JOINT INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (JISR) 25-12-06/107
TIME: 060515Z DEC 2025
SUBJECT: RF DEEP STRIKE INTENSIFICATION: KANIV/MYRONIVKA THREAT CONFIRMED. RF EXECUTES PHASE II LOGISTICAL PARALYSIS PLAN. CRITICAL AD REDEPLOYMENT REQUIRED.
PRIORITY: P1 DNEPR RIVER CROSSING DEFENSE (KANIV); P2 LOGISTICAL BYPASS VALIDATION (FASTIV/PYRIATYN); P3 BDA ASSESSMENT (MYRONIVKA/BOHUSLAV).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
The RF synchronized Multi-Domain Attack (MDA) has entered Phase II, characterized by high-volume Cruise Missile (CM) saturation aimed at compounding the effects of the confirmed BDA on the Fastiv rail node. The operation now spans four distinct axes simultaneously.
- Central Axis (Critical Threat): New, high-density CM groups tracked through Sumy and Chernihiv oblasts towards two critical areas:
- Kaniv (Cherkasy Oblast): Direct vector threat to the Dnieper River crossing (04:52Z), a vital artery for strategic reserves and sustainment.
- Pyriatyn (Poltava Oblast): Confirmed track vector (04:49Z) threatening the Pyriatyn rail junction, a critical hub on the alternate route bypassing Kyiv.
- Myronivka/Bohuslav (Kyiv South): CM groups located in the southern Kyiv region (05:00Z). This area contains key logistical staging areas and C2 nodes supporting the Central/Southern front.
- Southern Axis (New Caliber Groups): New Caliber CM groups tracked through Zaporizhzhia and Mykolaiv oblasts, aiming toward Dnipro and Bashtanka (04:57Z - 05:01Z), threatening industrial and logistical capacity proximate to the Stepnohorsk MLD.
- Western Axis (Fixation): UAVs reported near Bila Tserkva, Rivne, and Ternopil (04:45Z), sustaining the operational distraction designed to fragment UAF AD resources along the Western supply corridor.
- Stepnohorsk MLD: The 37th GMRB Main Land Drive remains the ultimate objective of this deep interdiction effort.
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Clear skies persist across the operational area, facilitating continued RF high-altitude strike and long-range ISR capabilities.
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
RF forces are executing simultaneous high-fidelity deep strikes across multiple axes. UAF Air Defense assets are heavily tasked, defending critical energy (Dobrotvir), logistical hubs (Fastiv BDA response, Pyriatyn, Kaniv), and C2 nodes (Zviahel, Myronivka). Widespread air raid alerts are active.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Enemy Intent (Validated and Intensified): To achieve Multi-point Logistical Paralysis across Central and Southern Ukraine using high-density CM strikes, thereby ensuring the Stepnohorsk MLD succeeds by denying the committed UAF reserves (BRAVO-BLOCK) critical sustainment and maneuver capacity.
- Phase II Targeting Strategy (Judgment): RF has shifted targeting focus from general energy/rail threats (Phase I: Fastiv) to targeting the redundancy routes and Dnieper river crossings (Phase II: Kaniv, Pyriatyn). Disruption at Kaniv would require a much longer, less resilient logistical bypass than the Fastiv damage.
- C2/Logistical Synergy: The vector toward Myronivka/Bohuslav (South Kyiv Region) is assessed as a high-value strike targeting C2 or key logistical staging depots, aiming to paralyze the command response to the ongoing rail disruption. (Confidence: MEDIUM/JUDGMENT)
2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
RF sustainment remains marginally degraded by the Temryuk BDA (48-72 hr effect), but their immediate operational success in degrading UAF logistics (Fastiv) places the burden of crisis response squarely on UAF forces.
2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
RF C2 remains effective, demonstrated by the seamless transition and launch of a second wave of strikes across newly established vectors immediately following the Fastiv success.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
UAF AD readiness is tactically sound but strategically strained. The deployment of mobile assets (e.g., SHORAD/VADS) must now be prioritized away from the Western fixation targets (Rivne/Ternopil UAV tracks) towards the immediate, high-impact Central Axis (Kaniv, Pyriatyn).
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- Setback (Deep Battle): Confirmed second wave of RF CM saturation strike now impacting critical nodes previously assumed to be bypass routes.
- Success (Deep Battle): Operational resolve remains high; UAF AD systems are actively tracking and engaging the new threats across all vectors. BDA of the UAF 116 UAV strike remains the critical counter-offensive success metric.
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
The critical constraint is the time required to reposition mobile AD assets to cover the new priority targets (Kaniv/Pyriatyn) before the incoming CM groups arrive (Estimated TTA 15-30 minutes).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
The Information Environment is dominated by real-time public alerts regarding the missile threat, which maximizes internal anxiety. RF IO continues to project VDV operational confidence and deflect internal scrutiny.
| Domain | Finding (FACT/Judgment) | Confidence | Operational Impact |
|---|
| RF Strategic IO | Routine VDV operational updates and historical/religious commemoration. (04:34Z, 04:43Z) | HIGH (Fact) | Maintains morale focus within RF military channels, attempting to mask the intensive, stressful deep strike operation. |
| UAF Public Alert | Widespread public notifications and tracking of CM/UAV vectors. (04:41Z - 05:00Z) | HIGH (Fact) | While necessary for public safety, the sheer breadth of the alerts (Mykolaiv to Ternopil) amplifies the perception of systemic national threat and resource scarcity. |
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
Redundancy Route Degradation and MLD Support.
