Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (INTREP)

TIME: 061530Z DEC 25

SUBJECT: MLD SYNCHRONIZATION CONFIRMED // LOGISTICAL PARALYSIS EXPANDED TO ENERGY COG (KHERSON TETs) // IO CAMPAIGN AT PEAK SYNCHRONIZATION

---

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational picture confirms synchronization for the Russian Federation (RF) Main Land Drive (MLD), codified as "Operation Guardians", coordinated with catastrophic strikes on Ukrainian logistical and energy infrastructure.

• MLD Axis (Stepnohorsk): RF 37th GMRB remains in final staging phase for confirmed launch NLT 2100Z 06 DEC.
• Logistical COG (Fastiv/Zolotonosha): The confirmed successful RF strike on the Fastiv rail junction creates critical materiel throughput bottleneck. The deep battle effort has now expanded to include critical energy infrastructure.
• Energy COG (Kherson): Confirmed, sustained air and artillery strikes (including FABs) have rendered the Kherson Thermal Power Plant (TETs) non-operational. This strike impacts the regional energy grid stability, complicating rear area sustainment for the Southern Front.
• Airspace (Chernihiv): UAS activity detected targeting Chernihiv, suggesting expanded RF reconnaissance or strike vectors away from the primary operational axis.

B. Weather and Environmental Factors affecting Operations

Freezing temperatures and high winds persist. The conditions complicate Mine Clearing Line Charge (MCLC) efficacy and continue to reduce the speed of mechanized maneuver for the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve. Low visibility does not significantly impede high-altitude RF KAB/FAB delivery but favors RF infiltration elements.

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF: Forces are locked in for the multi-domain offensive across kinetic, logistical, and informational axes. The expansion of deep strikes to the Kherson TETs confirms intent to maximize disruption prior to the MLD launch. UAF: The window to exploit the Buk-M3 AD void (NLT 1500Z) is closed. All focus must now transition to: (1) Executing the BRAVO-BLOCK movement (NLT 1600Z); and (2) Rapidly implementing logistical and energy bypass/repair plans to counter the paralysis inflicted at Fastiv and Kherson.

---

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF Intent is now clearly defined as achieving immediate operational breakthrough via the MLD while simultaneously inducing strategic logistical and energy collapse across the immediate operational rear.

B. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

1. Expanded COG Targeting: The shift to sustained use of heavy ordnance (FABs) against fixed, long-term energy infrastructure (Kherson TETs) confirms RF intent to inflict strategic, non-reparable damage, complicating UAF operational longevity beyond the immediate MLD fight.
2. Information Synchronization: RF media has achieved maximum synchronization, utilizing external events (Musk/EU conflict) and diplomatic statements (Whitaker) immediately alongside the kinetic phase (MLD) to optimize cognitive shock.

C. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF MLD shock effort is prioritized. UAF logistical sustainment is now under dual acute threat: Rail throughput paralysis (Fastiv) combined with regional electrical instability (Kherson TETs). The loss of Kherson TETs inhibits the use of electrically powered logistical hubs and rail systems in the Southern Operational Area rear.

D. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains effective in coordinating multi-domain kinetic strikes across deep and shallow battlespaces, achieving the desired paralyzing effect prior to MLD initiation. The C2 degradation window at the 18th GMRR HQ following the Buk loss has now closed or become negligible due to RF recovery measures, as anticipated. (Judgment: UAF window for kinetic exploitation of the AD void is closed).

---

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

UAF readiness remains high, but operational sustainability is now critically compromised by the dual logistical and energy setbacks. Operational planning must account for immediate, localized power generation requirements to maintain C2 and support systems in the affected regions adjacent to the Fastiv/Kherson strikes.

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Setbacks:

1. CRITICAL: Confirmed catastrophic damage to Kherson TETs, impacting regional energy stability and logistical support.
2. Confirmed critical logistical paralysis at Fastiv rail hub.
3. The kinetic window for exploiting the Buk AD void has been missed.

C. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT 1 (J4/J8): Immediate deployment of mobile power generation assets (Generators, Emergency Repair Teams) to the Kherson/Dnipro area to stabilize regional C2 and logistical hubs. CRITICAL REQUIREMENT 2 (J3/J6): Dedicated, heavy EW protection for the BRAVO-BLOCK column remains paramount to negate the 'Mangas' threat (NLT 1600Z).

