Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (INTREP)

TIME: 061458Z DEC 25

SUBJECT: MLD LAUNCH IMMINENT // CRITICAL DECISION WINDOW (1500Z / 1600Z) // ESCALATED KAB VOLUME AND IO FRAGMENTATION

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational picture is converging on the kinetic initiation of the Main Land Drive (MLD) at Stepnohorsk (Zaporizhzhia Oblast).

• MLD Axis (Stepnohorsk): RF 37th GMRB is in final staging. The air defense (AD) void remains open for exploitation, but the window is closing (NLT 1500Z).
• MDCOA Flank (Huliaipole): Confirmed Russian forces (RF Vostok Group, elements identified as "Far Easterners" by pro-RF sources) are maintaining pressure and shaping fires against AFU defensive positions. This reinforces the high probability of the 38th GMRB bypass maneuver (MDCOA).
• Fixation Axis (Donetsk/Kharkiv): UAF Air Force (PS ZSU) confirms active Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) launches targeting Donetsk and Kharkiv oblasts, suggesting a deliberate effort to fix UAF forces and draw attention away from the main Stepnohorsk/Zaporizhzhia effort.
• Deep Strike COG (Zolotonosha): The logistical center of gravity (COG) remains critically exposed to anticipated deep P4/KAB strikes NLT 1800Z, aiming to sever supply lines for the Southern Front.

B. Weather and Environmental Factors affecting Operations

Freezing conditions and high winds continue. The environment significantly degrades the speed of UAF mechanized maneuver and Mine Clearing Line Charge (MCLC) effectiveness, amplifying the threat posed by the RF 'Mangas' aerial mining system.

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF: Forces are synchronized for the multi-domain offensive. Key indicators are the continued deployment of 'Mangas' UAS to interdict UAF reserve corridors and the simultaneous escalation of infrastructure attacks (Kherson TETS hit by ~100 shells). UAF: BRAVO-BLOCK reserve movement order remains critical for Phase Line FOX crossing NLT 1600Z. UAF Air Force is actively tracking KAB and UAS vectors but capacity remains strained protecting both the front line and the deep logistics COG.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF Intent: Achieve a decisive operational breakthrough at Stepnohorsk NLT 2100Z 06 DEC and isolate the forward UAF grouping via a flank maneuver (MDCOA).

B. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

1. Increased KAB Saturation: The volume and geographical spread of KAB use suggest RF is executing a coordinated suppression fire plan across multiple fronts to maximize confusion and fix UAF AD assets ahead of the MLD.
2. Infrastructure Targeting: The massive strike on the Kherson TETS (100 rounds) confirms RF intent to maximize humanitarian and economic pressure concurrently with the MLD.

C. Logistics and Sustainment Status

The confirmed destruction of fuel storage at Temryuk mandates rapid RF action. Intelligence suggests RF is attempting to establish alternative, likely lower-quality, supply routes (Dempster-Shafer 0.29 belief). This logistical vulnerability must be factored into counter-MLD planning; the RF cannot sustain the offensive for extended periods.

D. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains robust, coordinating deep fires, local suppression (Huliaipole), and the primary maneuver (Stepnohorsk) while synchronizing a comprehensive Information Warfare (IO) effort aimed at global political and domestic psychological effects.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Readiness remains high, focused on meeting the MLD timeline. UAF AF assets are attempting to counter the high volume of RF KAB and drone attacks. The morale benefit from the BUK and Temryuk strikes provides necessary resilience against heavy kinetic pressure.

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Successes:

1. Confirmation of successful destruction of key RF logistics infrastructure (Temryuk, preceding report).
2. Continued successful operation of UAF air defense/anti-drone systems (14:40Z video).

Setbacks:

1. Confirmed critical infrastructure damage (Kherson TETS) contributing to winter energy instability.
2. Continued high-intensity kinetic pressure (KAB strikes in multiple regions) forcing decentralization of limited AD resources.

C. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Dedicated EW coverage for the BRAVO-BLOCK transit corridor against 'Mangas' NLT 1600Z. CRITICAL CONSTRAINT: The limited time available to fully exploit the Buk AD void (NLT 1500Z) using deep strike assets, potentially limiting long-term tactical advantage.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

The IO offensive is focused on creating a perception of internal UAF chaos and external Western collapse, timed precisely for the kinetic push.

