JOINT INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (JISR) 25-12-06/114
TIME: 060900Z DEC 2025
SUBJECT: RF STRATEGIC PARALYSIS CAMPAIGN ESCALATES: OVER 700 ASSETS EMPLOYED; LVOV AND VOLYN OBLASTS HIT; MLD WINDOW IMMINENT.
PRIORITY: P1 LOGISTICAL RESILIENCE (Fastiv/Lviv); P2 MLD COUNTER-ATTACK PREPARATION; P3 COUNTER-PARALYSIS IO.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
The RF deep strike campaign is now confirmed as an unprecedented, strategic effort targeting nationwide operational paralysis, preceding the MLD NLT 1200Z.
- Strike Scope (FACT): Ukrainian Air Force reports RF utilized 653 UAVs and 51 missiles (Total 704 assets) in the overnight wave. AD success/suppression rate is reported at 615 targets.
- Area of Operation Expansion (CRITICAL): Kinetic strikes are confirmed to have impacted critical energy infrastructure (TETs/TPP) in Lviv Oblast and struck civilian/logistical facilities (warehouses/homes) in Lutsk, Volyn Oblast.
- National Paralysis Intent (JUDGMENT): The systemic damage now extends from the central logistical spine (Fastiv, Bila Tserkva, Lozova) to major power generation/distribution nodes in the West (Lviv), indicating an attempt to sever logistical and C4ISR redundancy across the entire operational rear.
- Kyiv Fixation: A residual UAV threat vector targeting Borodyanka (Kyiv Oblast) is active, sustaining the fixation on AD assets away from critical southern/central logistics.
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Clear conditions remain generally permissive for RF ISR and precision strike execution. Localized smoke and reduced air quality are reported in strike zones (Lutsk, Lviv, Bila Tserkva).
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
UAF remains fixed on the Stepnohorsk defensive battle. The deep strike success severely strains control measures, requiring simultaneous management of: 1) Immediate frontline preparation against the 37th GMRB MLD; 2) Nationwide emergency power stabilization; 3) Rapid logistical route repair/diversion, especially in the central axis where Fastiv remains compromised.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Enemy Intent: RF is executing a strategic effort to generate catastrophic operational friction and energy shortage NLT 1200Z, creating the optimal conditions for the 37th GMRB mechanized assault at Stepnohorsk.
- Massed Strike Capability (ESCALATED): RF demonstrated the capability to deploy over 700 coordinated aerial assets in a single wave, overwhelming UAF AD systems outside key protection zones.
- Tactical Adaptation (Deep Strike Focus): The confirmed targeting of DTEK TPPs across multiple regions, coupled with strikes on western logistics hubs (Lviv/Volyn), shifts the targeting emphasis from isolated disruption to systemic generation failure.
- Ground Activity (Zaporizhzhia): Reports of RF VDV/pro-Russian sources detailing combat near Prymorske (Zaporizhzhia direction) confirm continued kinetic pressure and fixation efforts in the Stepnohorsk vicinity, synchronizing with the strategic deep strike campaign.
- Logistics and Sustainment Status (Targeted): RF continues to exploit UAF logistical vulnerabilities. Minor indicators of RF internal strain (Moscow burglaries, India oil sanctions) are noted but do not offset the critical advantage RF is creating by crippling UAF logistics and energy supply in the immediate operational timeframe.
- Command and Control Effectiveness (HIGH): The C2 required to orchestrate a 700+ asset strike across eight or more oblasts is highly centralized, professional, and effective.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
Readiness remains severely challenged by the sudden, widespread loss of power generation capacity and logistical node destruction.
- Operational Constraint (Energy/Logistics): The expansion of kinetic strikes into Lviv and Volyn compromises the reliability of transit routes from NATO supply centers. Load shedding is now a critical, nationwide, operational constraint that must be incorporated into all maneuver plans, including the BRAVO-BLOCK counter-attack schedule.
