JOINT INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (JISR) 25-12-06/111
TIME: 060800Z DEC 2025
SUBJECT: MLD PREPARATION PHASE COMPLETE; WESTERN LOGISTICS INTERDICTION CONFIRMED (LUTSK COMMERCIAL); CHORNOBYL SHELTER DAMAGE REPORTED. STEPNOHORSK MLD NLT 1200Z.
PRIORITY: P1 BRAVO-BLOCK MCLC EXECUTION; P2 COUNTER-FLANK FIRES (HULIAIPOLE); P3 POL INTERDICTION WINDOW CLOSING.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
The operational picture is crystallizing around the Stepnohorsk Main Land Drive (MLD) NLT 061200Z. RF deep strikes have confirmed dual-vector targeting (Energy and Logistics).
- Western Axis (CONFIRMED BDA): Kinetic strike confirmed against Lutsk, specifically resulting in the destruction of commercial logistics assets (food warehouses) (ASTRA 06:41:38). This confirms RF intent to degrade all levels of Western logistics, civilian and military. UAV activity confirmed targeting Bila Tserkva (Kyiv Oblast), indicating ongoing fixation efforts to draw AD resources away from the primary logistical corridor (Zolotonosha).
- Strategic Infrastructure Risk (NEW): The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that the Chornobyl New Safe Confinement (NSC) protective structure is no longer fully capable of its safety function following a previous drone strike (06:40:34). This introduces a critical strategic risk and demands potential reallocation of AD assets for defense stabilization, although not directly supporting the MLD.
- Southern Axis: 37th GMRB remains in the final assembly phase for the MLD. UAF deep strike damage to RF fuel infrastructure (Ryazan, Temryuk) is confirmed by Russian sources (TASS 06:38:14, Dvay Mayora 06:43:04), maintaining the window of exploitation.
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Clear conditions persist across all major axes, remaining highly permissive for RF ISR, fixed-wing operations (Huliaipole), and deep strike accuracy.
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
UAF Air Defense successfully mitigated the massed KR wave, but residual UAV activity is shifting focus (Kyiv -> Bila Tserkva) to maintain pressure. The key friendly disposition remains the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve, which must execute immediate movement led by Mine Clearing Line Charges (MCLC) to defeat the "Mangas" RMAO threat, as the MLD launch window approaches.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Enemy Intent: RF is committed to the synchronized MLD/Flank Maneuver. The successful Western interdiction (Lutsk) achieves the objective of forcing UAF to divert attention and potential AD/reserve resources westward, maximizing the chances of success for the MLD at Stepnohorsk.
- Tactical Shift (RMAO): The deployment of the "Mangas" RMAO (Rapid Mine-laying Operations) preceding the MLD is a successful hybrid tactic, effectively using technology to achieve a counter-mobility objective against UAF reserves before contact is even made.
- Deep Strike Emphasis (Judgment): RF sources are explicitly promoting UAVs ("Gerani") as the "main strike force" (07:00:04) and concurrently recruiting contract soldiers for specific battalions (Kotsnews 06:37:52). This reinforces the D-S belief (0.081697) regarding the continued use and prioritization of loitering munitions and specialized UAV operator units (D-S belief 0.033663).
2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
RF logistical strain is verified. UAF deep strikes against POL facilities (Ryazan, Temryuk) are impacting sustainment flow to the Southern Group of Forces (SGF). The timeline for maximizing this POL vulnerability is now compressed, with a window closure NLT 061400Z, coinciding with the MLD launch phase. RF personnel sustainment is being addressed through aggressive, visible contract recruitment appeals.
2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
RF C2 remains effective, demonstrating tight synchronization between deep kinetic strikes, flank shaping (Huliaipole), and the preparation for the main mechanized assault (Stepnohorsk). The rapid shift in AD fixation targets (Lutsk BDA complete -> Bila Tserkva) indicates adaptive targeting C2.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
UAF forces are postured for a decisive defensive operation (Stepnohorsk). Readiness is boosted by the national commemoration of Armed Forces Day, successfully used by StratCom to centralize national cohesion (Zelensky, Budanov, DSHV all active 06:44Z-07:01Z).
- Operational Constraint (MCLC): The primary operational constraint remains the successful deployment of MCLC assets to clear the RMAO corridors for BRAVO-BLOCK entry.
- Medical Logistics Strain: Reporting from the III Separate Assault Brigade highlights acute challenges in medical evacuation (MEDEVAC), with reports of wounded remaining on tourniquets for prolonged periods (06:58:01). This suggests significant RF fire superiority or counter-mobility success along forward lines.
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- Success: Sustained success in the deep battle, confirming damage to RF military logistics/POL facilities in Ryazan and Voronezh.
- Setback: Confirmed kinetic damage to key Western logistics hubs (Lutsk commercial/food assets). Critical operational risk identified at Chornobyl NSC requiring potential strategic asset diversion.
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Immediate requirements are unchanged: MCLC assets must prioritize AoA clearance. Long-Range Fires (LRSF) must be employed immediately against the 38th GMRB assembly areas at Huliaipole to degrade flank pressure before the MLD launches.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
| Domain | Finding (FACT/Judgment) | Confidence | Operational Impact |
|---|
| UAF Internal Morale | Widespread, high-profile utilization of Armed Forces Day (06 Dec) by highest UAF command (Zelensky, HUR, DSHV, Gen Staff) (06:44Z-07:01Z). | HIGH (Fact) | MAXIMUM COHESION: Provides strong counter-narrative against RF internal discord IO (Skorod/Odesa), centralizing focus on military defense during the critical MLD pre-launch window. |
| RF Strategic IO / Recruiting | Explicit promotion of UAVs ("Gerani") as the main strike force in recruitment campaigns (07:00:04). Active contract appeals for specialized units ("Kuban" Battalion) (06:37:52). | HIGH (Fact/Judgment) | Indicates urgent need to replace attrition and scale up key technological capabilities (UAV operators) to sustain the aggressive operational tempo. |
| RF Internal Critique | Prominent milbloggers (Strelkov) criticize the slow tempo and lack of progress (06:52:29). | MEDIUM (Fact) | Suggests internal pressure on the RF General Staff to achieve immediate, visible results, validating the Stepnohorsk MLD as a high-stakes, forced objective. |
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
MLD Launch Supported by Mined AoAs and Flank Pressure NLT 1200Z.
