JOINT INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (JISR) 25-12-06/113
TIME: 060830Z DEC 2025
SUBJECT: RF STRATEGIC DEEP STRIKE REACHES MAXIMUM INTENSITY; CONFIRMED MULTI-DOMAIN PARALYSIS EFFORT; EU FINANCIAL SUPPORT CRITICALITY.
PRIORITY: P1 MLD DEFENSE EXECUTION; P2 FASTIV LOGISTICS RECOVERY/AD SHIFT; P3 COUNTER-FLANK FIRES (HULIAIPOLE).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
The operational picture confirms a highly coordinated, strategic RF deep strike campaign designed to achieve pre-MLD operational paralysis. Strikes targeted logistics, energy, and key rear infrastructure.
- Logistics Interdiction (CONFIRMED): Visual confirmation (ASTRA BDA) of severe damage to the Fastiv Railway Station (Kyiv Oblast) rail junction, confirming the node is functionally compromised for heavy rail traffic. Additional confirmed strikes hit critical infrastructure in Bila Tserkva (Kyiv Oblast) and Lozova (Kharkiv Oblast), further degrading the logistics chain supplying the central and southern fronts.
- Energy Interdiction (ESCALATION MAXIMUM): Ministry of Energy confirms massed missile and UAV strikes targeted generation, distribution, and transmission infrastructure across EIGHT OBLASTS (Kyiv, Chernihiv, Lviv, Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv). Ukrenergo subsequently increased load shedding up to 2.5-3 simultaneous queues, indicating significant grid stability degradation. This maximizes the civilian and military strain immediately preceding the MLD.
- UAS Threat Vector (SHIFT CONFIRMED): The group of UAVs previously tracked southwest from Sumy Oblast is now confirmed to be inbound toward Poltava Oblast (07:54Z). Poltava hosts critical logistical and command nodes; this confirms continued RF intent to strike deep into UAF operational depth.
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Clear conditions remain generally permissive for RF ISR, fixed-wing operations, and deep strike guidance systems, allowing maximum strike accuracy. Note: Confirmed strike in Bila Tserkva resulted in significant smoke and reduced air quality (07:41Z), which may locally impact low-level ISR.
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
UAF forces remain fixed on the decisive defensive battle at Stepnohorsk. The simultaneous, widespread infrastructure damage now imposes a critical dual constraint: immediate tactical execution (MCLC leads) and strategic rear stabilization (AD/Logistics). Control measures are strained by the requirement to manage both the front line MLD threat and the national energy crisis.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Enemy Intent: RF intent is confirmed to maximize the "shock and awe" effect of the deep strike campaign to achieve operational paralysis in the UAF rear, guaranteeing the success of the 37th GMRB MLD NLT 1200Z. The transition to crippling energy infrastructure across 8 oblasts (instead of isolated targets) demonstrates an escalation of strategic resource targeting.
- Tactical Adaptation (ISR/Kinetic Synchronization): RF military blogs are utilizing imagery intelligence (IMINT) of UAF defensive measures (e.g., Fastiv damage confirmation, video of Bila Tserkva strike) immediately for IO purposes, demonstrating robust ISR and rapid information weaponization.
- Fires Coordination: Confirmed MLRS fires by the Yug Group near Konstantinovka (08:00Z) indicates continued ground pressure and fixation efforts simultaneous with deep strikes.
- Logistics and Sustainment Status (UAF TARGETED): RF kinetic efforts are exclusively focused on disrupting UAF logistics (rail, road junctions, energy for rail switching/loading). This indicates RF assesses UAF logistics as the decisive weakness pre-MLD. RF internal logistics strain (due to Ryazan BDA) is being offset by achieving a critical UAF logistical advantage in the immediate MLD timeframe.
- Command and Control Effectiveness (HIGH): The execution of synchronized strikes across 8 oblasts and coordination with kinetic activity near Konstantinovka confirms robust, centralized, and highly effective RF strategic C2.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
While national cohesion remains high (Armed Forces Day celebrations are robustly amplified across official channels), UAF physical and energy resilience is significantly degraded.
