Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (INTREP)

TIME: 061300Z DEC 25

SUBJECT: ACCELERATED MLD IMMINENT // FASTIV GAIN MUST BE EXPLOITED IMMEDIATELY AMIDST SYSTEMIC GRID ATTACK AND RF FUEL CONSTRAINT

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational environment remains focused on the imminent Main Land Drive (MLD) at Stepnohorsk (Zaporizhzhia Oblast). RF deep strike capability is focused on achieving systemic logistical and energy failure in the rear areas.

• Logistical Axis (Fastiv): CONFIRMED STATUS: FUNCTIONAL. Ukrzaliznytsia (UZ) and UAF sources confirm successful, rapid restoration of rail traffic through the Fastiv junction (12:04Z), overriding RF kinetic effects. This secures the primary route for the BRAVO-BLOCK operational reserve. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Infrastructure (Grid Stability): Systemic degradation continues. Ukrenergo confirms widespread Emergency Power Outages (Avaryine vykluchennya) across affected regions. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) experienced a brief 30-minute blackout (12:29Z), confirming the RF operational intent to exploit catastrophic power instability during the kinetic phase. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Deep Logistics: UAF Defense Forces confirm successful deep strikes against the Ryazan Oil Refinery (NPZ) and a shell casing manufacturing plant (12:14Z). This targets RF strategic fuel (Class III) and ammunition (Class V) sustainment, creating potential operational constraints on the RF Southern Group of Forces (SGF) follow-on echelons. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

B. Weather and Environmental Factors affecting Operations

Conditions remain conducive to high-altitude ISR and deep strike operations. No constraints on armored movement expected NLT 2100Z.

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF: RF deep strike assets (Kh-101/Kinzhal/UAVs) are confirmed to be hitting multiple critical targets simultaneously (VPK, Energy, Ports). RF maintains kinetic preparation for the MLD. The 33rd Guards Motor Rifle Regiment (GMRR), likely a follow-on or support unit, is confirmed receiving logistical support (12:11Z). UAF: The immediate operational priority is to execute the accelerated movement of BRAVO-BLOCK reserves now that Fastiv is clear. Concurrently, UAF must aggressively mitigate the combined effects of Mangas aerial mining on reserve routes and the systemic grid outages impacting rear-area C2 and sustainment.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF Immediate Intent: Launch the MLD assault while maximizing friction in the UAF rear through grid/ZNPP instability, denial of UAF logistical success (Fastiv), and inhibition of reserve movement using Mangas aerial mining.

B. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The confirmed successful UAF strikes on the Ryazan NPZ and shell casing plant represent a significant strategic friction point for the RF. The RF response is likely an acceleration of the MLD timeline to capitalize on current gains (grid failure, Mangas mining) before UAF deep strikes translate into measurable logistical shortfalls at the tactical edge.

C. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF Logistics: Under increasing strategic pressure due to UAF deep strikes on Class III (Fuel) infrastructure (Temryuk and Ryazan NPZ). This confirms a critical vulnerability that may limit the operational duration and depth of the 38th GMRB flank maneuver. UAF Logistics: Rail movement is restored. However, Class VIII (Medical) sustainment remains critically constrained (BaDM/Dnipro strikes still unresolved).

D. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains robust and responsive, demonstrating the ability to integrate deep fires, ground preparation, and IO within hours of UAF tactical successes (Fastiv restoration, Ryazan NPZ strike). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

UAF forces are kinetically engaged in deep battle but strategically prepared for the Stepnohorsk MLD. The readiness for reserve deployment is high, secured by the Fastiv restoration. Strategic strikes on RF depth (Ryazan) provide a long-term advantage, but immediate sustainment (power/medical) remains strained.

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Setbacks:

1. Continuation of systemic grid instability, including ZNPP temporary blackout.
2. RF deep strike targeting UAF UAV infrastructure (Mirnohrad). Successes:
3. Confirmation of Fastiv rail operational status.
4. Successful deep strikes on strategic RF fuel (Ryazan NPZ) and VPK targets.
5. Successful high-level strategic communication campaign (Zelenskyy/AFU Day address) to counter domestic IO crises.

C. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: EW assets immediately required along the BRAVO-BLOCK AoAs to suppress Mangas aerial mining operations. CRITICAL CONSTRAINT: Limited time remaining to move and position the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve before MLD initiation; the requirement for leading with mine-clearing assets imposes unavoidable friction.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF IO is focused on Denial and Dependency:

1. Denial: Pro-RF channels are actively disseminating false reports claiming the Fastiv rail hub is "completely destroyed," attempting to psychologically negate the UAF/UZ repair success.
2. Dependency: Amplification of statements allegedly made by CINCAF Syrskyi to frame UAF military operations as entirely dependent on Western aid, furthering the "Alliance Fracture" narrative.

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Domestic morale is being deliberately managed by the NCA. High-profile appearances by President Zelenskyy and HUR Chief Budanov on AFU Day (12:18Z, 12:19Z) aim to reinforce national resilience and confidence in the military leadership, countering the effect of grid blackouts and ongoing internal political friction (Skorod/TCC). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

C. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

Routine diplomatic signaling (Zelenskyy greeting Finland). RF propaganda channels (Rybar) are focusing on perceived UK-Norway defense coordination as an escalation, indicating RF concern over Western maritime/northern flank military cooperation.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

A. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(CRITICAL, HIGH CONFIDENCE) MLD Launch, Kinetic Escalation, and Reserve Interdiction. RF initiates the 37th GMRB MLD at Stepnohorsk NLT 2100Z 06 DEC. Simultaneously, Wave II/III Kh-101 strikes target the Zolotonosha rail bridge (Logistical choke point) to prevent Class V (Ammo) resupply. Mangas UAS activity increases along BRAVO-BLOCK movement routes, successfully slowing the mechanized reserve and forcing piecemeal commitment of mine-clearing assets. RF seeks a shallow tactical breakthrough within 48 hours, knowing their strategic fuel supply (Ryazan/Temryuk) is becoming constrained.

B. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(CRITICAL DANGER, HIGH CONFIDENCE) Zolotonosha Strike Success and Operational Isolation. RF executes the MLCOA, but the Kh-101 strike on the Zolotonosha bridge succeeds in severing the main logistics artery. Due to delays caused by Mangas mining, the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve arrives late or is decisively disrupted en route. The 38th GMRB executes the Huliaipole flank maneuver and achieves operational depth, capitalizing on the attrition and immobilization of UAF forces in the Southern Operational Zone, leading to partial isolation of the frontline defenders.

C. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. OPERATIONAL MANEUVER (J3): IMMEDIATE RESERVE DEPLOYMENT WITH COUNTER-MOBILITY LEAD.

   • Action: EXECUTE BRAVO-BLOCK MOVEMENT NOW (NLT 1500Z 06 DEC). All mechanized columns must deploy with dedicated Mine Clearing Line Charge (MCLC) systems and mine rollers leading the advance, accepting the risk of slower movement to preclude Mangas operational paralysis.
   • Justification: The operational window provided by Fastiv restoration is highly perishable. Risk of immediate movement must be accepted over the certainty of delay caused by aerial mining.

2. ELECTRONIC WARFARE / C-UAS (J6): CRITICAL COUNTER-MANGAS DEPLOYMENT.

   • Action: Deploy high-power EW jamming systems (e.g., Bukovel, focused directional jammers) to saturate the identified C2 frequencies along the BRAVO-BLOCK movement corridors. This is a higher priority than fixed AD deployment in secondary zones. (CR P1)
   • Justification: Neutralizing the Mangas threat is essential to maintaining maneuver tempo and preventing the collapse of the counter-attack potential.

3. AIR DEFENSE ALLOCATION (J3/AD): ABSOLUTE PROTECTION OF ZOLOTONOSHA.

   • Action: Maintain and reinforce the concentration of mobile SHORAD assets (Gepard/VADS/Patriot/NASAMS) around the Zolotonosha rail/road junction.
   • Justification: Preventing the logistical isolation of the Southern Front remains the single highest AD priority; all fixation efforts (Kyiv periphery) must be resisted.

4. LOGISTICS REDUNDANCY (J4): ZNPP CONTINGENCY POWER & CLASS VIII.

   • Action A (Power): Immediately activate pre-positioned high-capacity mobile generators (2MW+) for the most critical logistics hubs in Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava, prioritizing rail control centers and medical distribution points.
   • Action B (Medical): Urgently execute the previously recommended emergency cross-docking of Class VIII supplies to dispersed field hospitals.
   • Justification: The brief ZNPP blackout and confirmed systemic grid attacks show that relying on the fixed grid is untenable during the MLD. The medical supply chain must be self-sustaining.

//END OF REPORT//