- Tactical Success (AD): AD forces achieved a reported high kill/suppression rate (87%) against the overall RF strike package, preventing potentially catastrophic, complete national grid failure.
3.2. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
The critical constraint is the time required to restore logistical throughput capacity at Fastiv/Bila Tserkva and stabilize the national power grid, estimated to exceed the MLD launch window (NLT 1200Z).
- Critical Need: Immediate deployment of heavy engineering assets and localized, high-capacity electrical generators to maintain C4ISR and logistical (rail switching) functions at key transit nodes.
- AD Allocation: AD assets are over-stressed by the need to protect the immediate frontline (Stepnohorsk) and newly critical deep rear infrastructure (Lviv TPPs, Kyiv/Borodyanka fixation).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
| Domain | Finding (FACT/Judgment) | Confidence | Operational Impact |
|---|
| UAF National Cohesion | Widespread commemoration of Armed Forces Day (Dec 6th) and messaging from ZSU leadership (46th Airmobile Brigade, AF Commander). | HIGH (Fact) | INTERNAL RESILIENCE: Successfully counter-balances the shock of deep strikes and reinforces UAF strategic resolve immediately prior to the MLD. |
| RF Strategic IO | Alleged IAEA report stating the Chernobyl New Safe Confinement (NSC) is failing and requires major repair. | MEDIUM (Judgment/IO) | PSYCHOLOGICAL WARFARE: RF IO is attempting to introduce a high-impact, existential fear narrative (nuclear catastrophe) timed to coincide with physical kinetic attacks, maximizing psychological paralysis. |
| RF Political IO | Pro-RF channels pushing narratives regarding the alleged "demotion" of Andriy Yermak (Head of Presidential Office). | MEDIUM (Judgment/IO) | NCA DISRUPTION: Continuation of the "internal friction" theme (following the Skorod arrest) aimed at undermining the legitimacy and cohesion of the National Command Authority (NCA) during the MLD window. |
| Geopolitical Strain | Reports (Bloomberg) that India is decreasing Russian oil purchases to a minimum due to sanctions. | HIGH (Fact) | LONG-TERM ECONOMIC ADVANTAGE: Confirms the sustained efficacy of Western sanctions, degrading RF long-term revenue streams, but offers no immediate tactical relief. |
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
MLD Launch Supported by Critical Infrastructure Degradation NLT 1200Z.
- 060900Z - 061100Z: RF will sustain pressure in the Zaporizhzhia sector (Prymorske activity) while maintaining EW density ("Mangas" RMAO C2 protection) to isolate the Stepnohorsk area.
- RF will conduct localized, focused fires on known UAF MCLC (Mine Clearing Line Charge) staging areas to prevent effective clearing of the "Mangas" minefields along the BRAVO-BLOCK AoAs.
- The 37th GMRB launches its MLD at Stepnohorsk NLT 061200Z, relying on systemic UAF energy/logistical paralysis (Fastiv, Lviv, nationwide load shedding) to delay effective reinforcement and sustainment of the forward defenses.
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
Logistical Collapse and Deep Isolation.
- The coordinated damage across Lviv, Volyn, and Fastiv successfully cuts rail traffic viability across the entire Western/Central axis for 24+ hours.
- Lack of stable power prevents the rapid deployment of the BRAVO-BLOCK armored reserves, which are critically needed to counter the MLD.
- The 38th GMRB (Huliaipole flank) executes a rapid, mechanized bypass, facilitated by the complete diversion of UAF AD and ISR assets to the national infrastructure crisis, achieving operational encirclement of UAF defenders at Stepnohorsk NLT 061800Z.
