Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (INTREP)

TIME: 061634Z DEC 25

SUBJECT: MLD TIGHTENING (T-4.5H) // BRAVO-BLOCK RESERVE MOVEMENT CRITICAL DELAY // NATIONAL POWER CRISIS CONFIRMED // IO CAMPAIGN VALIDATED

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational environment is characterized by intensifying RF shaping operations across multiple domains leading to the confirmed Main Land Drive (MLD) at Stepnohorsk (NLT 2100Z).

• Primary Kinetic Axis (Stepnohorsk/Zaporizhzhia): High-intensity activity confirmed, including Russian employment of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) against UAF concentrations in Zaporizhzhia (16:28Z), indicating final preparation fires.
• Secondary/Fixing Axes: RF forces are confirmed to be targeting UAF communications (Starlink terminals) in the Krasnolymanske direction (16:30Z). Furthermore, RF sources claim advances in the Kharkiv direction (16:26Z), confirming intent to stretch UAF reserves northwards while the ME launches south.
• Deep Strike: Confirmed OWA reporting of UAS movement (Shahed type) targeting Sumy/Chernihivshyna (16:21Z), continuing the deep interdiction targeting initiated at Fastiv and Kherson TETs.

B. Weather and Environmental Factors affecting Operations

Freezing conditions persist. Icing constraints (from previous reports) remain relevant. The operational impact of RF infrastructure strikes is now severe: Ukrenergo confirms mandatory nationwide power restrictions (up to 16 hours) starting 07 DEC (16:19Z, 16:27Z). This imposes strategic friction on all logistical and C2 systems, elevating the national energy constraint to the highest operational factor.

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF: RF forces are in Phase II (Execution Preparation). Synchronization between Kinetic (KABs, deep strikes) and Information domains is near-perfect, leveraging the national power crisis and the diplomatic communications (Zelenskyy/Kushner call) to maximize cognitive pressure on the UAF NCA at the tactical decision point. UAF: The critical window for initiating the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve movement (NLT 1600Z) has passed. The actual status, speed, and location of this movement must be immediately confirmed. UAF defensive efforts have achieved localized success, including confirmed power disruption in the Belgorod border area (16:10Z).

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF intent is confirmed: simultaneous kinetic penetration at Stepnohorsk, logistical paralysis via infrastructure strikes, and strategic cognitive paralysis via synchronized IO.

B. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

1. Immediate IO Exploitation: The official UAF acknowledgement of the call with Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff (16:26Z) was immediately amplified across RF/Pro-RF networks (16:31Z, 16:33Z), providing high-quality strategic validation for the "Peace Trap/Negotiation Trap" narrative precisely as the MLD prepares.
2. C2 Targeting Shift: Confirmed kinetic focus on destroying Starlink terminals (16:30Z) demonstrates a tactical adaptation to further degrade UAF decentralized communications in forward areas.
3. Strategic Pressure Amplification: RF amplification of Hungarian PM Orbán's statement (16:23Z) reinforces the 'Western Collapse' narrative by portraying key EU members as actively attempting to obstruct consensus against Russia.

C. Logistics and Sustainment Status

UAF sustainment faces a systemic crisis. The national power grid limitation (16 hours per day of power cuts) drastically reduces rail throughput capacity, C2 redundancy, and maintenance cycles across the operational theater, increasing the likelihood of logistical failure to support counter-MLD operations.

D. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains highly effective, achieving rapid cross-domain synchronization (kinetic strike -> political event -> IO amplification -> tactical C2 targeting).

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Readiness is high, but the NCA and operational command are under extreme stress due to the compounding crises (MLD imminent, national power collapse, strategic IO paralysis). The failure to initiate or confirm the full acceleration of BRAVO-BLOCK NLT 1600Z is a significant operational delay.

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Setbacks:

1. CRITICAL: The BRAVO-BLOCK reserve movement window has been missed/delayed, compromising the projected counter-attack timing post-2100Z MLD.
2. The national energy crisis validates RF infrastructure targeting strategy and severely complicates rear area sustainment.

Successes:

1. Confirmed UAF retaliatory capacity, achieving power disruption in Belgorod (16:10Z, 16:17Z).
2. Official high-level recognition (Hero of Ukraine award, 16:18Z) and local morale efforts continue to serve as internal resilience anchors.

C. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT 1 (J4/J8): Immediate, high-level prioritization of power distribution to essential military logistical hubs (rail yards) and operational C2 nodes, accepting severe limitations on civilian consumption. CRITICAL CONSTRAINT: Limited EW capacity to cover both the BRAVO-BLOCK transit route and the main defensive lines simultaneously against the 'Mangas' threat and confirmed Starlink targeting.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns (MAXIMUM THREAT LEVEL)

The IO threat has intensified with real-world diplomatic events feeding the RF narrative.

