JOINT INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (JISR) 25-12-06/109
TIME: 060600Z DEC 2025
SUBJECT: RF PHASE III DEEP STRIKE: CRITICAL SHIFT TO WESTERN ENERGY INTERDICTION (DOBROTVIR TPP THREAT). MLD LAUNCH IMMINENT AT STEPNOHORSK. UAF COUNTER-STRIKE ON RYAZAN NFP CONFIRMED.
PRIORITY: P1 WESTERN AD HARDENING (DOBROTVIR/BRODY); P2 BRAVO-BLOCK MCLC COMMITMENT (STEPNOHORSK); P3 CONTINUED ANTI-MANGAS EW.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
RF is dynamically shifting the vector of its deep strike operation, moving from the Central Logistics Corridor (Fastiv/Bila Tserkva, per JISR 108) to high-value energy and logistical targets in the Western Axis.
- Western Axis (NEW CRITICAL THREAT): Cruise Missiles (KR) are tracking toward Lviv Oblast, specifically targeting Brody (Air Force alert) and Dobrotvir TPP (via threat proximity/OSINT). KR/UAV groups were also confirmed near Lutsk (Volyn Oblast). Power interruptions are reported in Lviv Oblast. This indicates a strategic shift to degrade the national energy grid supporting critical infrastructure and logistics inflow.
- Central Axis (EASED THREAT): Missile activity in Kyiv Oblast has temporarily ceased (060536Z). This suggests the immediate follow-up strike intended to paralyze Fastiv logistics (per JISR 108) either failed or achieved satisfactory results and RF forces transitioned to the next phase target set.
- Southern Axis (MLD IMMEINENT): High-volume UAV strikes overnight were aimed at fixing AD and degrading rear areas. UAF reports success, downing 40+ UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk. An infrastructure attack was confirmed in the Kryvyi Rih district (Zelenodolsk community). The 37th GMRB Main Land Drive (MLD) at Stepnohorsk remains the focus of the ground conflict.
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Clear skies persist across the majority of the operational area, continuing to favor RF long-range ISR and strike accuracy, particularly in the deep rear.
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
RF is utilizing a high-cost kinetic strike (KR) package in the West coordinated with low-cost (Shahed/UAV) fixation strikes (Poltava/Kremenchu). UAF AD is highly effective in the Southern/Central regions but is severely tasked by the rapid, long-distance shift to the Western Axis. UAF has successfully executed deep drone strikes, achieving BDA on the Ryazan Oil Refinery (NFP).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Enemy Intent (Refined): To degrade national grid resilience via Western energy targets (e.g., Dobrotvir TPP) concurrent with the launch of the 37th GMRB MLD at Stepnohorsk. This aims to maximize tactical distraction and delay operational-level decision-making regarding the BRAVO-BLOCK commitment.
- Targeting Strategy (Judgment): The persistent focus on TPPs (Dobrotvir) and confirmed attacks on infrastructure (Kryvyi Rih) demonstrates a sustained and systematic effort to de-energize key sectors. Targeting Brody/Lutsk serves the dual purpose of hitting logistical staging (NATO inflow) and fixing high-value UAF AD assets away from the MLD critical area. (Confidence: HIGH)
- Tactical Resilience: RF C2 demonstrated the capacity to rapidly shift KR vectors following the initial Fastiv strike (per JISR 108) and has now executed a successful strategic transition to the Western Axis. RF assets are operating freely across multiple domains.
2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
RF ground sustainment for the Southern Group of Forces (SGF) is under pressure. The confirmed successful UAF deep strike against the Ryazan NFP, combined with the earlier Temryuk fuel storage strike (48-72 hr effect), places RF POL supply lines in a critical vulnerability window NLT 061800Z. RF deep strike munitions stock remains high.
2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
RF operational C2 remains highly adaptive and effective in synchronized, multi-vector targeting.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
UAF AD continues to perform successfully in neutralizing large UAV groups (Dnipropetrovsk). Forces are currently positioned to capitalize on the confirmed RF fuel constraints (Temryuk/Ryazan BDA). However, the sudden shift to the Western Axis necessitates rapid tactical reallocation of AD resources, diverting attention from the MLD preparation area.
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- Success (Deep Battle): Confirmed BDA and resulting fire at the Ryazan NFP (060540Z). This validates the UAF's capability to impose strategic costs on RF POL production and distribution deep within RF territory.
- Success (Air Defense): Confirmation of 40+ UAV interceptions over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, limiting damage to industrial assets proximate to the Southern Front.
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
The primary constraint is the inability to simultaneously provide effective point defense for Western Energy targets (Dobrotvir), Northern/Central logistics (Kyiv corridor), and the Stepnohorsk MLD area. Mobile, high-efficacy AD systems are over-tasked.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
| Domain | Finding (FACT/Judgment) | Confidence | Operational Impact |
|---|
| UAF Internal Morale | High volume of official and channel-based messaging commemorating Ukrainian Armed Forces Day (Dec 6th) (060538Z, 060603Z). | HIGH (Fact) | Successfully reinforces national identity and resilience amidst active strikes, countering previous RF IO focused on corruption/domestic friction. |
| RF Strategic IO | Amplification of civilian sheltering and fires in Kyiv suburb (060543Z, 060554Z). | HIGH (Fact) | Designed to portray RF dominance and undermine civilian resilience in the capital region, despite the current missile 'minus' (060536Z). |
| RF Domestic | TASS reporting on commercial trademarks (Swarovski) and social media commentary on alcohol prices (060542Z, 060546Z). | HIGH (Fact) | RF continues to rely on normalization efforts to maintain internal stability and distract from UAF deep strikes (Ryazan NFP). |
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
MLD Launch Supported by Western Energy Degrade.
