JOINT INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (JISR) 25-12-06/106
TIME: 060445Z DEC 2025
SUBJECT: LOGISTICAL PARALYSIS INITIATED (FASTIV HIT CONFIRMED). RF DEEP STRIKE EXPANDS TO VOLYN AXIS. UAF CONDUCTS LARGE-SCALE COUNTER-STRIKE. CRITICAL AD TRIAGE REQUIRED.
PRIORITY: P1 LOGISTICAL TRIAGE AND RAILWAY REDUNDANCY; P2 VOLYN AD INTERDICTION; P3 STEPNOHORSK MLD STATUS.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
The operational environment remains defined by the RF synchronized Multi-Domain Attack (MDA) against UAF operational centers of gravity (C2, Energy, Logistics) designed to isolate the Stepnohorsk Main Land Drive (MLD).
- Critical Logistical BDA: Confirmed successful missile/UAV strike on railway infrastructure at Fastiv (Kyiv Oblast) at approximately 04:06Z. Fastiv is a major rail junction supporting central and southern fronts, validating the RF intent to achieve systemic logistical paralysis.
- New Deep Strike Vector: Confirmed RF UAV groups originating from Rivne Oblast tracking toward Volyn Oblast (04:19Z). This expands the strategic threat zone northwest, forcing further fragmentation of the UAF Air Defense (AD) shield along the Northern/Western axes.
- RF Strike Capabilities: Confirmed presence of 2x TU-160 and 5x TU-95ms (04:29Z) airborne during the launch window, confirming high-volume cruise missile (CM) saturation capability remains active.
- Tactical Main Effort (Stepnohorsk): MLD is assumed fully engaged, requiring RF to focus isolation efforts (deep strikes) to prevent the commitment of UAF reserves (BRAVO-BLOCK).
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Clear skies persist across the AO, facilitating continued RF ISR and high-altitude strike platforms.
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: HIGH/JUDGMENT)
- RF Deep Strike: RF forces are executing the critical phase of their deep interdiction plan by successfully targeting key rail choke points (Fastiv). The additional vector toward Volyn aims to preemptively interdict potential strategic supply flow from the Western border.
- UAF AD: AD assets are severely overextended, simultaneously tasked to defend against the Fastiv BDA, the imminent threats to Dobrotvir/Zviahel (JISR 105), and now the new Volyn vector.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Enemy Intent (Validated): Achieve Logistical Paralysis to ensure the 37th GMRB MLD at Stepnohorsk succeeds by denying UAF forces critical ammunition, fuel, and reinforcement throughput.
- Fastiv Strike Analysis (Fact/Judgment): The successful hit on Fastiv (rail infrastructure) directly degrades the ability of UAF to move strategic reserves or Class V/VII (Ammo/Fuel) from western depots towards the front. This is a higher-impact strike than the previously assessed Zolotonosha threat, as it affects multiple routes simultaneously.
- Volyn Vector Analysis (Judgment): The UAV groups tracking to Volyn are assessed as an attempt to fix residual UAF AD assets in the far north-west, or as reconnaissance for future CM strikes targeting cross-border logistics or Western regional C2 nodes.
- RF Counter-Reconnaissance: RF reports of intercepting 116 UAF UAVs (04:12Z) indicate significant RF AD coverage remains operational, likely protecting airfields or strategic resource depots, thereby mitigating UAF deep battle resilience.
2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
While the UAF strike on Temryuk fuel storage (previous report) remains a long-term RF vulnerability (48-72 hrs), the immediate success of RF deep strikes against UAF logistics (Fastiv) places the UAF sustainment chain under immediate, acute threat.
2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
RF C2 remains robust, demonstrated by the effective execution of simultaneous, high-precision targeting across multiple distant regions (Fastiv, Dobrotvir, Zviahel, Volyn).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
- Strategic Resilience: The confirmation of a massive UAF deep-strike operation (116 UAVs targeted RF territory) demonstrates NCA resolve and operational command capability to execute complex offensive action simultaneously with critical defensive operations.
- Logistical Damage: Ukrzaliznytsia confirmation of train movement changes at Fastiv (04:06Z) confirms the need for immediate logistical re-routing and establishment of bypasses. Logistical readiness along the central axis is momentarily degraded.
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- Setback (Deep Battle): Confirmed successful kinetic strike on the Fastiv rail node.
- Success (Deep Battle): Confirmed execution of a large-scale, high-density UAF UAV strike against strategic RF rear areas. BDA of this strike remains a CRITICAL GAP (P1).
