JOINT INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (JISR) 25-12-06/115
TIME: 060930Z DEC 2025
SUBJECT: RF STRATEGIC PARALYSIS SUSTAINED: KIEV REAR-AREA MTO STRUCK; VDV UAV LOGISTICAL GAP EXPLOITABLE; MLD LAUNCH WINDOW TIGHTENS.
PRIORITY: P1 LOGISTICAL RESILIENCE (Fastiv/Lviv); P2 MLD COUNTER-ATTACK PREPARATION; P3 COUNTER-PARALYSIS IO.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
The RF strategic paralysis campaign continues to synchronize with the imminent Main Land Drive (MLD) at Stepnohorsk (Zaporizhzhia). Deep strikes are transitioning from overwhelming national grid attacks to precise interdiction of operational reserves and MTO sites.
- Deep Strike Continuation (FACT): RF Geran-2 UAV strikes are confirmed to have impacted Maintenance and Technical Support (MTO) warehouses in Vyshhorod, Kyiv Oblast.
- Vector Shift (FACT): A new UAV vector is tracking from Kyiv Oblast towards Korostyshiv, Zhytomyr Oblast. This confirms RF intent to pursue tactical targets west of the capital, likely targeting secondary C4ISR nodes or logistical depots that serve Western supply routes.
- Frontline Stability (FACT): UAF forces continue to hold defensive lines successfully in Sumy Oblast despite persistent localized Russian assaults, confirming sustained RF fixation efforts on the Northern flank.
- Critical Operational Window (JUDGMENT): The timeframe for maximum operational friction (systemic power instability combined with MLD launch) remains NLT 061200Z.
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Current conditions are stable. Localized smoke and damage assessment efforts continue in Lviv, Volyn, and the newly impacted Kyiv/Vyshhorod regions.
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
Control measures are focused on mitigating the cascading effects of the nationwide energy crisis while maintaining the readiness of the BRAVO-BLOCK operational reserve. The Vyshhorod strike complicates MTO resource distribution for units staged in the Kyiv vicinity.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Enemy Intent: To achieve physical and psychological paralysis across the UAF operational rear, synchronizing maximum friction (logistics/power/C2) with the 37th GMRB MLD launch at Stepnohorsk (Zaporizhzhia).
- Synchronized Interdiction: The strike on Vyshhorod MTO specifically targets the capability of UAF to repair, sustain, and deploy heavy equipment required for the counter-attack, complementing the rail/energy strikes further west (Lviv/Fastiv).
- Tactical Adaptation (Urban Warfare): Reports from RF sources confirm the use of seasoned reconnaissance personnel (1435th Regiment) engaged in heavy urban combat, indicating high confidence in securing urban terrain ahead of the main mechanized assault.
- Logistical Strain Indicator (CRITICAL NEW FINDING): Russian Airborne Forces (VDV), which are critical to the Stepnohorsk MLD (37th GMRB), are currently relying on public crowdfunding (via "Arkhangel Spetsnaza") for high-demand tactical assets (UAVs/Drones).
- Judgment: This confirms a persistent, high-value logistical gap for crucial technological assets within the RF Southern Group of Forces (SGF). While RF morale remains focused, this reliance is an exploitable vulnerability.
- Command and Control Effectiveness (HIGH): The coordinated execution of multi-domain attacks (fixed MLD timeline, nationwide kinetic strikes, persistent IO) indicates effective strategic C2 remains intact.
2.2. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Effective. The orchestration of strikes targeting rail, power, and now MTO sites across a broad theater demonstrates centralized, precise coordination.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
Readiness is characterized by high internal morale (due to Armed Forces Day commemoration) combating high material friction (due to deep strikes).
- Morale Leverage (FACT): The Commander-in-Chief's official video address and the simultaneous promotion of welfare programs ("Army+") serve as immediate and effective countermeasures to the RF psychological paralysis campaign. This high morale must be converted into tactical resilience.
- AD Overstretch (CONSTRAINT): The sustained RF fixation on Kyiv (Vyshhorod, Borodyanka, Korostyshiv vector) continues to draw AD attention away from the critical logistical center of gravity (Zolotonosha) and TPP protection (Lviv).
3.2. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
The primary constraint is the rapid establishment of energy-independent C4ISR and logistical throughput for the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve, which is now being targeted by kinetic strikes (Vyshhorod MTO). The timeframe for critical decision-making (pre-MLD) is now less than three hours.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
| Domain | Finding (FACT/Judgment) | Confidence | Operational Impact |
|---|
| UAF NCA Cohesion/Morale | Syrskyi’s address and UAF welfare promotions successfully reinforce national unity on Armed Forces Day (Dec 6th). | HIGH (Fact) | COUNTER-PARALYSIS: Effectively counters RF IO efforts aimed at leadership friction (Yermak demotion) and mobilization strain (Odesa TCC). |
| US Strategic Support | US State Dept confirms peace talks are contingent on Russia demonstrating serious, long-term commitment. Reagan Institute poll shows 62% US public support for UA victory. | HIGH (Fact) | STRATEGIC STABILITY: Confirms stable diplomatic backing and popular support, neutralizing RF narratives of Western abandonment. |
| RF Disinformation (Deep) | New, highly inflammatory propaganda attacking UAF leadership (Zalupnyi/Valerii Zaluzhnyi) using themes of cultural theft (Lavra gates) and anti-Semitic undertones. | MEDIUM (Judgment/IO) | NCA EROSION: Aimed at eroding internal political trust and creating friction between civil/military leadership on the day of the MLD. |
| RF Internal Strain | VDV relying on civilian fundraising for UAVs. Moscow theater director stabbed (internal security incident). | MEDIUM (Fact/Judgment) | EXPLOITABLE GAP: VDV logistical vulnerability is a high-value IO/EW target. Urban crime suggests internal friction, though operationally negligible. |
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
MLD Launch Supported by Critical Infrastructure Degradation NLT 1200Z.
