JOINT INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (JISR) 25-12-06/112
TIME: 060735Z DEC 2025
SUBJECT: MLD PRE-LAUNCH STRIKE PHASE INTENSIFIES; FASTIV RAIL INTERDICTION CONFIRMED (KYIV OBLAST); NEW ASSET THREAT (KORT UAV) IDENTIFIED.
PRIORITY: P1 BRAVO-BLOCK MCLC EXECUTION; P2 FASTIV LOGISTICS RECOVERY/AD SHIFT; P3 COUNTER-FLANK FIRES (HULIAIPOLE).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
The operational picture confirms the decisive phase of the RF deep strike campaign is underway, supporting the Stepnohorsk Main Land Drive (MLD) NLT 061200Z. RF efforts are now simultaneously targeting strategic logistics (rail) and critical energy generation in the operational rear.
- Logistics Interdiction (CRITICAL): Confirmed kinetic strike (Missile/UAV) caused significant damage to the Fastiv Railway Station (Kyiv Oblast) (07:28Z). This node is vital for linking Western Ukrainian logistics supply to the central and southern fronts. This strike is assessed as a deliberate, high-payoff effort to delay or prevent the logistical sustainment of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve and Phase Line BRAVO defenses.
- Energy Interdiction (ESCALATION): Confirmed strike on Odesa Oblast energy infrastructure, resulting in localized power and heat supply disruptions (07:02Z). This diverts AD resources and complicates civilian/military synchronization along the Southern Operational Zone flank.
- UAS Threat Vector (NEW): A new group of UAS is confirmed over Sumy Oblast, moving southwest (07:08Z). This indicates either a follow-up strike on key central logistical hubs (like Zolotonosha or Cherkasy) or a continued attempt to stretch UAF Air Defense resources away from critical targets.
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Clear conditions persist across all major axes, remaining highly permissive for RF ISR, fixed-wing operations, and deep strike accuracy.
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Friendly forces remain postured for decisive defensive action at Stepnohorsk. The primary focus remains the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve movement led by Mine Clearing Line Charges (MCLC) to overcome the "Mangas" RMAO threat. New kinetic damage (Fastiv, Odesa) requires immediate reallocation of engineering and AD assets to stabilize critical rear areas while maintaining the operational tempo at the front.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Enemy Intent: RF is committed to a synchronized MLD NLT 1200Z, utilizing operational paralysis in the UAF rear to guarantee success at the tactical point of main effort (Stepnohorsk). The Fastiv strike indicates RF willingness to escalate risk to the strategic transportation network, impacting NATO supply lines.
- Tactical Adaptation (Judgment): RF sources acknowledge the decentralized, unit-level improvisation of anti-drone armor ("Tanks-Dandelions") (07:31Z). While indicating an urgent response to UAF FPV superiority, the decentralized nature suggests constraints in providing a rapid, centralized solution.
- New UAF Deep Strike Capability Concern: RF milbloggers are analyzing the characteristics of the reported Ukrainian jet-powered UAV "Kort" (07:01Z). This suggests RF is tracking the introduction of a new, potentially high-speed, long-range asset in the UAF deep battle arsenal, validating continued UAF deep strike effectiveness (Ryazan BDA confirmed 07:11Z).
- Localized Pressure: RF claims success in capturing VSU personnel in Vovchansk (Kharkiv Oblast) (07:22Z), indicating ongoing pressure in the Northern Operational Zone designed to maintain diversion of UAF tactical reserves and media focus.
2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
RF logistical strain remains high due to confirmed UAF deep strikes on POL facilities (Ryazan confirmed hit again 07:11Z). This maintains the vulnerability of the 37th GMRB's push. However, the successful strike on Fastiv will severely degrade UAF ability to rapidly redistribute Class V (Ammunition) and Class I/III (Personnel/Fuel) to the Southern Front, potentially giving the RF a net logistics advantage in the immediate MLD window (0800Z - 1400Z).