- Operational Constraint (Logistics/Energy): The widespread energy damage and confirmed logistical damage (Fastiv) pose an immediate risk to the MLD counter-attack plan. Load shedding directly impacts C4ISR, medical readiness, and heavy equipment rail transport schedules.
- Strategic Resolve (Positive): High-level national messaging maintains strategic resolve despite setbacks, capitalizing on Armed Forces Day to reinforce national unity. Fundraising efforts (Sternenko reaching 1 million UAH) demonstrate continued civil society support for defense needs.
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- Success: Strategic messaging success via national day commemorations; confirmed continued public mobilization for AD resources.
- Setback (CRITICAL): Massed deep strike attacks targeting energy infrastructure in 8 oblasts, immediately resulting in extensive, nationwide load shedding. Confirmed severe kinetic damage to critical logistical infrastructure (Fastiv, Bila Tserkva, Lozova).
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
The requirement for AD resources is now CRITICAL BEYOND FRONTLINE NEEDS. The need for engineering/AD assets to stabilize the rear (Fastiv, Poltava vector) directly competes with AD requirements for the front line (Phase Line BRAVO).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
| Domain | Finding (FACT/Judgment) | Confidence | Operational Impact |
|---|
| RF International IO | Hungary blocks €90bn EU reserve financial plan for Ukraine (Politico/ASTRA). | HIGH (Fact/Judgment) | CRITICAL LOGISTICAL GAP: Signals internal EU disunity precisely when UAF requires maximum long-term financial support. Exploited by RF IO to convey inevitability of strategic abandonment. |
| UAF National Cohesion | High synchronization of Armed Forces Day messaging (ZSU Coordination Staff) and focus on St. Nicholas Day tradition. | HIGH (Fact) | INTERNAL RESILIENCE: Successfully centers national identity and wartime morale against RF kinetic and IO pressure. |
| RF Internal Morale | TASS/VTsIOM poll claiming "Two thirds of Russians see bright future." | HIGH (Fact/Judgment) | MORALE BOOST/IO: Standard high-confidence domestic IO aimed at maintaining internal political stability and justifying current operational risk. |
| RF Propaganda | Claims of UAF "girl drone operators" attacking civilians (Butusov Plus). | HIGH (Fact/Judgment) | DEHUMANIZATION: Direct attempt to erode UAF legitimacy and support for deep strike capabilities by generating atrocity narratives focused on civilian targets. |
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
MLD Launch Supported by Crippled Energy and Logistical Network NLT 1200Z.
- 060830Z - 061100Z: RF will sustain AD/logistical fixation with follow-on strikes, prioritizing the Poltava UAV vector engagement and potential continuation of strikes on infrastructure targets to maximize load shedding and C2 disruption.
- RF commences heavy, coordinated artillery and close air support preparation along Phase Line BRAVO (Stepnohorsk).
- The 37th GMRB launches its MLD at Stepnohorsk NLT 061200Z, expecting logistical failure (Fastiv) and energy constraints to severely limit UAF BRAVO-BLOCK maneuverability and sustainment.
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
Strategic Isolation and Flank Exploitation.
- The systemic energy damage (8 oblasts) proves sufficient to halt all non-essential rail movement (including logistics resupply) for 12+ hours across the central axis.
- The BRAVO-BLOCK reserve movement is stalled, not only by "Mangas" RMAO but also by energy shortages affecting heavy vehicle maintenance, fueling, and MCLC deployment speed.
- The 38th GMRB successfully exploits this paralysis, bypassing Huliaipole and achieving operational fire superiority over the exposed flanks of the main UAF defensive positions at Stepnohorsk NLT 061800Z.
