Sitrep 2025-12-06 06:34:30

JOINT INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (JISR) 25-12-06/110

TIME: 060700Z DEC 2025 SUBJECT: RF PHASE III COMMENCED: WESTERN LOGISTICS INTERDICTION CONFIRMED (LUTSK BDA); 37 GMRB MLD IMMEINENT (STEPNOHORSK); HULIAIPOLE FLANK SHAPING IN PROGRESS. PRIORITY: P1 BRAVO-BLOCK MCLC EXECUTION; P2 DOBROTVIR POINT DEFENSE; P3 COUNTER-38 GMRB SHAPING FIRES.

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The initial phase of RF deep strike operations aimed at the Western Axis (Lviv/Volyn Oblasts) is complete. The reported KR wave has ceased (060622Z), but residual UAV activity continues.

Western Axis (CRITICAL BDA): Kinetic impact confirmed in Lutsk (Volyn Oblast), striking commercial logistical assets (food warehouses). This validates the analytical judgment that RF aims to disrupt both energy (Dobrotvir TPP) and NATO logistics inflow (Lutsk/Brody). No BDA yet available for Dobrotvir TPP or Brody.
Southern Axis (MLD IMMINENT): The ground threat remains centered on the imminent Main Land Drive (MLD) launch by the 37th GMRB at Stepnohorsk (NLT 061200Z).
Southeastern Flank (Huliaipole): RF forces, specifically the 11th Guards Army VVS/PVO, are executing preparatory shaping operations. Russian bomber sorties confirmed successful destruction of concrete fortifications in Huliaipole (060630Z), suggesting the 38th GMRB flank maneuver may be maturing beyond a feint.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Clear skies persist. Weather remains highly permissive for RF long-range ISR, fixed-wing operations (Huliaipole), and deep strike accuracy.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

UAF Air Defense forces successfully engaged the KR wave, leading to the stand-down of the high-level alert. However, the successful hit on Lutsk logistics (060616Z) demonstrates that RF saturation tactics succeeded in overwhelming point defense or exploiting AD asset displacement. RF is now transitioning resources to actively support the Stepnohorsk MLD preparation, indicated by the Huliaipole shaping operations.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Enemy Intent (Confirmed): RF successfully executed the Western Axis Interdiction phase (Lutsk hit). The immediate intention is to leverage the resulting distributed UAF attention (Dobrotvir/Lutsk BDA management) and proceed directly to the MLD launch at Stepnohorsk.

Synchronization (Judgment): The confirmed air support for the Huliaipole sector indicates that RF is synchronizing the 37th GMRB MLD with pressure from the 38th GMRB, forcing UAF to commit reserves laterally or risk encirclement/bypass. (Confidence: HIGH)
Targeting Strategy: RF successfully confirmed targeting of both energy infrastructure (Dobrotvir vector) and critical commercial/military logistics (Lutsk warehouses). This requires UAF AD to protect a significantly broader category of fixed sites.

2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

RF ground sustainment for the Southern Group of Forces (SGF) remains critically constrained by the confirmed UAF deep strikes against the Ryazan NFP and Temryuk fuel storage. The window for exploiting this POL vulnerability remains NLT 061800Z. RF munitions expenditure for the Western strike was high but sustainable.

2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

RF C2 executed a complex, multi-domain transition (Deep Strike -> Ground Shaping -> MLD Launch) with observed effectiveness, successfully shifting focus from Central logistics (Fastiv) to Western logistics (Lutsk) and maintaining synchronization with active ground shaping (Huliaipole).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

UAF readiness is high, reinforced by the high-morale observation of Armed Forces Day (06 Dec). However, the Western Axis requires immediate damage assessment and AD hardening. The critical priority remains the immediate, full deployment of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve, which is now facing a compounded threat: "Mangas" RMAO on AoAs and increased shaping fire pressure from the Huliaipole flank.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Success: UAF AD successfully contained the primary KR wave, preventing wider, catastrophic damage in the Western Axis, pending Dobrotvir BDA.
Setback: Confirmed kinetic damage to logistical infrastructure in Lutsk, adding stress to Western supply routes.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The constraint is now focused on Engineer Assets (MCLC/Rollers) required to clear the "Mangas" aerial minefields on AoAs for BRAVO-BLOCK, and Long-Range Fires required to suppress the newly active RF air support and 38th GMRB assembly areas at Huliaipole.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

Domain	Finding (FACT/Judgment)	Confidence	Operational Impact
UAF Internal Morale	Widespread commemoration of Armed Forces Day (06 Dec) across multiple high-traffic channels (060620Z, 060630Z).	HIGH (Fact)	Provides a strong, centralized narrative of national resilience and service, effectively masking domestic friction/corruption IO attempts, crucial during active kinetic strikes.
RF Strategic IO	Continuation of political polarization (Poroshenko commentary) and normalization memes (Day of Laziness) (060621Z, 060622Z).	HIGH (Fact)	Sustains the effort to sow internal discord and distract the Russian domestic audience from UAF deep strikes (Ryazan NFP BDA).
Resource Acquisition	Active, high-profile fundraising appeals for Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) in Kherson (060629Z).	HIGH (Fact)	Indicates continued reliance on volunteer/donor support for tactical equipment requirements, particularly for specialized units.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

MLD Launch Supported by Mined AoAs and Flank Pressure.

