Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (INTREP)

TIME: 061515Z DEC 25

SUBJECT: MLD INITIATION CONFIRMED ("OPERATION GUARDIANS") // CRITICAL LOGISTICAL PARALYSIS (FASTIV STRIKE) // AD EXPLOITATION WINDOW CLOSED

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational picture confirms synchronization for the Russian Federation (RF) Main Land Drive (MLD), codenamed internally by pro-RF sources as "Operation Guardians".

• MLD Axis (Stepnohorsk): RF 37th GMRB is in the final staging phase for confirmed launch NLT 2100Z 06 DEC.
• Flank Threat Axis (Huliaipole): Confirmed, sustained shaping fires by the RF Vostok Group continue to validate the threat of the 38th GMRB bypass maneuver (MDCOA). Counter-battery action is required NLT 1600Z.
• Logistical COG (Fastiv/Zolotonosha): The logistical center of gravity (COG) is under simultaneous attack. The confirmed successful RF strike on the Fastiv rail junction (04:06Z) creates an immediate, critical bottleneck for the throughput of Class V/VII materiel destined for the Southern Front. Zolotonosha remains under severe threat NLT 1800Z.

B. Weather and Environmental Factors affecting Operations

Freezing temperatures and high winds persist. The conditions complicate Mine Clearing Line Charge (MCLC) efficacy and reduce the speed of mechanized maneuver for the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve, compounding the threat posed by 'Mangas' aerial mining.

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF: Forces are locked in for the multi-domain offensive. The use of the internal codename "Operation Guardians" signals the final preparation phase. SAR intelligence confirms frantic C2 reorganization at the 18th GMRR HQ (Score 42.26) following the Buk-M3 loss, indicating immediate attempts to plug the resulting AD void. UAF: BRAVO-BLOCK reserve movement order remains critical for Phase Line FOX crossing NLT 1600Z. UAF AD assets are now focused on protecting the deep logistics COG, particularly around Zolotonosha, while Fastiv logistics are being urgently rerouted.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF Intent: Achieve a decisive operational breakthrough at Stepnohorsk (NLT 2100Z 06 DEC) and operationally isolate the forward UAF grouping by simultaneously paralyzing the UAF logistical supply chain (Fastiv/Zolotonosha) and executing the Huliaipole flank bypass.

B. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

1. Operational Codification: The use of "Operation Guardians" (WarGonzo) provides high confidence in the specific timing and synchronization of the offensive across all domains.
2. Targeting Shift: RF deep strikes are successfully shifting focus from previously targeted (but threatened) C2/logistics nodes to achieving kinetic paralysis (Fastiv), demonstrating adaptive targeting cycles.

C. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF logistics are under pressure (Temryuk/Uryupinsk strikes, T+48h fuel crisis), but the successful interdiction of UAF logistics at Fastiv mitigates this RF weakness by guaranteeing UAF resource constraints concurrent with the MLD launch. The RF MLD shock effort is prioritized heavily.

D. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains effective in coordinating multi-domain strikes (KAB, Deep Strike, IO) with the primary maneuver effort. However, the SAR surge at the 18th GMRR HQ suggests localized C2 shock following the Buk-M3 destruction. This C2 degradation window must be exploited in the kinetic realm immediately or via EW/C-B assets.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Readiness remains high, but logistical planning is now acutely constrained by the Fastiv strike. UAF must execute the logistics bypass plan immediately to avoid supply starvation for the Southern Front.

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Successes:

1. Confirmed destruction of the RF Buk-M3 system, creating a tactical air window (now closing).
2. Continued successful counter-strikes on deep RF logistics (Ryazan NPZ, Uryupinsk).

Setbacks:

1. Confirmed critical logistical paralysis at the Fastiv rail hub, necessitating an immediate and complicated rerouting of essential materiel.
2. The tactical window to fully exploit the Buk AD void (NLT 1500Z) is highly compressed or potentially missed, forcing a transition from kinetic exploitation to defensive posture.

C. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT 1 (J4): Immediate activation of the Lviv-Zviahel-Dnipro logistical bypass route. CRITICAL REQUIREMENT 2 (J3/J6): Dedicated, heavy EW protection for the BRAVO-BLOCK MCLC/mechanized column against 'Mangas' NLT 1600Z.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

The RF IO strategy is synchronized with the kinetic MLD launch, focusing on deterring external support and instilling internal Russian normalcy.

