Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (INTREP)

TIME: 061430Z DEC 25

SUBJECT: MLD LAUNCH IMMINENT // AIR SUPERIORITY WINDOW CONFIRMED // RF IO CAMPAIGN SHIFT TO EU DISSOLUTION

---

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational tempo remains high preceding the assessed Main Land Drive (MLD) initiation at Stepnohorsk (Zaporizhzhia Oblast).

• MLD Axis: The previous kinetic success (Buk-M3 destruction, confirmed by HUR 13:52Z) has created a significant, perishable air defense (AD) void in the tactical depth, critically compromising RF 37th GMRB air cover.
• Flank Defense/Shaping: UAF forces confirmed tactical mining operations targeting a bridge across the R. Haichur (Dnipropetrovsk/Pokrovske direction, 13:59Z). This indicates deliberate defensive shaping actions designed to constrain or channel potential RF secondary thrusts (e.g., 38th GMRB bypass maneuver). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Rear Area Friction: Partisan/SOF groups claimed destruction of an RF food/sustainment warehouse in Pervomaiske (13:55Z), suggesting continued high friction for RF Class I/III logistics in the deep rear.

B. Weather and Environmental Factors affecting Operations

Freezing temperatures and strong, stormy winds (07 DEC) remain the critical environmental constraints.

• Impact Assessment: Wind and cold will compound the effects of RF deep-strike energy targeting, increasing energy and sustainment stress on UAF units. However, the winds also constrain RF deep-strike UAV effectiveness and potentially inhibit the stable, precise deployment of Mangas UAS minefields.

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF: RF elements are in final staging. C2 demonstrates operational coherence, simultaneously promoting deep air capabilities (Su-35 night operations, 13:43Z) and initiating a massive, focused Information Warfare (IO) campaign against the EU (see Section 4). UAF: BRAVO-BLOCK reserve movement is the immediate priority. The confirmed AD gap presents a high-gain opportunity for pre-emptive attrition strikes. Air raid warnings have cleared the immediate Zaporizhzhia area (13:58Z), signaling the end of the preparatory strike phase and the imminent start of the ground assault.

---

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF intent remains kinetic breakthrough at Stepnohorsk NLT 2100Z 06 DEC, capitalizing on temporary logistical and political vulnerabilities identified in the previous reports.

B. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The primary tactical adaptation observed is the attempt to leverage strategic air cover (Su-35) to replace the lost area denial provided by the static BUK systems. RF remains committed to the MLD timeline despite the tactical AD setback, underscoring the urgency driven by internal logistical constraints (fuel shortage post-Ryazan).

C. Logistics and Sustainment Status

Strategic constraints (Ryazan NPZ, Shell Casing factory) are compounded by confirmed rear-area tactical friction (Pervomaiske food warehouse destruction). The SGF must execute the MLD rapidly before Class I, III, and V shortages become acute.

D. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 is highly effective in synchronizing the military MLD launch with a high-impact, coordinated Information Warfare campaign targeting Western political cohesion (see Section 4). This synchronization suggests a coherent strategy across all domains.

---

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Posture is defensive, with active measures to shape the battlefield (Haichur mining) and exploit RF AD vulnerabilities (Buk destruction). Readiness is high, supported by the national morale boost from ZSU Day and confirmed kinetic successes.

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Successes:

1. Immediate Kinetic Confirmation: HUR confirmed destruction of RF Buk SAM system in Zaporizhzhia occupied territory (13:52Z).
2. Deliberate Defense: Confirmed mining operations on the R. Haichur bridge, mitigating risk on the northern flank.
3. IO Counter-Narrative: UAF Air Force successfully used ZSU Day media to showcase defensive successes, including the first public inclusion of F-16s in the operational repertoire.

Setbacks:

1. Continued critical constraint regarding the Mangas minefield threat and time required to transit reserves.

C. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Immediate allocation of ISR and strike assets to exploit the BUK AD void (NLT 1500Z). CRITICAL CONSTRAINT: The limited window before MLD initiation and the need for dedicated Mine Clearing Line Charge (MCLC) lead for the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve movement under adverse weather conditions.