1. Western Fragmentation (HIGH PRIORITY): RF amplification of the Qatar/EU narrative (14:34Z) supports the core thesis that EU political cohesion is failing, aimed at discouraging further military aid decisions.
2. Domestic Friction (CRITICAL): RF sources are actively weaponizing mobilization pain points (conscription of a priest, 14:41Z) and corruption scandals (Skorod) to erode trust in the National Command Authority (NCA) and delay critical mobilization/reserve decisions.
3. Kinetic Success Over-Inflation: RF sources are simultaneously claiming tactical breakthroughs (e.g., Seversk encirclement, 14:43Z) and operational dominance ("Winter Storm" on VPK, 14:55Z) to manage internal expectations and demoralize UAF forces ahead of the MLD.

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Public focus is strained between high-impact kinetic attacks (Kherson TETS) and amplified domestic scandals. The UAF must successfully manage these cognitive threats, or the RF objective of domestic paralysis may succeed, regardless of tactical results at Stepnohorsk.

C. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The upcoming UK visit (08 DEC) remains the critical counterweight to the RF fragmentation narrative. High-visibility diplomatic action is needed immediately to demonstrate Western political resilience.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

A. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(CRITICAL, HIGH CONFIDENCE) MLD Launch, Reserve Degradation, and Deep Interdiction. RF initiates the 37th GMRB MLD at Stepnohorsk NLT 2100Z 06 DEC. Concurrent, intense KAB/UAS strikes are conducted on Zolotonosha (logistics COG) and C2 nodes. The commitment of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve is delayed or piecemeal due to effective 'Mangas' aerial mine-laying along Phase Line FOX and AoAs, allowing the 37th GMRB to establish a defensible penetration depth.

B. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(CRITICAL DANGER, HIGH CONFIDENCE) Operational Encirclement via Flank Bypass. RF successfully stalls BRAVO-BLOCK. Utilizing the verified shaping fires around Huliaipole (Voin DV confirmed activity), the 38th GMRB executes a rapid, unobserved bypass maneuver into the rear of the Southern Front grouping. Failure to neutralize the Zolotonosha threat concurrently results in the operational isolation and subsequent collapse of forward UAF defenses.

C. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. OPERATIONAL MANEUVER & COUNTER-MINING (J3/J6): INITIATE AND PROTECT RESERVE TRANSIT.

   • Action A (Kinetic): EXECUTE BRAVO-BLOCK MOVEMENT NLT 1600Z under the protection of heavy-dedicated EW jamming lead elements. EW focus must be maximum power broad-spectrum denial along the entire reserve AoA to deny 'Mangas' C2 and data links.
   • Action B (Kinetic): Immediately dedicate maximum available Counter-Battery (C-B) fire and precision artillery (HIMARS/MLRS) to suppress and attrite confirmed RF Vostok Group artillery positions firing on Huliaipole (NLT 1600Z).
   • Justification: The reserve's arrival is time-sensitive. EW is the immediate operational countermeasure to aerial mining. Attriting Huliaipole fires will degrade the MDCOA shaping effort.

2. AIR DEFENSE ALLOCATION (J3/AD): MAXIMUM DENSITY ZOLOTONOSHA PROTECTION.

   • Action: Execute the pre-planned redeployment of mobile SHORAD assets (e.g., Gepard/NASAMS batteries) to establish a maximum defensive umbrella specifically over the Zolotonosha rail junction and associated logistics facilities (POL and Class V storage). Maintain strict control measures to prevent assets from being drawn off by the fixing strikes on Kyiv/Obukhiv/Kharkiv.
   • Justification: Logistical paralysis at Zolotonosha is an RF strategic objective that must be denied to sustain the fight past the initial MLD shock.

3. STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS (P7/G2): WEDGE THE ENEMY AND REINFORCE HOME FRONT.

   • Action A (International): Use the confirmed NCA diplomatic schedule (UK visit) and recent positive polling to immediately issue statements framing the RF EU fragmentation campaign (e.g., Qatar narrative) as a desperate attempt to distract from confirmed RF logistical failures (Temryuk) and tactical setbacks (BUK destruction).
   • Action B (Domestic): Issue a coordinated address leveraging the confirmed conscription of the priest by RF sources. Frame this as RF desperation, juxtaposed against the UAF narrative of "Wartime accountability" (Skorod arrest) and transparent, organized mobilization.
   • Justification: Countering the IO narrative now prevents NCA decision paralysis during the critical kinetic phase (2100Z).

//END OF REPORT//