Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (INTREP)

TIME: 061600Z DEC 25

SUBJECT: MLD LAUNCH IMMINENT (T-5H) // IO CAMPAIGN ACHIEVES MAXIMUM COGNITIVE SHOCK (EU DISSOLUTION NARRATIVE) // 1600Z RESERVE MOVEMENT WINDOW CRITICAL

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational environment remains defined by the impending RF Main Land Drive (MLD) at Stepnohorsk (NLT 2100Z). Confirmed RF multi-axis pressure and shaping operations are intensifying:

• Primary Kinetic Axis (Stepnohorsk): RF 37th GMRB remains locked in final staging.
• Logistical/Energy COG: Fastiv rail junction paralyzed; Kherson TETs critically damaged.
• Secondary Kinetic Axes: High-intensity fighting and claimed RF advances confirmed in the Krasnolymanske direction and around Pokrovsk/Myrnograd (Donetsk Oblast). This confirms RF intent to fix UAF reserves across multiple fronts while the main MLD prepares.

B. Weather and Environmental Factors affecting Operations

Freezing conditions persist. Icing remains a concern for specialized equipment, notably complicating UAS reconnaissance at low altitudes and reducing visibility, which favors RF infiltration elements and counter-mobility operations.

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF: RF forces are executing Phase I (Shaping Operations) of "Operation Guardians," marked by kinetic interdiction (logistics/energy) and synchronized Information Operations (IO). The deployment of propaganda units claiming success near Myrnograd suggests an attempt to draw UAF attention and reserves away from the main Stepnohorsk axis. UAF: The critical window for initiating the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve movement (NLT 1600Z) is now immediately upon us. Any delay beyond this time will severely compromise the ability to contest the 2100Z MLD launch window.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF intent is confirmed: simultaneous achievement of operational penetration at Stepnohorsk and strategic paralysis of UAF rear area sustainment and command authority via targeted deep strikes and synchronized IO.

B. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

1. IO Exploitation (CRITICAL): RF has achieved maximum external validation for its 'Western Collapse' narrative by immediately exploiting the public backlash from key US figures (Musk, Rubio, Vance) following the European Commission’s action against X. This tactical IO synchronization maximizes cognitive friction within the UAF NCA at the critical T-4 hour mark.
2. Narrative Sustainment: RF sources are actively spinning the Kherson TETs strike, arguing that the territory is disposable, validating the strategic aim of inflicting non-reparable damage.
3. Future Threat Pipeline: The documented use of FPV competitions and state-affiliated training centers (Pskov "VOIN" Center) confirms a robust, long-term RF effort to maintain and expand technical superiority in drone warfare.

C. Logistics and Sustainment Status

UAF sustainment remains critically compromised. The loss of Kherson TETs inhibits regional electrical C2, and the Fastiv paralysis threatens Class V/VII delivery. RF supply lines for the MLD are prioritized, accepting temporary depletion elsewhere. Successful UAF deep strikes against Ryazan/Uryupinsk are projected to impact RF fuel supply NLT 48 hours, but this will not affect the immediate MLD effort.

D. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 demonstrates superior synchronization across deep kinetic, shallow kinetic, and information domains. The coordinated strike, narrative release, and secondary attacks confirm an effective, centralized effort to destabilize UAF operations prior to the main thrust.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Readiness is high, but the strategic decision cycle is under maximum stress from the IO campaign and logistical paralysis. The immediate execution of defensive C-B fires and the reserve movement is the single most important current operational parameter.

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Setbacks:

1. CRITICAL: The window to kinetically exploit the Buk-M3 AD void has expired (NLT 1500Z). Deep strike assets must now prioritize confirmed 37th GMRB assembly areas under RF AD coverage.
2. The RF IO campaign has successfully achieved its desired strategic effect, maximizing pressure on the NCA and political decision-makers.

Successes:

1. Confirmed destruction of RF oil infrastructure (Ryazan/Uryupinsk).
2. High morale reports in the Zaporizhzhia region following local events (Khorytsia), suggesting localized resilience against the IO onslaught.

C. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT 1 (J3/J6): Immediate deployment and activation of maximum-power EW/Counter-UAS coverage for the BRAVO-BLOCK MCLC advance to neutralize the 'Mangas' threat and prevent operational paralysis in the reserve corridor. CRITICAL REQUIREMENT 2 (J4/J8): Urgent confirmation of power availability for priority logistical hubs (e.g., Dnipro rail yard) affected by the Kherson TETs failure.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns (MAXIMUM THREAT LEVEL)

RF IO now focuses on validating the claim of Western collapse, leveraging external figures and manipulated internal statements.