---

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns (CRITICAL THREAT)

RF IO strategy is at peak operational tempo, focusing on external diplomatic fragmentation and internal Ukrainian despair:

1. Diplomatic Fragility (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF sources are heavily leveraging US NATO Envoy Whitaker's 'closer to peace' quote and Elon Musk's call for EU dissolution to reinforce the primary RF narrative of Western aid exhaustion and political incohesion.
2. US Abandonment Narrative (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF media is amplifying alleged statements by UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi about preparing to fight without US support, directly exploiting the political ambiguity surrounding US long-term NATO commitment post-2027 (D-S belief confirms ongoing friction). This aims to destabilize UAF morale and pressure EU commitment.

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

The synchronization of major IO narratives with catastrophic infrastructure strikes (Fastiv, Kherson TETs) creates a maximum morale threat, suggesting that external support is failing precisely when kinetic pressure is highest. NCA must aggressively counter the 'Peace Trap' and 'US Abandonment' narratives immediately.

C. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• D-S belief scores indicate HIGH confidence (0.46 total) that the US is planning increased arms supplies before Christmas, which directly contradicts RF IO messaging.
• Moldova's request for emergency electricity aid confirms the cross-border impact of the RF energy strikes, providing a tangible example for UAF strategic communications regarding RF aggression.

---

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

A. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(CRITICAL, HIGH CONFIDENCE) MLD Launch, Logistical Paralysis, and Energy Disruption. RF initiates "Operation Guardians" (MLD) NLT 2100Z 06 DEC. The BRAVO-BLOCK reserve movement is delayed beyond 1700Z due to effective 'Mangas' minefields. RF achieves a shallow operational penetration at Stepnohorsk. Logistical challenges stemming from the Fastiv strike and energy instability from the Kherson TETs hit limit UAF counter-mobility effectiveness, forcing a tactical retreat to Phase Line ALPHA under duress.

B. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(CRITICAL DANGER, HIGH CONFIDENCE) Operational Encirclement via Flank Bypass and Supply/Power Collapse. RF successfully exploits the Fastiv logistical paralysis and executes crippling KAB/deep strikes against Zolotonosha tonight (NLT 1800Z). Simultaneously, the 38th GMRB bypasses Huliaipole undetected, cutting the rear routes of the Southern Front grouping. UAF forces, unable to sustain operations (Class V) or maintain electrical C2/support due to the loss of Fastiv and Kherson power, are operationally isolated, leading to a force collapse and potential encirclement of forward elements.

C. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

---

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

---

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. OPERATIONAL MANEUVER & FORCE PROTECTION (J3/J6): EXECUTE RESERVE MOVEMENT AND COUNTER-MOBILITY NOW.

   • Action A (Maneuver): INITIATE BRAVO-BLOCK MOVEMENT AT 1600Z (HARDSTOP). The column must prioritize speed and EW integration. The MCLC/roller lead must be supported by maximum-power EW jamming specifically dedicated to disrupting the 'Mangas' threat.
   • Action B (Fires): Immediately execute concentrated C-B fires against the confirmed RF Vostok Group artillery positions near Huliaipole (NLT 1600Z) to suppress preparatory shaping fires necessary for the 38th GMRB flank bypass.

2. LOGISTICS & SUSTAINMENT (J4/J8): IMMEDIATE DUAL-DOMAIN PARALYSIS COUNTERMEASURES.

   • Action A (Logistics): Immediately transition all priority Class V/VII shipments for the Southern Front to the Lviv-Zviahel-Dnipro rail route. Do not reserve capacity for Fastiv.
   • Action B (Energy): Immediately deploy mobile power generation assets and engineering teams to the operational rear of the Southern Front to maintain C2, medical, and high-priority logistical hubs compromised by the Kherson TETs failure. Prioritize power stabilization for the Dnipro rail hub.

3. STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS (P7/G2): DEFEAT THE 'ABANDONMENT' NARRATIVE.

   • Action: NCA must issue an immediate, coordinated statement (leveraging the London visit and D-S high confidence data) to aggressively counter the RF 'US Abandonment' narrative (Syrskyi quote/NATO friction) and the 'Peace Trap' narrative (Whitaker quote). The counter-message must emphasize that increased US pre-Christmas aid is confirmed and directly refutes RF claims of Western political collapse. Frame the IO offensive as a final, desperate psychological prelude to the failure of "Operation Guardians."

//END OF REPORT//