Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (INTREP)

TIME: 061400Z DEC 25

SUBJECT: MLD LAUNCH IMMINENT // CRITICAL ESCALATION IN ENERGY STRIKES // BUK DESTRUCTION GAIN MUST BE LEVERAGED

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational environment is characterized by the immediate convergence of the RF Main Land Drive (MLD) at Stepnohorsk (Zaporizhzhia) and accelerated RF deep strike campaigns targeting systemic energy and logistical networks.

• MLD Center of Gravity (Stepnohorsk): RF kinetic preparation is complete. Assault likely imminent (NLT 2100Z 06 DEC).
• Logistical Axis (Zolotonosha): Remains the critical choke point. Protection of the rail/road junction is paramount against confirmed Kh-101/UAV strike vectors.
• Energy Infrastructure (Systemic Degradation): RF deep strikes have escalated. Confirmed successful strike on the Zelenodolsk Thermal Power Station (Dnipropetrovsk) using 5x Iskander-M ballistic missiles (12:59Z). This, coupled with the previous ZNPP instability, has forced Ukrainian NPPs to involuntarily reduce generation (12:54Z), confirming the systemic nature of the energy attack aimed at operational paralysis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

B. Weather and Environmental Factors affecting Operations

Conditions remain clear across the Southern Operational Zone, facilitating high-altitude ISR and RF deep strike operations. Armored movement remains unconstrained by terrain, emphasizing the threat of Mangas aerial mining.

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF: RF maintains kinetic dominance in the deep battle space (Zelenodolsk, Zolotonosha vector) and continues preparatory operations. UAVs detected routing north toward Chernihiv (12:52Z), likely a fixation effort to draw AD attention away from the Southern axis. UAF: BRAVO-BLOCK reserve movement is confirmed as the primary operational maneuver. UAF counter-strike success (BUK destruction) improves local air superiority near the MLD epicenter.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF immediate intent remains unchanged: Initiate MLD and achieve tactical breakthrough while collapsing UAF C2 and sustainment via energy infrastructure failure and logistical choke point targeting (Zolotonosha).

B. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The most significant tactical shift is the intensified use of ballistic missiles (Iskander-M) against secondary but critical power generation facilities (Zelenodolsk). This indicates RF is moving past initial strikes on distribution (substations) towards destruction of core generation capacity, increasing the severity of the energy crisis coinciding with the MLD.

C. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF Logistics: The confirmed strategic losses (Ryazan NPZ, Temryuk) are now being compensated for by a temporary increase in kinetic strike tempo, prioritizing speed of maneuver over long-term sustainment. RF C2 likely accepting higher risk of fuel shortage post-MLD launch. UAF Logistics: Grid instability (NPP reduction) directly threatens the ability to recharge electric motive assets (rail, specialized equipment) and run localized field hospitals/C2 centers.

D. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains highly effective, demonstrating centralized strategic fire control and rapid synchronization of high-level propaganda (Kadyrov's immediate response to the Grozny attack) with kinetic activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

UAF forces are postured for defensive engagement and reserve counter-attack. Readiness remains high, but friction is being introduced through systemic energy stress and the Mangas threat. The successful destruction of the RF Buk SAM system (12:39Z) near the MLD AoA provides a local kinetic advantage that must be exploited immediately for ISR or F-22 (Fighter) support.

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Setbacks:

1. Successful ballistic missile strike on Zelenodolsk TPP.
2. Forced reduction of NPP generation due to widespread grid instability.
3. Continued UAV fixation effort (Chernihiv vector). Successes:
4. Successful GUR strike against an RF Buk SAM system in Zaporizhzhia depth. (HIGH VALUE)
5. Successful morale campaign capitalizing on ZSU Day (Zelenskyy/Military Prayer Breakfast).
6. Confirmed progress in public resource acquisition (4 million UAH toward target).

C. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Immediate exploitation of the air defense hole created by the BUK system destruction. CRITICAL CONSTRAINT: The MLD timing is converging with the peak effects of systemic energy degradation and logistics route contamination (Mangas mining).

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF IO is centered on Kinetic Justification and Western Incompetence:

1. Justification: Kadyrov/TASS messaging links the current large-scale strikes directly to an attack on Grozny, portraying the campaign as a moral and necessary response. This prepares the domestic population for higher operational tempo and associated costs.
2. External Pressure: Messaging around the confiscation of frozen assets (Dmitriev) is designed to destabilize EU resolve and generate doubt about the legality and stability of Western economic action.
3. Historical Revisionism: Continuation of deep ideological messaging (Basurin) targeting the historical legitimacy of non-Russian identities, aiming for long-term psychological degradation.

