JOINT INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (JISR) 25-12-06/108
TIME: 060545Z DEC 2025
SUBJECT: RF PHASE II INTENSIFICATION: RE-KINETIC STRIKE ON FASTIV/BILA TSERKVA LOGISTICS CORRIDOR. CRITICAL LOGISTICAL PARALYSIS IMMINENT. C2 DISPERSAL REQUIRED.
PRIORITY: P1 CENTRAL AXIS AD REINFORCEMENT (BILA TSERKVA/MAKARIV); P2 C2 NODE RELOCATION (SOUTH KYIV); P3 MLD COUNTER-MEASURES VALIDATION (STEPNOHORSK).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
RF is executing a synchronized, high-volume deep strike operation, characterized by a rapid tactical shift following the initial success at Fastiv.
- Central Axis (Critical Threat): The confirmed BDA on the Fastiv rail node is being exploited. Cruise Missile (KR) groups, initially tracking westward through Vinnytsia/Khmelnytskyi, have rapidly reversed course and are now converging on the Bila Tserkva / Makariv / Fastiv logistics triangle. This indicates an intent to strike temporary repair crews, secondary staging areas, or local energy infrastructure supporting triage efforts. (05:21Z – 05:30Z)
- Targets include energy infrastructure in Kyiv Oblast. (Confirmed, 05:27Z)
- Western Axis (Sustained Fixation): UAVs and KRs maintain vectors toward high-value airbases (Starokostiantyniv, Khmelnytskyi) and logistical hubs (Ternopil, Lviv, Lutsk), successfully fragmenting UAF Air Defense (AD) attention and resources. (05:16Z – 05:28Z)
- Southern Axis (BDA Confirmed): RF sources confirm a successful Caliber strike in Dnipropetrovsk, validating the threat to industrial and logistical assets in the area. High-intensity artillery continues near Zaporizhzhia, sustaining pressure proximate to the 37th GMRB Main Land Drive (MLD).
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Clear skies across the operational area continue to favor RF long-range ISR and strike accuracy.
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
RF forces are committing high-cost cruise missiles (Caliber/KR) and low-cost UAVs (Shahed/Mopec) in a coordinated strike designed to maximize cumulative logistical damage. UAF AD assets are highly tasked, particularly in the Kyiv region, where the rapid course reversal of missile groups necessitates immediate tactical response. Ukrainian Railway (Ukrzaliznytsia) has confirmed BDA at Fastiv and is implementing route diversions.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Enemy Intent (Refined): To prevent UAF logistical recovery (triage, repair, or rerouting) following the Fastiv strike, thereby guaranteeing the isolation of the Southern Front prior to the 37th GMRB MLD commitment at Stepnohorsk.
- Targeting Strategy (Judgment): The immediate re-targeting of the Bila Tserkva/Fastiv area (previously prioritized as Kaniv/Pyriatyn) suggests that RF ISR has identified local, high-value C2/staging nodes or exposed repair crews attempting logistical triage. This follow-up strike is designed to turn critical damage into catastrophic paralysis. (Confidence: HIGH)
- Logistical Synergy: The confirmed strike in Dnipropetrovsk and the renewed focus on the Fastiv corridor demonstrate a highly refined targeting cycle aimed at paralyzing both forward staging and rear echelon supply flows simultaneously.
2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
RF capacity for kinetic strikes remains high. The confirmed BDA on the Temryuk fuel storage (48-72 hr effect) is not yet impacting RF deep strike launch capacity but is expected to constrain 37th GMRB operational reach NLT 061800Z.
2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
RF C2 is demonstrating high effectiveness and rapid adaptation, evidenced by the mid-flight course corrections and rapid re-targeting of KR groups towards the Central Axis.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
UAF AD units must immediately prioritize the re-converging Central Axis threats. The official acknowledgement of the RF threat coinciding with the Day of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (Dec 6th) demonstrates resilience but risks public morale fatigue given the sheer scope of the air alerts.
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- Setback (Deep Battle): Confirmed BDA on Fastiv rail infrastructure is a significant tactical setback, compounded by the inability to contain the current follow-up strike wave targeting the recovery zone.
- Success (Deep Battle): UAF AD remains effective in tracking and alerting across the operational area. No new major RF ground breakthroughs reported (PENDING 37th GMRB MLD).
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
The critical constraint is the time window for C2 node dispersal and the tactical realignment of mobile AD assets to the Fastiv/Bila Tserkva area without totally abandoning the Kaniv/Pyriatyn crossing points.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
| Domain | Finding (FACT/Judgment) | Confidence | Operational Impact |
|---|
| UAF Internal Morale | Official acknowledgments of the Day of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (Dec 6th) by Syrskyi and DShV. (05:04Z, 05:14Z) | HIGH (Fact) | Positive internal messaging designed to reinforce identity and resilience amidst active strikes. |
| RF Strategic IO | Amplification of Hungary blocking EU funding "Plan B." (05:30Z) | HIGH (Fact) | Coordinated effort to undermine UAF confidence in long-term external sustainment, timed to maximize cognitive impact during the MLD. |
| Domestic Damage Assessment | Zaporizhzhia regional administration confirming 4 civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. (05:10Z) | HIGH (Fact) | Reinforces the narrative of widespread, non-military targeting, increasing public distress near the MLD epicenter. |
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
Sustained Logistical Interdiction and MLD Launch.