060700Z - 061200Z: RF launches sustained UAV attacks (Shaheds) across the Central/Southern Axis to fix UAF AD and mask the 37th GMRB final assembly.
RF air support (bombers) maintains fire superiority over Huliaipole to suppress UAF defenses and enable the 38th GMRB to begin advanced maneuvers (bypassing fortifications or fixing UAF reserves).
The 37th GMRB launches its MLD at Stepnohorsk NLT 061200Z. The BRAVO-BLOCK reserve movement is delayed by required MCLC deployment against "Mangas" RMAO.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

Operational Encirclement via Huliaipole.

RF achieves kinetic success against the Dobrotvir TPP (or a key regional substation), causing significant regional power failure and paralyzing Western logistics management.
The 38th GMRB executes a successful bypass maneuver around Huliaipole, leveraging continuous air support, and rapidly secures a key bridge or junction behind the UAF forward defense line at Stepnohorsk.
The 37th GMRB MLD breaches the main line. UAF defenses are simultaneously fixed by the frontal assault and encircled by the 38th GMRB maneuver, leading to a catastrophic operational loss in the Southern Front.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL DECISION POINTS)

Event	Estimated Time Frame	Decision Point	Status Update
P1: BRAVO-BLOCK MCLC Engagement	060700Z (IMMEDIATE NLT)	J3 MCLC CONFIRMATION: Confirm MCLC leads engaged and moving on all AoAs toward Phase Line BRAVO.	CRITICAL EXECUTION WINDOW
P2: Dobrotvir TPP BDA	060800Z (NLT)	AD REDEPLOYMENT CONFIRMATION: Confirm high-efficacy AD battery (Patriot/SAMP-T) is moving/set up to protect Dobrotvir TPP.	URGENT
P3: Counter-38 GMRB Fires	060800Z (NLT)	J3/G2 TARGETING: Authorize deep fire missions (HIMARS, etc.) against known RF assembly/supply areas feeding the 38th GMRB at Huliaipole to disrupt air support logistics and ground preparations.	IMMINENT OPPORTUNITY

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

Priority	Gap Description	Required Action	Confidence Impact
P1 (CRITICAL - Targeting)	Dobrotvir TPP BDA. Confirmation of kinetic impact and degree of functional damage to the Dobrotvir TPP or associated substation infrastructure following the KR wave stand-down.	IMMEDIATE IMINT/HUMINT: Focus aerial ISR and local reporting on Lviv Oblast.	HIGH
P2 (CRITICAL - Maneuver)	38th GMRB Intent and Vector. Determine if the confirmed air-supported attack on Huliaipole is fixing the defense or actively supporting a bypass maneuver (MDCOA).	IMINT/UAS RECON: Increase high-resolution ISR focus on the roads/flanks north and south of Huliaipole.	HIGH
P3 (EW/RMAO)	"Mangas" Persistence. Confirm if the EW jamming deployed on BRAVO-BLOCK AoAs successfully stopped new aerial mine-laying.	EW/ISR RECON: Immediate post-jamming assessment of AoAs using specialized detection systems.	HIGH

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The key to preventing operational collapse is accepting the risk of dispersed defense (Western Axis) to ensure the decisive commitment of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve before the 37th GMRB MLD launches.

7.1. Operational Maneuver (J3 / G2)

ACTION: P1 BRAVO-BLOCK EXECUTION & COUNTER-FLANKING.

Immediate MCLC Lead: Confirm MCLC and roller assets are leading the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve columns NOW. Movement must not be delayed by perceived rear-area security issues; the MLD tactical clock takes precedence.
Huliaipole Suppression: Authorize and execute deep fires against 38th GMRB assembly areas and confirmed ammunition/fuel depots supporting their advance/air operations in the Huliaipole sector NLT 060800Z. This aims to attrit the flank threat and degrade their momentum before the MLD launches.

7.2. Air Defense Operations (J3 / AD Command)

ACTION: P2 WESTERN AD & LOGISTICS PROTECTION.

Dobrotvir Hardening: Re-task the highest-efficacy long-range AD system available (as per JISR 109 recommendation) to provide point defense for the Dobrotvir TPP. Accept temporary risk elsewhere; loss of this TPP represents critical strategic defeat.
Logistics AD: Maintain dedicated mobile SHORAD protection (Gepard/VADS) for the Zolotonosha rail/road junction, as the Western strike was a fixation effort intended to draw attention away from this key Southern Front artery.

7.3. Deep Strike/Logistics Interdiction (J3 / G2)

ACTION: P4 RF POL EXPLOITATION.

Utilize residual long-range assets to conduct follow-up strikes against RF POL distribution lines and temporary staging areas feeding the 37th GMRB within the next 6 hours, prioritizing targets identified through analysis of the Ryazan/Temryuk BDA. Maximize RF fuel constraints to slow the MLD post-breach.

//END OF JISR//

Situation Report