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL DECISION POINTS)
| Event | Estimated Time Frame | Decision Point | Status Update |
|---|
| P1: BRAVO-BLOCK MCLC Engagement | 060900Z (IMMEDIATE) | J3 MCLC/Logistics: Commit local, decentralized fuel/power to sustain MCLC and heavy vehicle readiness, regardless of national grid status. | CRITICAL EXECUTION WINDOW |
| P2: Fastiv/Lviv Logistical Diversion | 061100Z (NLT) | J3 Engineering: Confirm alternate road transport pipelines are fully operational and rerouted away from energy-dependent rail switching yards in the Central and Western Oblasts. | CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE FAILURE |
| P3: MLD Launch Window | 061200Z | J3 DEFENSE EXECUTION: Commence decisive counter-attack or committed defense against 37th GMRB breach attempt. | FIXED ENEMY TIMELINE |
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
| Priority | Gap Description | Required Action | Confidence Impact |
|---|
| P1 (CRITICAL - Logistics) | Functional Capacity of Fastiv/Lviv Rail Junctions. Precise damage assessment and estimated time required for limited heavy lift capacity restoration, including power required for switching operations. | IMINT/UAS/Engineering Recon: Dedicated assessment of Fastiv/Lviv operational nodes. Prioritize electrical component damage assessment. | HIGH |
| P2 (CRITICAL - EW/RMAO) | "Mangas" Persistence and Targeting. Confirmation of continued aerial mining operations near BRAVO-BLOCK AoAs and the specific C2 frequencies being used. | EW/ISR RECON: Maximize spectral analysis and signal detection along the primary reserve movement corridors (AoAs) until MLD launch. | HIGH |
| P3 (IO/Counter-Propaganda) | Chernobyl NSC Status Validation. Verification of the IAEA/NSC maintenance claim to neutralize RF information warfare efforts related to nuclear risk. | STRATCOM/G2 Liaison: Immediate contact with IAEA or operational control authority to confirm/deny report validity. | MEDIUM |
7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS
The enemy has executed maximum strategic pressure. UAF must respond with distributed resilience and unwavering focus on the MLD launch window. The strategic rear must not become a black hole for resources.
7.1. Operational Maneuver and Counter-Mobility (J3 / Engineer Command)
ACTION: P1 SUSTAIN MCLC LEAD; P2 DISTRIBUTED POWER MANDATE.
- MCLC Execution: Direct all BRAVO-BLOCK unit commanders to assume all AoAs are compromised by "Mangas" RMAO. MCLC leads are mandatory. Focus local, organic power generation (diesel/gas generators) for communication, maintenance, and C4ISR functions for the reserve units, decoupling them from the strained national grid.
- Logistical Resilience: Establish an immediate, priority road transport corridor for high-priority Class V (Ammo) from Western Oblasts, bypassing Lviv/Volyn rail nodes and utilizing secondary road networks with independent refueling points.
7.2. Air Defense and Critical Infrastructure Protection (J3 / AD Command)
ACTION: P1 PROTECT GENERATION; P2 IGNORE KYIV FIXATION.
- TPP Protection (CRITICAL): Immediately shift all available mobile AD assets (including remaining SHORAD) to high-value power generation facilities and transmission nodes in Lviv and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts to prevent cascading failure.
- UAV Assessment: Maintain observation of the Kyiv/Borodyanka UAV vector but do not divert strategic AD assets (PATRIOT/NASAMS) unless direct NCA C2 is threatened. The Poltava/Zolotonosha vector (logistics) and TPP protection remain higher priority.
7.3. Information Warfare and Strategic Fires (G7 / LRSF Command)
ACTION: P1 NEUTRALIZE RF IO; P2 HULIAIPOLE FIRES.
- Counter-Paralysis IO (G7): Launch a coordinated communication campaign immediately reinforcing Armed Forces Day messaging. Simultaneously, issue a factual counter-statement regarding the Chernobyl NSC to preemptively neutralize the nuclear fear narrative. Frame the RF strategy as a panicked attempt to terrorize civilians due to military failures.
- LRSF Fires: Reiterate the high-density deep fire mission against the 38th GMRB assembly areas (Huliaipole sector) NLT 060900Z. Continuous suppression is required to prevent the MDCOA flank exploitation.
//END OF JISR//