- 060515Z - 060630Z: RF achieves kinetic success (BDA) against at least one of the primary targets on the Central Axis: Kaniv Dnieper Crossing or the Pyriatyn Rail Junction.
- The resulting cumulative logistical choke points force UAF to rely solely on congested road traffic for critical supply, heavily delaying the commitment of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserves.
- The 37th GMRB utilizes the logistical delay to achieve a firm breakthrough at Stepnohorsk NLT 061200Z.
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
Logistical and C2 Decapitation.
- RF achieves confirmed BDA at Fastiv, Kaniv, and Pyriatyn within a 3-hour window, resulting in catastrophic failure of the central/southern logistical network (near 0% rail throughput).
- A high-value strike at the Myronivka/Bohuslav target area successfully disrupts a critical UAF operational C2 hub or large ammunition staging depot, preventing coordinated logistical triage and defensive fire allocation.
- The 37th GMRB, uninhibited by coordinated counter-attacks or suppressive fire, achieves a rapid operational encirclement of forward Stepnohorsk defenders.
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL DECISION POINTS)
| Event | Estimated Time Frame | Decision Point | Status Update |
|---|
| P1: AD Reallocation (Kaniv/Pyriatyn) | 060515Z (IMMEDIATE NLT) | AD RE-TASKING ORDER: Divert mobile AD assets (e.g., Gepard/Patriot/NASAMS) currently covering Western/Northern fixation targets to protect Kaniv and Pyriatyn. | CRITICAL DECISION WINDOW |
| P2: Logistical Contingency Activation (Kaniv Loss) | 060600Z (NLT) | J4 CONTINGENCY IMPLEMENTATION: Assume loss of Kaniv crossing and implement pre-planned road/ferry bypass strategies immediately. | URGENT |
| P3: Myronivka BDA Assessment | 060700Z (NLT) | ISR FOCUS: Confirm BDA at Myronivka/Bohuslav to determine if C2 or critical Class V/VII storage was targeted. | IMMINENT |
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
| Priority | Gap Description | Required Action | Confidence Impact |
|---|
| P1 (CRITICAL - Targeting) | BDA Assessment of Myronivka/Bohuslav Strike. Confirm nature of the target hit (C2, POL, Rail staging, or specific ammunition depot). | IMMEDIATE IMINT/HUMINT: Focus allied and organic SATINT/HUMINT on the target zones in the South Kyiv Oblast. | HIGH |
| P1 (CRITICAL - BDA) | BDA Assessment of UAF 116 UAV Strike. Quantify strategic damage to RF rear areas. | CONTINUED IMINT/GEOINT: Sustain focus on RF airfields, POL depots, and strategic C2 nodes. | HIGH |
| P2 (FLANK SECURITY) | 38th GMRB Vector Confirmation. Continued ambiguity on the Huliaipole flank threat. | CONTINUED SIGINT/ISR: Focus EW/SIGINT collection on the 38th GMRB assembly area (Huliaipole flank). | MEDIUM |
7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS
The immediate priority has escalated from logistical triage to kinetic defense of the remaining critical logistics infrastructure along the Dnieper River.
7.1. Air Defense Operations (J3 / AD Command)
ACTION: P1 KANIV/PYRIATYN POINT DEFENSE.
- Immediate Reallocation: Issue directive to immediately relocate high-efficacy mobile AD assets (e.g., Patriot or NASAMS if within range, or the highest available mobile SHORAD battery) from the Western axis (Rivne/Ternopil area) to provide point defense for the Kaniv Dnieper Crossing and the Pyriatyn Rail Junction.
- Dnipro Protection: Reinforce AD coverage around key logistical infrastructure in the Dnipro area, specifically protecting major bridges and POL storage from the incoming Caliber threats.
7.2. Logistics and Engineer Operations (J4 / J3 Engineer)
ACTION: P2 CONTINGENCY AND REDUNDANCY VALIDATION.
- Kaniv Bypass Activation: Immediately activate and test contingency plans for logistical flow utilizing road and temporary ferry assets in the event of a kinetic strike on the Kaniv Dnieper crossing.
- Pyriatyn Assessment: Dispatch forward engineering teams to Pyriatyn to assess vulnerability and pre-stage rail maintenance materials, anticipating an RF follow-on strike.
- BRAVO-BLOCK Logistical Prioritization: Ensure that all limited incoming throughput is immediately staged and prioritized for the committed BRAVO-BLOCK operational reserve, as prolonged supply delays are now near-certain.
7.3. Operational Maneuver (J3 / G2)
- Maintain MCLC Lead: Reiterate the requirement for Mine Clearing Line Charges (MCLC) to lead all mechanized columns of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve due to the "Mangas" aerial mining threat reported in the previous period. Do not delay movement based on logistical uncertainty; move forward with existing stores, protecting AoAs from mining.
- C2 Dispersal: Critical C2 nodes in the South Kyiv region (near Myronivka/Bohuslav) must implement pre-planned dispersal and mobility measures immediately, anticipating RF attempts to exploit the confirmed threat vector.
//END OF JISR//