1. Peace Trap (CRITICAL): The Zelenskyy/Kushner call provides the RF narrative of "Kyiv seeking backdoor peace negotiations with Trump affiliates" with high-level validation, timed perfectly to suggest that the NCA is distracted by political survival rather than the defense of Stepnohorsk.
2. Infrastructure Success: The confirmation of national power restrictions reinforces the RF narrative of decisive success in Phase I (Strategic Interdiction).
3. Corruption Sub-Narrative: Pro-RF channels (Rybar 16:04Z) are reintroducing corruption narratives ("Not corruption, but donations") to sow internal distrust, likely targeting the NCA ahead of the MLD.

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

The mandate for up to 16 hours of daily power loss will severely test national endurance and morale, providing a tangible, persistent link between the war and daily hardship, validating RF kinetic strikes. Immediate, clear communication from the NCA on energy prioritization is required.

C. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The simultaneous amplification of the Orban statement (EU friction) and the Kushner call (US political uncertainty) maximizes the cognitive dissonance regarding long-term Western commitment, which directly supports the RF goal of strategic paralysis.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

A. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF initiates "Operation Guardians" (MLD) NLT 2100Z. Due to the delay and fragmentation of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve movement (post-1600Z delay) and the systemic logistical friction from the national power crisis, the UAF counter-attack against the initial breach will be delayed (T+4 hours). This allows the 37th GMRB to consolidate a deeper penetration (3-7 km) at Stepnohorsk and establish Phase Line ALPHA firmly, compelling UAF forces to commit to high-attrition, phased withdrawal under significant logistical constraint.

B. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) Operational isolation achieved through supply and C2 collapse. RF successfully executes a follow-up deep strike NLT 1800Z against the Zolotonosha rail hub or the designated primary alternative route (Lviv-Zviahel-Dnipro). This simultaneous kinetic interdiction, combined with the new 16-hour power limitations, immobilizes the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve en route, leaving forward UAF combat elements fixed by the 37th GMRB and vulnerable to encirclement by the 38th GMRB flanking maneuver (Huliaipole bypass).

C. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. OPERATIONAL MANEUVER & FORCE PROTECTION (J3/J6): RESCUE THE RESERVE MOVEMENT AND PRESS FLANK FIRE.

   • Action A (Maneuver): CONFIRM BRAVO-BLOCK STATUS & EXPEDITE. Immediately task ISR/C2 assets to verify the current location and operational status of the reserve column. If delayed, increase EW protection density (Bukovel-AD) further and accept high operational risk to force maximum speed to reach Phase Line FOX NLT 1900Z.
   • Action B (Fires): IMMEDIATE BUK VOID EXPLOITATION. Execute massed long-range fires (Bayraktar, HIMARS, or deep UAS) against confirmed RF 37th GMRB forward assembly areas (NLT 1800Z), capitalizing on the confirmed AD vacuum to inflict maximum pre-MLD attrition.

2. LOGISTICS & SUSTAINMENT (J4/J8): IMPLEMENT EMERGENCY POWER PRIORITIZATION.

   • Action A (Energy): IMMEDIATE POWER TRIAGE. Implement an emergency directive that prioritizes electrical supply continuity for (1) Southern Operational Command C2 nodes and (2) designated rail throughput corridors (Lviv-Zviahel-Dnipro) over all non-military consumption, regardless of regional civilian impact.
   • Action B (Fuel/Ammunition): Pre-position buffer stocks of Class V and Class III at Zviahel and Dnipro now, assuming zero operational throughput capacity from the Fastiv corridor or any other hub until NLT 08 DEC.

3. STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS (P7/G2): COUNTER-NARRATIVE: DEFEAT PEACE TRAP & POWER CRISIS IO.

   • Action A (Peace Trap): The NCA must issue a rapid, unambiguous statement (NLT 1730Z) that directly addresses the Kushner/Witkoff call, framing it not as peace talks, but as "preparatory consultations for post-victory reconstruction and security guarantees," specifically denying any discussion of immediate ceasefire or territorial concessions.
   • Action B (Energy Crisis): NCA must communicate the national power restrictions as a necessary, temporary measure resulting from the enemy's desperation to avoid kinetic defeat at Stepnohorsk, linking infrastructure loss directly to the impending MLD failure narrative. Use the confirmed Belgorod power cut as proof of UAF capacity to retaliate against RF infrastructure.

//END OF REPORT//