1. EU/NATO Rupture (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The Musk/EC fine reaction, coupled with the highly spun WSJ "US Strategy Shock" narrative, is being amplified across all RF channels to achieve maximum cognitive shock and reinforce the primary narrative of "Western aid is dissolving before your eyes."
2. Peace Trap Amplification (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF sources are selectively quoting UAF parliamentarians (Kostenko) who advocate delaying peace, framing them as irrational actors prolonging unnecessary conflict, designed to pressure the UAF NCA into premature concessions.
3. Kherson Spin: Post-strike narrative shift attempting to minimize the significance of the energy loss, suggesting the region is strategically unimportant to Kyiv.

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Public sentiment faces acute risk of demoralization due to the rapid, synchronized events: simultaneous infrastructure loss, MLD threat, and validated foreign policy rupture narratives. UAF morale efforts (Zaporizhzhia community events) provide localized resilience but cannot counteract the strategic IO thrust without immediate NCA intervention.

C. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The D-S confidence regarding increased US aid pre-Christmas (0.46) is a critical counter-narrative asset, but it must be leveraged immediately to defeat the RF claims of US abandonment/NATO friction, which are currently dominating the informational battlespace.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

A. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF initiates "Operation Guardians" (MLD) NLT 2100Z. BRAVO-BLOCK reserve movement is executed, but suffers significant fragmentation and delay (T+2 hours) due to effective 'Mangas' mining/attrition along the approach route, allowing the 37th GMRB to establish a firm foothold and tactical breach (2-5 km penetration) at Stepnohorsk. Logistical bottlenecks (Fastiv/Kherson power) prevent UAF forces from rapidly conducting synchronized counter-attacks, forcing a phased, high-attrition withdrawal to established Phase Line ALPHA.

B. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) Operational isolation achieved through supply and C2 collapse. RF successfully executes simultaneous deep strikes against Zolotonosha (NLT 1800Z) and the Dnipro rail hub, completely severing the alternative rail route and power to the Southern Operational Area C2 nodes. This logistical and power failure immobilizes UAF forces. Concurrently, the 38th GMRB executes the Huliaipole bypass (undetected), isolating forward UAF combat elements fixed by the 37th GMRB, leading to operational encirclement and forced surrender/destruction of a BCT-sized element.

C. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. OPERATIONAL MANEUVER & FORCE PROTECTION (J3/J6): EXECUTE TRANSIT AND SUPPRESS FLANK FIRE NOW.

   • Action A (Maneuver - 1600Z Hardstop): INITIATE BRAVO-BLOCK MOVEMENT IMMEDIATE. Ensure the mechanized column utilizes maximum available EW density (Bukovel-AD) dedicated solely to the 'Mangas' C2 link suppression, prioritizing speed over full route clearance.
   • Action B (Fires - 1600Z Hardstop): Execute massed fires against confirmed RF Vostok Group artillery positions near Huliaipole immediately to force the 38th GMRB to delay its flank bypass or execute maneuver without adequate fire support.

2. LOGISTICS & SUSTAINMENT (J4/J8): SECURE THE REAR AREA AGAINST COLLAPSE.

   • Action A (Logistics): PERMANENT REROUTE. Immediately designate the Lviv-Zviahel-Dnipro route as the primary logistical artery for the Southern Front, ceasing planning reliance on Fastiv for the next 72 hours.
   • Action B (Energy): Deploy all mobile power generation assets to ensure continuous operation of the Dnipro rail hub and the Southern Operational Area forward C2 nodes, prioritizing electrical continuity for rail switching and signal systems.

3. STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS (P7/G2): COUNTER-NARRATIVE: DEFINE THE COLLAPSE NARRATIVE AS DESPERATION.

   • Action: NCA must issue an aggressive, coordinated communication (leveraging foreign partners/D-S confidence data) within the next 60 minutes (NLT 1700Z) that directly addresses the RF IO. The message must: (1) Frame the synchronized IO (Musk/WSJ/Peace Trap) as the RF's final, desperate preparatory action before their imminent MLD fails; (2) Confirm (using high confidence reporting) that increased Western aid is secured and contradicts RF claims of abandonment. (3) Utilize strong visuals of UAF deep strike successes (Ryazan) to show RF internal weakness coinciding with the external IO campaign.

//END OF REPORT//