- 060545Z - 060800Z: RF achieves confirmed BDA against power infrastructure and/or logistical staging depots in the Bila Tserkva/Makariv area, further compounding the Fastiv damage and forcing critical C2 nodes to relocate under pressure.
- The resulting cumulative logistical choke points delay the commitment of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserves beyond 061200Z.
- The 37th GMRB utilizes the logistical delay and lack of coordinated UAF fire to achieve a tactical breakthrough at Stepnohorsk NLT 061200Z.
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
Decapitation and Operational Isolation.
- RF achieves kinetic success against a high-value C2 node in the Myronivka/Bohuslav area (South Kyiv), effectively disrupting tactical coordination for logistical triage and defensive fire allocation in the Central Axis.
- Simultaneously, the sustained pressure on the Western Axis results in BDA at the Starokostiantyniv airbase or the main rail hub in Ternopil.
- The South Front is completely isolated (logistically and politically), allowing the 37th GMRB to achieve rapid operational success against defenders at Stepnohorsk.
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL DECISION POINTS)
| Event | Estimated Time Frame | Decision Point | Status Update |
|---|
| P1: AD Reallocation (Bila Tserkva/Makariv) | 060545Z (IMMEDIATE NLT) | AD RE-TASKING ORDER: Divert highest available mobile AD assets toward the immediate threat zone (Bila Tserkva/Makariv). | CRITICAL DECISION WINDOW |
| P2: C2 Dispersal (South Kyiv) | 060600Z (NLT) | J6/C2 MOVE ORDER: Activate pre-planned relocation/mobility protocols for all critical C2 nodes in the Myronivka/Bohuslav region. | URGENT |
| P3: BRAVO-BLOCK MCLC Engagement | 060700Z (NLT) | J3 MCLC CONFIRMATION: Confirm that all BRAVO-BLOCK mechanized columns have MCLC leads engaged and moving, regardless of logistical uncertainty. | IMMINENT |
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
| Priority | Gap Description | Required Action | Confidence Impact |
|---|
| P1 (CRITICAL - Targeting) | Specific Targets Bila Tserkva/Makariv. Confirm precise nature of RF targeting (Energy generation, rail repair staging, POL, or C2) in the immediate return strike zone. | IMMEDIATE IMINT/HUMINT: Focus aerial ISR on the Bila Tserkva/Makariv corridor; attempt to locate any forward-deployed repair/triage teams. | HIGH |
| P2 (CRITICAL - Intent) | Kaniv/Pyriatyn Status. Confirm if the initial threat vectors toward Kaniv/Pyriatyn were diversionary or if new groups are following up the main strike wave. | CONTINUED SIGINT/AD TRACKING: Maintain sensor coverage on the Dnieper crossings. | HIGH |
| P3 (WESTERN FLANK) | Starokostiantyniv BDA Assessment. Confirm potential kinetic success against the airbase to assess immediate deep strike capabilities degradation. | IMMEDIATE IMINT/OSINT: Focus on post-strike analysis in Khmelnytskyi Oblast. | MEDIUM |
7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS
The RF is exploiting the damage at Fastiv. The focus must shift from defending against theoretical strikes on secondary routes to defending against kinetic reality in the Central Axis and ensuring the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve moves immediately.
7.1. Air Defense Operations (J3 / AD Command)
ACTION: P1 CENTRAL AXIS POINT DEFENSE.
- Prioritization Shift: Immediately re-prioritize mobile AD assets (Patriot, NASAMS, high-efficacy SHORAD) currently tasked with defending the Kaniv crossing and Pyriatyn rail junction to establish high-density point defense around the Bila Tserkva / Makariv / South Kyiv area to counter the re-converging KR groups and persistent UAV threat.
- Energy Hardening: Reinforce AD coverage specifically around large power transmission nodes (e.g., thermal power plants or major substations) in the Kyiv Oblast, as energy infrastructure is confirmed as an active target.
7.2. Logistics and Engineer Operations (J4 / J3 Engineer)
ACTION: P2 SURVIVAL AND DISPERSAL.
- Immediate Dispersal: All forward-deployed logistical staging areas (Class III/V/VII) within 30km of Fastiv and Bila Tserkva must immediately implement pre-planned dispersal protocols (PHASE DELTA).
- Repair Crew Recall: Given the confirmed re-targeting of the Fastiv area, immediately recall or relocate main rail/road repair teams to secure areas until the current missile threat passes, mitigating losses of critical engineering assets.
- Road Priority: Assume rail infrastructure in the Central Axis (Kyiv-Cherkasy) is critically degraded NLT 061200Z. Shift all non-critical flow to robust, pre-cleared road corridors and begin staging fuel/maintenance at alternate road transload points outside the 50km radius of Fastiv.
7.3. Operational Maneuver (J3 / G2)
- C2 Hardening: All operational and tactical C2 nodes in the South Kyiv region (Myronivka/Bohuslav) must implement full EMCON (Emission Control) and move to highly mobile or hardened/underground locations. DO NOT REMAIN STATIC.
- BRAVO-BLOCK Commitment: Reiterate the order: The BRAVO-BLOCK must initiate movement NOW towards Phase Line BRAVO, using MCLC leads as previously recommended. Further logistical delays are guaranteed; waiting for perfect logistics will render the counter-attack irrelevant. Commit with existing stores.
//END OF JISR//