2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
RF C2 remains highly effective and synchronized, transitioning seamlessly from Western fixation (Lutsk) to Central/Southern interdiction (Fastiv/Odesa). The timing of these strikes, immediately preceding the MLD launch window, confirms robust and centralized operational planning.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
UAF Force Posture is high, supported by the national cohesion surrounding Armed Forces Day (06 Dec) commemorations, heavily promoted by high-level leadership (07:01Z - 07:25Z).
- Operational Constraint (MCLC): The primary operational constraint remains the execution speed of MCLC assets required to clear AoAs for BRAVO-BLOCK.
- Strategic Constraint (Logistics/AD): The confirmed rail damage at Fastiv introduces a new, critical strategic constraint, potentially delaying movement of heavy equipment and essential supplies to the Southern Axis, compounding the existing Air Defense (AD) shortage confirmed by new fundraising appeals (07:23Z).
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- Success: Confirmed follow-up BDA on Ryazan (RF rear area) via drone strikes. Maximized national cohesion during the MLD preparation phase.
- Setback: Critical kinetic damage to the Fastiv rail node, severely impacting logistical flow to the central/southern axes. Energy infrastructure damage in Odesa Oblast.
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Immediate requirements now include AD/Engineering resources for immediate logistical recovery in the Fastiv region, while simultaneously ensuring MCLC assets are fully supported for the BRAVO-BLOCK advance. Long-Range Fires (LRSF) targeting the 38th GMRB flank remains an urgent P3 requirement.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
| Domain | Finding (FACT/Judgment) | Confidence | Operational Impact |
|---|
| UAF National Cohesion | Massive, synchronized celebrations across all services and command levels for Armed Forces Day (06 Dec) (07:01Z - 07:25Z). | HIGH (Fact) | MAXIMUM COHESION: Successfully centers national identity around military defense during the critical MLD window, providing robust counter-narrative to RF IO efforts. |
| UAF Strategic Resolve | General Syrsky states Ukraine will continue fighting even if US aid fails (07:32Z). | HIGH (Fact/Judgment) | STRATEGIC SIGNALING: Hardens the national posture externally and internally, demonstrating preparedness for a long war regardless of diplomatic outcomes (Miami talks). D-S belief supports Disagreement on Peace Terms (0.068912). |
| UAF Resource Mobilization | High-profile civil fundraising for AD interceptors (Sternenko) (07:23Z). | HIGH (Fact) | Confirms acute resource gap (AD systems) in light of escalated RF deep strikes (Fastiv, Odesa, Lutsk). |
| RF Internal IO | Focus on localized tactical successes (Vovchansk POWs) and highlighting UAF capabilities (Kort UAV) (07:22Z, 07:01Z). | MEDIUM (Fact/Judgment) | Attempts to balance the narrative following the continued UAF deep strike success (Ryazan). Analysis of "Kort" serves to inflate the perceived threat level of UAF capabilities. |
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
MLD Launch Supported by Mined AoAs and Logistical Paralysis NLT 1200Z.
- 060800Z - 061200Z: RF ISR (UAS/Fixed Wing) intensifies over the Southern Axis to observe the impact of the Fastiv/Odesa strikes and monitor UAF BRAVO-BLOCK reserve movement.
- RF initiates heavy, coordinated artillery preparation fire along Phase Line BRAVO (Stepnohorsk) to fix defenders.
- The 37th GMRB launches its MLD at Stepnohorsk NLT 061200Z, confident that UAF counter-attack will be hampered by RMAO delay and rear-area logistical paralysis resulting from the Fastiv rail interdiction.
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
Strategic Isolation and MLD Breach Exploitation.
- The Fastiv rail damage proves catastrophic (e.g., bridge span destruction or critical bottleneck rendered unusable for heavy lift). UAF Engineering Corps requires 48+ hours for repair, effectively isolating the central-southern axis from Western heavy equipment and Class V resupply.
- The BRAVO-BLOCK reserve movement is stalled or suffers 30%+ attrition clearing the "Mangas" RMAO fields, leading to piecemeal commitment.
- Simultaneously, the 38th GMRB executes a successful, decisive flanking maneuver around Huliaipole, capitalizing on UAF attention diversion and resource shortages caused by the deep strikes, resulting in the operational encirclement of UAF forward positions at Stepnohorsk NLT 061800Z.