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL DECISION POINTS)
| Event | Estimated Time Frame | Decision Point | Status Update |
|---|
| P1: BRAVO-BLOCK MCLC Engagement | 060900Z (IMMEDIATE) | J3 MCLC/Logistics: Confirm MCLC leads operating effectively and that local fuel/power generation is secured for the reserve movement. | CRITICAL EXECUTION WINDOW |
| P2: Poltava UAV Interdiction | 061000Z (NLT) | G2/J3 AD: Confirm AD allocation for Poltava vector engagement and assessment of damage if strike succeeds. Zolotonosha remains secondary/tertiary target. | IMMINENT THREAT |
| P3: Fastiv/Logistics Recovery | 061100Z (NLT) | J3 Engineering: Confirm rapid repair teams are on site (Fastiv, Bila Tserkva) and that alternate road transport assets are deployed to move essential Class V supplies. | CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE FAILURE |
| P4: MLD Launch Window | 061200Z | J3 DEFENSE EXECUTION: Commence decisive counter-attack or committed defense against 37th GMRB breach attempt. | FIXED ENEMY TIMELINE |
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
| Priority | Gap Description | Required Action | Confidence Impact |
|---|
| P1 (CRITICAL - Logistics/Infrastructure) | Functional Capacity of Fastiv Rail Junction. Precise estimate of repair time required for heavy lift capacity given the visual confirmation of damage. | IMINT/UAS/Engineering Recon: Detailed assessment of critical rail components (switching, track integrity) at Fastiv and confirmation of alternate route capacity. | HIGH |
| P2 (CRITICAL - Air Defense) | Poltava UAV Target Designation. Confirmation of specific high-value target within Poltava Oblast (e.g., fuel depot, rail hub, C2 node). | SIGINT/RADAR/AD TRACKING: Maximum resource allocation to confirm target intent before engagement. | HIGH |
| P3 (EW/RMAO) | "Mangas" Persistence and C2. Confirmation of current RMAO density on AoAs and the effectiveness of UAF EW jamming against "Mangas" C2. | EW/ISR RECON: Immediate post-jamming assessment of AoAs using specialized detection systems (LRSF and ground-based radar). | MEDIUM |
7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS
The escalating deep strike campaign confirms that RF believes logistical/energy paralysis is key to MLD success. UAF must respond with maximum speed at the front and aggressive defense of rear logistics and power generation.
7.1. Operational Maneuver and Counter-Mobility (J3 / Engineer Command)
ACTION: P1 MAINTAIN MCLC PACE; P3 MOBILIZE LOGISTICAL RESILIENCE.
- MCLC Execution: Maintain CRITICAL PACE for MCLC and roller assets leading BRAVO-BLOCK. Issue standby orders for local, distributed power generation assets to sustain maintenance and C2 functions for the reserve elements independent of the national grid status.
- Fastiv Contingency: Divert all heavy rail traffic immediately. Utilize engineering assets and alternate road transport to establish a high-throughput road bridge bypass around the Fastiv damage zone NLT 061200Z for high-priority Class V (Ammo).
7.2. Air Defense and Critical Infrastructure Protection (J3 / AD Command)
ACTION: P2 AD PROTECTION FOR POLTAVA AND LOGISTICS NODES.
- Poltava Prioritization: Immediately redeploy available mobile AD assets (SHORAD) to protect the most likely critical nodes in Poltava (e.g., fuel storage, large rail marshalling yards). This vector is now the highest kinetic threat outside the immediate front.
- Energy Defense: Task Regional AD commands to prioritize protection of operational rail switching yards and critical distribution nodes (substations) required for logistical movement, even if it means temporary reduction of coverage for non-essential civilian infrastructure.
7.3. Strategic Fires and Diplomacy (J3 / LRSF Command / G7)
ACTION: P3 HULIAIPOLE SUPPRESSION; DIPLOMATIC COUNTERMEASURES.
- Huliaipole Suppression: Reaffirm the high-density deep fire mission (LRSF/HIMARS) against the 38th GMRB assembly areas (Huliaipole sector) NLT 060900Z to mitigate the MDCOA flank threat.
- Diplomatic Tasking (G7): Immediately task diplomatic channels (Foreign Ministry/Miami Delegation) to initiate high-level consultations with EU partners (especially Germany/France/Italy) regarding the Hungarian block on the €90bn fund. Emphasize that the kinetic escalation (8 oblasts) makes reliable future funding a strategic security imperative.
//END OF JISR//