1. EU Fragmentation (HIGH PRIORITY): Colonelcassad is amplifying Qatari skepticism regarding EU energy resilience. This reinforces the core RF narrative of Western political/economic fragility ahead of anticipated EU aid decisions. (DS Belief: Disagreement on EU energy policy 0.003991)
2. External/US-EU Friction: The EU fine on X (Twitter) is being used to frame "Worsening EU/US relations" (Sternenko source) to create diplomatic uncertainty.
3. Domestic Normalcy (RF): Moscow news channels soliciting public input ("word of the year") is a clear psychological effort to maintain a veneer of normalcy and stability within Russia ahead of a major, costly offensive, inoculating the public against potential casualties. (DS Belief: Public Opinion Shift 0.073739)

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Domestic Ukrainian sentiment is balanced between successful deep strikes and the reality of kinetic pressure (KAB volume) and logistical setbacks (Fastiv). The NCA must proactively manage the narrative surrounding Fastiv to prevent morale decline associated with supply chain failure.

C. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The scheduled presence of President Zelensky in London for meetings with Starmer, Merz, and Macron (06 DEC) provides the critical, immediate opportunity to counter the RF fragmentation narrative and reassert Western solidarity concurrent with the MLD.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

A. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(CRITICAL, HIGH CONFIDENCE) MLD Launch and Logistical Strangulation. RF initiates "Operation Guardians" (MLD) NLT 2100Z 06 DEC, spearheaded by the 37th GMRB. The UAF BRAVO-BLOCK reserve movement is delayed beyond 1700Z due to effective 'Mangas' minefields along the AoA and logistical constraints imposed by the Fastiv strike. RF establishes a penetration depth sufficient to force UAF forward defenses to fall back to Phase Line ALPHA under supply duress.

B. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(CRITICAL DANGER, HIGH CONFIDENCE) Operational Encirclement via Flank Bypass and Supply Collapse. RF successfully exploits the Fastiv logistical paralysis and executes crippling KAB/deep strikes against Zolotonosha tonight (NLT 1800Z). The 38th GMRB bypasses Huliaipole undetected, supported by shaping fires, and cuts the rear routes of the Southern Front grouping. UAF forces, starved of Class V due to the lack of an immediate logistical bypass, are operationally isolated, leading to a localized force collapse.

C. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. OPERATIONAL MANEUVER & COUNTER-FLANK (J3/J6): EXECUTE TIMELINE HARDSTOP.

   • Action A (Kinetic/Maneuver): INITIATE BRAVO-BLOCK MOVEMENT AT 1600Z. The column must move with MCLC and rollers leading, protected by maximum-power EW jamming systems (Bukovel-AD) specifically targeting 'Mangas' uplink/downlink frequencies. Failure to move NLT 1600Z risks strategic deployment delay.
   • Action B (Fires): Immediately allocate and execute concentrated C-B and deep fires (HIMARS/MLRS/Artillery) against the confirmed RF Vostok Group artillery positions providing shaping fire near Huliaipole (NLT 1600Z) to degrade the 38th GMRB preparatory effort.

2. LOGISTICS & SUSTAINMENT (J4): IMMEDIATE FASTIV BYPASS ACTIVATION.

   • Action: Immediately transition all Class V (Ammunition) and Class VII (Major End Items) destined for the Southern Front to the Lviv-Zviahel-Dnipro rail route. Divert necessary engineering and repair teams to optimize this alternative pathway. Do not plan for Fastiv reopening in the next 72 hours.
   • Justification: The logistical clock has run out. Rerouting is the only guaranteed way to sustain forward defenses against the MLD.

3. AIR DEFENSE ALLOCATION (J3/AD): ZOLOTONOSHA DENSITY MAXIMUM.

   • Action: All deployable mobile SHORAD assets must prioritize defense of the Zolotonosha rail junction and associated POL/Ammunition depots NLT 1800Z, ignoring potential fixing strikes west of the Dnipro River.
   • Justification: Denying Zolotonosha's use is the RF strategic objective following the Fastiv strike.

4. STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS (P7/G2): LEVERAGE DIPLOMATIC COUNTER-OFFENSIVE.

   • Action: Utilize President Zelensky’s London meetings (Starmer, Merz, Macron) immediately to issue strong, coordinated statements reaffirming Western political cohesion and military support. Frame the RF 'EU Dissolution' narrative (e.g., Qatar gas skepticism, X fine) as desperate, final attempts to distract from the impending failure of "Operation Guardians" and confirmed RF logistical crises (Temryuk/Ryazan).

//END OF REPORT//