- 060800Z - 061200Z: RF will intensify air/UAV reconnaissance over BRAVO-BLOCK staging areas to monitor MCLC movement and adjust deep fire targeting. UAV/KR activity will continue fixation efforts in the Center/North (e.g., Bila Tserkva, Zolotonosha).
- The 38th GMRB (Huliaipole) will increase preparatory artillery and air-supported shaping fires to fix UAF laterally.
- The 37th GMRB launches its MLD at Stepnohorsk NLT 061200Z, attempting to exploit the expected delay in BRAVO-BLOCK reserve due to RMAO clearance requirements.
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
Operational Encirclement via Huliaipole and Logistical Paralysis.
- UAF fails to prioritize MCLC deployment or suffers unacceptable losses attempting to breach the "Mangas" fields, paralyzing the BRAVO-BLOCK counter-attack capability.
- Simultaneous successful RF strikes against the Dobrotvir TPP (or a key regional substation) and the Zolotonosha rail junction achieve logistical and power paralysis across the Western and Southern Axes.
- The 38th GMRB executes a successful, rapid, and unobserved bypass maneuver around Huliaipole while the 37th GMRB breaches the main line, resulting in the encirclement of UAF forces in the Stepnohorsk sector.
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL DECISION POINTS)
| Event | Estimated Time Frame | Decision Point | Status Update |
|---|
| P1: BRAVO-BLOCK MCLC Engagement | 060800Z (IMMEDIATE) | J3 MCLC CONFIRMATION: Confirm MCLC leads engaged and moving on all AoAs toward Phase Line BRAVO. | CRITICAL EXECUTION WINDOW |
| P3: Counter-38 GMRB Fires | 060900Z (NLT) | J3/G2 TARGETING: Authorize deep fire missions (HIMARS, etc.) against 38th GMRB assembly/supply areas at Huliaipole. | IMMINENT OPPORTUNITY |
| P4: POL Exploitation Strike Window | 061000Z (NLT) | J3/G2: Execute final deep strike against identified RF POL distribution targets feeding 37th GMRB. | HIGH RISK/HIGH PAYOFF |
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
| Priority | Gap Description | Required Action | Confidence Impact |
|---|
| P1 (CRITICAL - Maneuver) | 38th GMRB Intent and Vector. Confirmation whether Huliaipole activity is fixing or enabling a bypass maneuver, specifically regarding mechanized elements. | IMINT/UAS RECON: Focus high-resolution ISR on the roads/flanks NORTH of Huliaipole (bypass vector). | HIGH |
| P2 (CRITICAL - Targeting) | Dobrotvir TPP BDA. Confirmation of functional damage (or lack thereof) to the Dobrotvir TPP. | IMMEDIATE IMINT/HUMINT: Focus aerial ISR and local reporting on Lviv Oblast. | HIGH |
| P3 (EW/RMAO) | "Mangas" Persistence and C2. Confirmation of current RMAO density on AoAs and the effectiveness of UAF EW jamming against "Mangas" C2. | EW/ISR RECON: Immediate post-jamming assessment of AoAs using specialized detection systems. | HIGH |
7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS
The decisive action must be taken immediately: fully commit the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve while aggressively suppressing the flank threat at Huliaipole and maximizing POL disruption before the MLD launches.
7.1. Operational Maneuver and Counter-Mobility (J3 / Engineer Command)
ACTION: P1 EXECUTE MCLC LED MOVEMENT AND FORCE PROTECTION.
- MCLC Execution: Confirm MCLC and roller assets have commenced movement and are leading the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve columns NOW. This order cannot be delayed; the operational clock has been running since the Lutsk strike confirmed the fixation phase.
- MEDEVAC Priority: Prioritize immediate allocation of armored MEDEVAC assets (e.g., M113 variants) and protected CASEVAC routes for frontline units, specifically in the Stepnohorsk-Huliaipole axis, to mitigate the severe strain noted by 3 OShBr.
7.2. Fires and Suppression (J3 / LRSF Command)
ACTION: P2 HULIAIPOLE SUPPRESSION AND P4 POL INTERDICTION.
- Huliaipole Suppression: Execute deep fires (LRSF/HIMARS) against the 38th GMRB forward assembly and fuel/ammo staging areas in the Huliaipole sector NLT 060900Z. Degrading this flank force is paramount to preventing the MDCOA.
- POL Final Strike: Conduct final, targeted deep strikes against the most lucrative, time-sensitive RF POL distribution targets feeding the 37th GMRB before 061000Z.
7.3. Strategic Infrastructure Protection (J3 / AD Command)
ACTION: P5 AD ADJUSTMENT (STRATEGIC RISK).
- Dobrotvir: Confirm the highest-efficacy long-range AD system is tasked with point defense for the Dobrotvir TPP, accepting the risk of necessary asset concentration.
- Chornobyl NSC: Allocate dedicated UAS ISR patrols over the Chornobyl NSC area and establish a zero-tolerance AD posture for any subsequent RF UAS activity in the exclusion zone, treating the structural integrity as a critical strategic target.
//END OF JISR//