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Domestic morale management is currently effective. High-level appearances by President Zelenskyy synchronized with ZSU Day (Dec 6th) and the Military Prayer Breakfast successfully countered previous domestic friction (Skorod/TCC). The rapid public resource acquisition drive confirms high societal confidence and commitment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

C. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

Focus remains on economic coercion tactics by RF (frozen assets IO). No immediate shift in Western military commitment is noted, but RF is actively attempting to introduce friction.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

A. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(CRITICAL, HIGH CONFIDENCE) MLD Launch, Kinetic Escalation, and Reserve Interdiction. RF initiates the 37th GMRB MLD at Stepnohorsk NLT 2100Z 06 DEC. Concurrent Kh-101 strikes target the Zolotonosha rail bridge. RF assumes that the Mangas aerial mining will successfully slow or halt the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve movement, forcing them to commit MCLC assets piecemeal under fire. RF will increase the intensity of strikes on secondary energy nodes (e.g., thermal plants, hydroelectric facilities) across the rear area to maximize UAF C2 disruption during the kinetic phase.

B. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(CRITICAL DANGER, HIGH CONFIDENCE) Operational Isolation via Logistical and Grid Collapse. RF successfully executes the MLCOA. Due to the compounded effects of grid instability (severing C2 links and limiting mobility/resupply) and Mangas interdiction, the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve fails to arrive in a cohesive manner. The 38th GMRB executes the Huliaipole flank maneuver (unseen due to ISR gaps), bypassing or encircling the primary UAF defensive line near Stepnohorsk.

C. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. OPERATIONAL MANEUVER (J3): EXECUTE BUK EXPLOITATION AND PROTECT MOVEMENT CORRIDORS.

   • Action A (Exploitation): Immediately launch enhanced reconnaissance and deep-strike UAS (e.g., Bayraktar, MARA) to saturate the MLD zone, capitalizing on the temporary suppression of local RF air defense due to the BUK destruction.
   • Action B (Reserve Movement): Continue EXECUTION OF BRAVO-BLOCK MOVEMENT NOW with dedicated MCLC/Mine Roller lead, accepting slower speed to guarantee integrity against the Mangas threat. Maintain speed NLT 1600Z.
   • Justification: The window created by BUK destruction is highly perishable and offers the best chance to attrit RF assault elements before the MLD launch. The Mangas threat remains the highest risk to reserve coherence.

2. AIR DEFENSE ALLOCATION (J3/AD): ABSOLUTE PROTECTION OF ZOLOTONOSHA (Phase Line BRAVO Logistical Hub).

   • Action: Ignore fixation efforts (e.g., Chernihiv vector) unless the northern threat reaches the immediate vicinity of Kyiv VPK/C2 nodes. Maintain and reinforce mobile SHORAD assets (Gepard/NASAMS) around the Zolotonosha rail/road junction.
   • Justification: Preventing the logistical isolation of the Southern Front is operationally critical. The threat to Zolotonosha is verified and imminent (MLCOA component).

3. ELECTRONIC WARFARE / C-UAS (J6): PRIORITY EW DEPLOYMENT.

   • Action: Reprioritize EW jamming systems (e.g., Bukovel) for deployment along BRAVO-BLOCK movement corridors over local frontline AD support, with the specific task of neutralizing Mangas C2 links.
   • Justification: Preventing reserve paralysis outweighs localized tactical air defense in this operational phase.

4. LOGISTICS REDUNDANCY (J4): DISTRIBUTED POWER AND MEDICAL SUSTAINMENT.

   • Action A (Power): Immediately increase the distribution and activation of pre-positioned mobile generators to insulate critical C2 nodes and rail control centers from the cascading effects of the Zelenodolsk strike and NPP generation reduction.
   • Action B (Medical): Utilize the success of the ZSU Day morale drive (if applicable, link fundraising success to procurement) to rapidly acquire and distribute Class VIII supplies to dispersed field hospitals, anticipating sustained combat casualties following the MLD.
   • Justification: Confirmed RF intent to collapse the grid requires proactive, decentralized power solutions to maintain command authority during the assault.

//END OF REPORT//