- 060930Z - 061100Z: RF will prioritize localized fires and aerial mining ("Mangas") saturation of the BRAVO-BLOCK counter-attack corridors. UAV activity will be sustained along the Zhytomyr/Korostyshiv vector to draw UAF AD West, away from Zolotonosha.
- 061200Z: The 37th GMRB launches its MLD at Stepnohorsk. RF relies on the operational friction generated by the national power/logistics crisis and compromised UAF MTO capacity (Vyshhorod) to delay reinforcement and tactical mobility.
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
Logistical Collapse and Flank Encirclement.
- The combined kinetic damage to Fastiv, Lviv, and Vyshhorod successfully paralyzes the sustained deployment of the BRAVO-BLOCK due to lack of power for rail switching and MTO capacity.
- The 38th GMRB executes a mechanized bypass through the Huliaipole sector, successfully exploiting the diversion of UAF long-range fires (due to competing AD priorities).
- Result: Operational encirclement of UAF forward defenses at Stepnohorsk is achieved NLT 061800Z, forcing a mass tactical withdrawal under chaotic energy conditions.
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL DECISION POINTS)
| Event | Estimated Time Frame | Decision Point | Status Update |
|---|
| P1: Fastiv/Lviv Damage Assessment | 061000Z (IMMEDIATE) | J3 Engineering: Provide definitive estimates (MTTR - Mean Time To Repair) for limited heavy lift capacity restoration, focusing on non-electrical switching alternatives. | CRITICAL INFORMATION NEED |
| P2: BRAVO-BLOCK MCLC Execution | 061030Z (NLT) | J3 Maneuver: Confirm MCLC leads are fully autonomous (independent power/fuel) and initiating movement to AoAs despite "Mangas" RMAO risk. | HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD |
| P3: MLD Launch Window | 061200Z | J3 DEFENSE EXECUTION: Commence decisive counter-attack or committed defense against 37th GMRB breach attempt. | FIXED ENEMY TIMELINE |
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
| Priority | Gap Description | Required Action | Confidence Impact |
|---|
| P1 (CRITICAL - Logistics) | Functional Capacity of Fastiv/Lviv Rail Junctions. Precise damage assessment, especially relating to power for rail switching and signal control systems. | IMINT/UAS/Engineering Recon: Dedicated assessment of Fastiv/Lviv operational nodes. Prioritize electrical component damage assessment. | HIGH |
| P2 (CRITICAL - EW/RMAO) | "Mangas" C2 Frequencies and FOLs. Confirmation of specific C2 frequencies being used by the aerial mining systems targeting BRAVO-BLOCK AoAs. | EW/ISR RECON: Maximize spectral analysis and signal detection along the primary reserve movement corridors (AoAs) and potential RF forward launch sites. | HIGH |
| P3 (Kinetic Damage) | Vyshhorod MTO Operational Loss. Detailed estimate of replacement cost and MTTR for critical MTO assets lost in the Vyshhorod strike. | G4/Engineering Assessment: Immediate physical inspection and inventory of damaged facilities. | MEDIUM |
7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS
The primary mission remains the successful commitment and sustainment of BRAVO-BLOCK NLT 1200Z. The MLD threat outweighs all other deep strike consequences in the short term.
7.1. Operational Maneuver and Counter-Mobility (J3 / Engineer Command)
ACTION: P1 MCLC LEAD MANDATE; P2 DECOUPLE C4ISR.
- MCLC Execution: Confirm the movement of BRAVO-BLOCK reserves NLT 1030Z, with MCLC operations initiated immediately upon entry to known "Mangas" RMAO zones. Accept risk on initial route clearing.
- Logistical Resilience: Implement the decentralization mandate immediately. Command elements must operate C4ISR and vehicle maintenance functions (pumps, cranes, communications) using organic, distributed power sources (generators, batteries), completely independent of the national grid until the MLD threat is neutralized.
7.2. Air Defense and Critical Infrastructure Protection (J3 / AD Command)
ACTION: P1 PROTECT ZOLOTONOSHA/TPPS; P2 IGNORE KYIV FIXATION.
- High-Value Protection Focus (CRITICAL): Do not shift AD assets to counter the Vyshhorod/Korostyshiv UAV fixation vector. The Zolotonosha rail junction (logistics) and the Lviv/Dnipropetrovsk TPPs (generation) remain the highest kinetic priorities. Maintain current AD posture over these assets.
7.3. Information Warfare and Strategic Fires (G7 / LRSF Command)
ACTION: P1 EXPLOIT VDV GAP; P2 COUNTER-IO.
- UAV Logistical Vulnerability (G7/G2): Immediately launch an Information Warfare campaign targeting Russian civilian support channels, highlighting the failure of the Russian MOD to supply the VDV (who are fighting in Stepnohorsk) and their dependence on civilian charity for basic war materiel (UAVs). Amplify the perceived corruption/failure internally within Russia.
- Strategic Fires: Reiterate the continuous, high-density deep fire mission against the 38th GMRB assembly areas (Huliaipole sector) to prevent the MDCOA bypass scenario. Confirmed RF troop locations via reconnaissance reports (e.g., 1435th Regiment activity) should be used for dynamic targeting if outside the Stepnohorsk urban area.
//END OF JISR//