- 060600Z - 061200Z: RF achieves confirmed kinetic success against a critical Western energy node (e.g., Dobrotvir TPP, or major substation near Lviv). Power outages are expanded, complicating Western logistics inflow.
- UAF operational reserve (BRAVO-BLOCK) movement to Phase Line BRAVO is delayed due to persistent EW/RMAO ("Mangas" aerial mining) threats on AoAs and the need to dedicate engineering assets to de-mining.
- The 37th GMRB launches its MLD at Stepnohorsk NLT 061200Z, exploiting the logistic and command paralysis caused by dispersed AD focus.
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
Decapitation and NATO Logistical Severance.
- RF achieves a kinetic success against a high-value NATO logistics transload or Forward Operating Site (FOS) near Brody or Lutsk, severely constraining the inbound supply chain for critical munitions (Class V/VIII).
- Simultaneously, the 37th GMRB MLD achieves deep penetration, leveraging the aerial minefields to prevent the decisive commitment of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve.
- The combined effect isolates the Southern Front from strategic resupply while local reserves are stalled or destroyed.
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL DECISION POINTS)
| Event | Estimated Time Frame | Decision Point | Status Update |
|---|
| P1: AD Reallocation (Western Axis) | 060600Z (IMMEDIATE NLT) | AD RE-TASKING ORDER: Divert high-efficacy, long-range AD toward the Dobrotvir/Brody corridor. | CRITICAL DECISION WINDOW |
| P2: BRAVO-BLOCK MCLC Engagement | 060700Z (NLT) | J3 MCLC CONFIRMATION: Confirm MCLC leads engaged and moving on all AoAs toward Phase Line BRAVO. | URGENT |
| P3: Exploit RF POL Vulnerability | 060800Z (NLT) | J3/J2 COORDINATION: Integrate the Ryazan/Temryuk BDA into RF COA planning for SGF; authorize deeper fire missions against POL lines NLT 060800Z. | IMMINENT OPPORTUNITY |
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
| Priority | Gap Description | Required Action | Confidence Impact |
|---|
| P1 (CRITICAL - Targeting) | Dobrotvir TPP BDA. Confirmation of kinetic impact and degree of functional damage to the Dobrotvir TPP or associated substation infrastructure. | IMMEDIATE IMINT/OSINT: Focus aerial ISR and public monitoring on the target area in Lviv Oblast. | HIGH |
| P2 (CRITICAL - Maneuver) | "Mangas" Persistence. Determine the current effectiveness of "Mangas" RMAO following recommended EW measures (DIS 12-05). Are new fields being laid? | EW/ISR RECON: Increase low-altitude UAS ISR along BRAVO-BLOCK AoAs. | HIGH |
| P3 (WESTERN FLANK) | Brody/Lutsk Specific Targets. Identify the precise military installations targeted in the Brody/Lutsk area (e.g., airbase infrastructure, rail yard, POL storage). | IMMEDIATE IMINT/HUMINT: Focus local reporting and high-resolution commercial satellite imagery (COMSAT). | MEDIUM |
7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS
The RF deep strike plan is systematic: Cripple logistics (Fastiv), then cripple power (Dobrotvir), then launch the MLD (Stepnohorsk). UAF must execute the counter-maneuver (BRAVO-BLOCK) now while exploiting the confirmed RF fuel constraint.
7.1. Air Defense Operations (J3 / AD Command)
ACTION: P1 WESTERN AXIS POINT DEFENSE.
- Immediate Re-Prioritization: Divert one long-range AD system (e.g., Patriot or SAMP/T battery) previously tasked for lower priority Central/Northern Axis defense toward the Western Corridor to secure the Dobrotvir TPP and critical regional air assets (Lutsk, Brody).
- SHORAD in South: Maintain high-density SHORAD coverage (Gepard/VADS) in Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia, leveraging the successful engagement ratio (40+ UAVs) to shield industrial capacity crucial to the Southern Front.
7.2. Operational Maneuver (J3 / G2)
ACTION: P2 BRAVO-BLOCK EXECUTION.
- MCLC Mandatory Lead: Reiterate that the BRAVO-BLOCK must initiate movement NOW towards Phase Line BRAVO, regardless of Western power interruptions. Every mechanized column must be preceded by MCLC assets (Mine Clearing Line Charges) and rollers to breach anticipated "Mangas" aerial minefields. Logistical uncertainty must be accepted to meet the tactical timeline of the MLD.
- Exploit RF Fuel Vulnerability: Task long-range fires and deep strike assets to continuously track and engage confirmed RF POL distribution points and temporary storage facilities feeding the 37th GMRB in the next 24 hours, capitalizing on the Ryazan/Temryuk BDA.
7.3. Electronic Warfare and C4ISR (J6)
ACTION: P3 ANTI-MANGAS AND EMCON.
- EW Persistence: Maintain continuous, high-power broad-spectrum jamming focused on the known "Mangas" control frequencies and the assumed RF Forward Operating Locations (FOLs) to prevent the laying of new minefields on UAF AoAs.
- C2 Hardening: Given the dynamic nature of RF deep strikes, all echelon C2 nodes must operate under strict EMCON and utilize mobile/hardened facilities, anticipating further kinetic targeting despite the current 'minus' in the Kyiv region.
//END OF JISR//