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL DECISION POINTS)
| Event | Estimated Time Frame | Decision Point | Status Update |
|---|
| P1: BRAVO-BLOCK MCLC Engagement | 060800Z (IMMEDIATE) | J3 MCLC CONFIRMATION: Confirm MCLC leads engaged and moving on all AoAs toward Phase Line BRAVO. | CRITICAL EXECUTION WINDOW |
| P2: Fastiv/Odesa Damage Assessment | 060900Z (NLT) | G2/J3 Engineering: Confirm BDA and estimate repair timelines for Fastiv rail and Odesa energy. Implement immediate rail diversion plan. | NEW CRITICAL TASK |
| P3: Counter-38 GMRB Fires | 060900Z (NLT) | J3/G2 TARGETING: Authorize deep fire missions (LRSF) against 38th GMRB assembly areas at Huliaipole. | IMMINENT OPPORTUNITY |
| P4: MLD Launch Window | 061200Z | J3 DEFENSE EXECUTION: Commence decisive counter-attack or committed defense against 37th GMRB breach attempt. | FIXED ENEMY TIMELINE |
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
| Priority | Gap Description | Required Action | Confidence Impact |
|---|
| P1 (CRITICAL - Logistics/Infrastructure) | Fastiv Rail Junction Functional Capacity (BDA). Precise confirmation of damage extent (rail lines, switching gear, bridge structures) and estimated timeline for heavy transport recovery. | IMINT/UAS/HUMINT: Detailed BDA of the Fastiv rail hub and surrounding alternate routes. | HIGH |
| P2 (CRITICAL - Air Defense) | Sumy UAV Vector Intent. Confirmation of final target designation for the UAV group moving SW from Sumy. | SIGINT/RADAR/AD TRACKING: High-priority tracking and resource allocation for the Sumy group. | HIGH |
| P3 (EW/RMAO) | "Mangas" Persistence and C2. Confirmation of current RMAO density on AoAs and the effectiveness of UAF EW jamming against "Mangas" C2. | EW/ISR RECON: Immediate post-jamming assessment of AoAs using specialized detection systems. | HIGH |
7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS
The response must be dual-layered: aggressive offensive action at the front (MCLC/Fires) combined with immediate defensive stabilization of the operational rear (Logistics/AD).
7.1. Operational Maneuver and Counter-Mobility (J3 / Engineer Command)
ACTION: P1 EXECUTE MCLC LED MOVEMENT AND SECURE LOGISTICS ALTERNATIVES.
- MCLC Execution: Re-confirm movement order for MCLC and roller assets to lead BRAVO-BLOCK columns NOW. Speed is the only factor mitigating the RMAO/Logistics synergy threat.
- Fastiv Contingency: J3 Logistics, in coordination with Engineering, must immediately activate pre-planned alternate rail/road diversion routes, bypassing the Fastiv node, and deploy engineering assets for rapid assessment and repair NLT 060900Z.
7.2. Fires and Suppression (J3 / LRSF Command)
ACTION: P3 HULIAIPOLE SUPPRESSION AND P4 POL INTERDICTION.
- Huliaipole Suppression: Execute high-density deep fires (LRSF/HIMARS) against the 38th GMRB forward assembly and fuel/ammo staging areas in the Huliaipole sector NLT 060900Z. This is the only way to prevent the MDCOA flank maneuver.
- Final POL Strike: Execute final, targeted deep strikes against RF POL distribution targets feeding the 37th GMRB before 061000Z to maximize the effect of UAF's prior deep battle success (Ryazan).
7.3. Strategic Air Defense and Resource Allocation (J3 / AD Command)
ACTION: P2 AD RESOURCE SHIFT.
- Fastiv AD: Immediately redeploy high-mobility SHORAD (e.g., Gepard/VADS/NASAMS batteries if available) to provide temporary coverage for the Fastiv repair teams and the newly activated rail/road diversion nodes.
- Sumy Vector: Prioritize tracking and engagement of the Sumy UAV group (P2 Gap), confirming whether its intent is fixation (Kyiv) or kinetic strike (Central Logistics). Assign sufficient AD to protect the critical Zolotonosha rail junction until the threat vector is clarified.
//END OF JISR//