---

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF IO effort has significantly intensified and focused its vectors (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1. EU Fragmentation (HIGH PRIORITY): State media (TASS, Operatsiya Z) and proxies are launching a massive, coordinated campaign amplifying alleged Elon Musk statements calling for the dissolution of the European Union and the return of sovereignty (13:48Z, 13:54Z, 14:01Z). Goal: Undermine NATO/EU political unity and project Western collapse simultaneous with the MLD launch.
2. Peace Traps: Continued amplification of US/Trump-linked claims regarding "peace closer than ever" (13:34Z). Goal: Sow internal distrust and create political pressure on the National Command Authority (NCA) to compromise under fire.
3. Financial Destabilization: Messaging focuses on the negative economic impact of seizing frozen Russian assets on the Euro (13:34Z). Goal: Deter further sanctions and destabilize European markets.

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Domestic morale remains robust, leveraging ZSU Day to reinforce the narrative of decisive defense and active modernization (F-16 inclusion). The IO battle is currently focused on external support cohesion rather than internal UAF degradation.

C. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The coordinated RF IO campaign poses an immediate risk to the perception of Western resolve. The amplification of the EU dissolution narrative, specifically timed to the MLD, seeks to create diplomatic paralysis at a crucial military juncture.

---

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

A. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(CRITICAL, HIGH CONFIDENCE) MLD Launch and Exploitation of AD Vacuum. RF initiates the 37th GMRB MLD at Stepnohorsk NLT 2100Z 06 DEC. Concurrent heavy Kh-101/UAV strikes target the Zolotonosha logistical node. RF relies on limited mobile AD (TOR/PANTSIR) and Su-35 air cover to support the penetration depth. Mangas UAS minefields will slow the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve, forcing them to commit piecemeal against the RF advance elements.

B. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(CRITICAL DANGER, HIGH CONFIDENCE) Flank Bypass and Operational Isolation. RF successfully executes the MLCOA. Despite UAF efforts (Haichur mining), the 38th GMRB (Huliaipole flank) executes a rapid, unobserved bypass maneuver, forcing the Southern Front defenses to redeploy under fire. Combined with a successful Zolotonosha strike, the operational area becomes isolated, leading to the collapse of the forward defenses and potential encirclement of critical UAF C2 nodes.

C. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

---

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

---

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. OPERATIONAL MANEUVER (J3): IMMEDIATE AD VOID SATURATION AND ATTRITION.

   • Action A (Kinetic): Immediately launch reconnaissance-by-fire and deep-strike UAS packages (Bayraktar, Switchblade 600, FPV) into the confirmed BUK neutralization zone (Zaporizhzhia occupied territory). Priority targets are command posts, logistics trains, and pre-positioned armored elements of the 37th GMRB.
   • Action B (Reserve Movement): Maintain the EXECUTION OF BRAVO-BLOCK MOVEMENT NLT 1600Z with MCLC and EW dedicated lead. EW assets must focus on C2 spectrum denial against Mangas UAS.
   • Justification: The window of air superiority is tactical and critical. Maximum attrition before 2100Z launch will degrade RF combat power. The reserve cannot be delayed by aerial mining.

2. AIR DEFENSE ALLOCATION (J3/AD): HARDEN ZOLOTONOSHA AND C2 NODES.

   • Action: Allocate all available mobile SHORAD assets to ensure multi-layered protection of the Zolotonosha rail/road junction. Utilize residual heavy AD systems (if available) to protect the forward-operating C2 nodes near the Zaporizhzhia axis against fixed-wing ingress (Su-35/Su-34).
   • Justification: Sustaining the logistical artery (Zolotonosha) is paramount to preventing strategic paralysis (MDCOA).

3. STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS (P7/G2): NEUTRALIZE RF IO FRAGMENTATION EFFORT.

   • Action: NCA must immediately issue a statement (coordinated with key NATO/EU partners) directly refuting the RF-amplified narratives (EU dissolution, "closer to peace" claims). Emphasize that the kinetic success (NPZ, Buk) proves UAF strength and necessitates increased, not decreased, Western support.
   • Justification: The current IO campaign is designed for political paralysis. A strong, unified diplomatic response is required to preserve political will during the MLD.

4. FORCE PROTECTION (J2/J3): COUNTER-BYPASS INTELLIGENCE FOCUS.

   • Action: Prioritize ISR (IMINT/SAR) on the 38th GMRB staging areas near Huliaipole and confirm the effectiveness of the Haichur bridge mining to channel RF maneuver. Deploy sacrificial screening elements or light mechanized forces to monitor the northern flank for bypass activity.
   • Justification: Proactive monitoring of the MDCOA vector will prevent operational surprise and encirclement.

//END OF REPORT//