduces maximum risk to the planned counter-attack strategy post-MLD. NCA remains under high stress due to compounded crises.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF Intent is confirmed and refined: execute kinetic breakthrough at Stepnohorsk (T-4H) while simultaneously maximizing strategic logistical friction (power crisis) and generating cognitive paralysis (Peace Trap IO).

B. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

1. Maximum IO Exploitation: The immediate and unified amplification across major RF/Pro-RF channels of the Zelenskyy/Kushner call demonstrates a highly effective, pre-staged IO plan designed to capitalize on Western political uncertainty precisely at the moment of kinetic climax.
2. Focus on Near-Rear: Targeting of minor administrative/police assets in Polohy Raion suggests localized reconnaissance by fire or clearance operations intended to secure the 37th GMRB's near-rear supply lines immediately preceding the main assault.

C. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF logistics are under pressure (UAF NPZ strikes), which they are actively attempting to mask via IO. UAF sustainment faces a systemic, immediate crisis due to the mandated 16-hour power outages, which will severely impact heavy rail movement required for the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve.

D. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 is highly effective at cross-domain synchronization, achieving the highest level of coordination between kinetic warfare and strategic influence operations seen in recent weeks.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Kinetic posture remains defensive-aggressive, focused on pre-MLD attrition and reserve commitment. However, the operational tempo is critically hampered by the unconfirmed status and delayed start of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve movement. The NCA must regain C2 over reserve timing immediately.

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Setbacks:

1. CRITICAL: The operational vulnerability stemming from the delayed/unconfirmed status of the reserve movement persists.
2. RF has achieved overwhelming cognitive domain leverage through the "Peace Trap" narrative validation.

Successes:

1. Confirmed GUR operations resulting in the elimination of two RF personnel (16:53Z), serving as a crucial high-profile counter-IO piece.
2. Defense of Avdiivka continues despite high infrastructure damage (16:43Z photo evidence).

C. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT 1 (C2/Mobility): Immediate allocation of dedicated EW assets (Bukovel-AD) and operational MCLC leads to the BRAVO-BLOCK column path to neutralize the "Mangas" aerial mining threat and facilitate maximum speed. CRITICAL CONSTRAINT: The 16-hour power constraint introduces unacceptable friction into the logistical spine (rail network). Mobile generator units must be prioritized and deployed now to critical rail offload and refuel points.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns (MAXIMUM THREAT LEVEL)

The RF Information Warfare strategy has reached a peak synchronization point, converting diplomatic contact into strategic validation of their core narrative:

1. Peace Trap (CRITICAL): The official UAF confirmation of the consultation with Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff (16:36Z, 17:01Z) provides irrefutable evidence for RF amplifiers (16:50Z) to claim that Kyiv is desperately seeking political lifelines, diverting attention from the Stepnohorsk defense, and signaling potential US commitment erosion.
2. Infrastructure Success: The RF amplification of the massive strike scale (16:45Z) supports the narrative of RF military capability while reinforcing the internal perception that UAF defenses cannot protect vital strategic infrastructure.

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

The convergence of the imminent MLD, the confirmed 16-hour power crisis, and the strategic IO concerning the Kushner/Witkoff call creates a severe test of national resilience. Without immediate, clear NCA communication, morale could fragment, impacting mobilization and defensive effort sustainment.

C. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The RF goal is to foster doubt in international capitals regarding Ukraine's long-term commitment to victory. The "Peace Trap" IO specifically targets the US political debate and the EU's fragile unity (amplification of Orban previously noted).

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

A. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF initiates "Operation Guardians" (MLD) NLT 2100Z, employing the 37th GMRB. The kinetic momentum will be maximized by the RF assumption that the UAF counter-attack (BRAVO-BLOCK) will arrive significantly delayed and fragmented due to unresolved logistical/EW constraints, exacerbated by the national power crisis. The RF will consolidate a 5-8 km breach depth by 070600Z DEC 25.

B. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) Systemic Logistical and C2 Collapse. RF executes a follow-up deep strike NLT 1800Z against the Zolotonosha rail hub (as previously threatened), achieving kinetic paralysis of the central rail artery. This simultaneous severing of the Lviv-Zviahel-Dnipro bypass combined with the delayed BRAVO-BLOCK movement and the grid power crisis immobilizes the reserve en route. Forward UAF elements at Stepnohorsk, unable to receive Class V resupply, are then encircled by the 38th GMRB flanking maneuver (Huliaipole bypass).

C. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. OPERATIONAL MANEUVER & FORCE PROTECTION (J3/J6): FORCE THE RESERVE MOVEMENT AND ATTACK THE VOID.

   • Action A (Maneuver): COMPEL RESERVE MOVEMENT NOW. Issue an emergency directive prioritizing speed over ideal route clearance for BRAVO-BLOCK. Ensure the MCLC/Roller/EW (Bukovel-AD) vanguard is operating at maximum safe velocity, accepting controlled risk to reach Phase Line FOX NLT 1900Z.
   • Action B (Fires): EXECUTE PRE-MLD STRIKE (NLT 1800Z). Immediately commit remaining deep strike assets (HIMARS, Bayraktar/UAS) to saturate the Stepnohorsk sector (west of FLOT) to suppress 37th GMRB assault echelons, maximizing attrition during the confirmed Buk-M3 AD void window.

2. LOGISTICS & SUSTAINMENT (J4/J8): SECURE CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE THROUGH POWER TRIAGE.

   • Action A (Energy): IMMEDIATE MILITARY OVERRIDE. Implement the emergency directive to dedicate mobile power generation to the Southern Command C2 nodes and the alternative Lviv-Zviahel-Dnipro rail line. This must be implemented within the hour (NLT 1800Z) to mitigate the cascading effects of the 16-hour curtailment.
   • Action B (Logistics): REDIRECT ALL HIGH-PRIORITY RAIL TRAFFIC. Assume Fastiv is unusable and that Zolotonosha is a confirmed target. All Class V (Ammunition) destined for the Southern Front must utilize the Lviv-Zviahel-Dnipro corridor and be buffered at Dnipro/Zviahel hubs prior to 2000Z.

3. STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS (P7/G2): COUNTER-NARRATIVE: DEFEAT PEACE TRAP.

   • Action A (Peace Trap): The NCA must issue a detailed, unambiguous public statement NLT 1745Z that frames the Kushner/Witkoff call as "Consultations on post-war security guarantees and reconstruction logistics," explicitly denying any discussion of ceasefire, territorial concessions, or immediate peace deals. The communication must emphasize that negotiations are contingent upon the imminent defeat of the Russian MLD at Stepnohorsk.
   • Action B (Energy Crisis): Integrate the Belgorod power cut (UAF success) into the energy message: portray the national power crisis as RF desperation to paralyze Ukraine before suffering a kinetic defeat at Stepnohorsk, bolstering the narrative of UAF resilience.

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