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
The most pressing constraint is the capacity of UAF Engineer and Rail Maintenance units to rapidly restore or establish bypass capacity around Fastiv. Immediate demand for rail repair materials and specialized vehicles is anticipated.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
The Information Environment is characterized by intense RF psychological operations designed to undermine Western support and project absolute operational confidence.
| Domain | Finding (FACT/Judgment) | Confidence | Operational Impact |
|---|
| RF Strategic IO | TASS claims of Russian public "pre-pandemic planning depth" (04:04Z) and projected bankruptcy of Europe (04:17Z). | HIGH (Judgment) | These messages are strategically deployed to counter any narrative of RF internal strain (e.g., impact of UAF deep strikes) and to dissuade Western countries from sustained support by framing assistance as economically ruinous. |
| UAF Resilience IO | RF reports of 116 UAF UAV intercepts. | HIGH (Fact/Judgment) | Fact: Claimed intercepts. Judgment: While RF reports this as a success, the sheer volume confirms UAF's continued capacity for large-scale, strategic offensive action, countering the narrative of UAF operational collapse. |
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
Logistical Exploitation and MLD Sustained Pressure.
- 060445Z - 060800Z: RF monitors logistical disruption caused by the Fastiv strike and launches follow-on precision strikes (CM/UAV) on secondary rail nodes (e.g., Zolotonosha, Zviahel/Korosten) to ensure redundancy failure.
- The 37th GMRB utilizes the resulting delay in UAF reserves (BRAVO-BLOCK) to consolidate its penetration at Stepnohorsk.
- UAF successfully establishes a basic rail bypass around Fastiv within 12 hours, but at a heavily reduced throughput rate.
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
Systemic Rail Network Failure and Operational Encirclement.
- RF achieves CRITICAL BDA on two additional major rail/logistical hubs (Zolotonosha and Zviahel) before UAF can implement bypasses.
- The cumulative damage results in a near-total logistical shutdown (0% throughput) to the Southern Front, forcing UAF defenders at Stepnohorsk and the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve to fight with existing stocks only.
- The 37th GMRB achieves an operational breakthrough (>10km penetration) at Stepnohorsk and begins localized encirclement maneuvers within 48 hours, knowing UAF counter-fire and reinforcement are paralyzed.
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL DECISION POINTS)
| Event | Estimated Time Frame | Decision Point | Status Update |
|---|
| P1: Logistical BDA and Re-routing (Fastiv) | 060445Z (IMMEDIATE NLT) | RAIL NETWORK REDUNDANCY ORDER: Activate all emergency engineer assets to Fastiv to assess BDA and establish immediate road/rail bypasses. | CRITICAL DECISION WINDOW |
| P2: Volyn AD Interdiction | 060500Z (NLT) | NORTHWEST AD RE-TASKING: Reallocate mobile SHORAD/EW assets (if available) to the Volyn/Rivne border area to interdict the new UAV threat stream. | URGENT |
| P3: BRAVO-BLOCK Status & Logistical Buffer | 060600Z (NLT) | RESUPPLY PRIORITY SHIFT: Reprioritize remaining logistical flow (especially Class V/VII) to Stage 2 logistical depots near the committed BRAVO-BLOCK, assuming a protracted delay from Fastiv. | IMMINENT |
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
| Priority | Gap Description | Required Action | Confidence Impact |
|---|
| P1 (CRITICAL - UAF DEEP BDA) | BDA Assessment of UAF 116 UAV Strike. Did the massed UAF counter-strike hit high-value RF targets (Airbases, POL, C2)? | IMMEDIATE IMINT/GEOINT: Focus allied/organic SAR/SATINT/HUMINT on RF rear areas (Ryazan, Bryansk, Voronezh Oblasts) to quantify damage. | HIGH |
| P1 (CRITICAL - LOGISTICS) | Fastiv BDA Assessment. Precise extent of damage to rail switches, bridges, and power supply at the Fastiv junction. | IMMEDIATE ISR/HUMINT: Deploy rapid assessment teams (Engineer Recon) to Fastiv to determine restoration timeline and bottleneck potential. | HIGH |
| P2 (FLANK SECURITY) | 38th GMRB Vector Confirmation. Continued ambiguity on the Huliaipole flank threat. | CONTINUED SIGINT/ISR: Focus EW/SIGINT collection on the 38th GMRB assembly area (Huliaipole flank). | MEDIUM |
7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS
The focus is pivoting from purely AD optimization to immediate logistical triage and mitigating the strategic effects of the Fastiv strike.
7.1. Logistics and Engineer Operations (J4 / J3 Engineer)
ACTION: P1 FASTIV LOGISTICAL TRIAGE AND RESILIENCE.
- Rapid BDA and Bypass: Immediately dispatch specialized Engineer Reconnaissance teams and Rail Maintenance crews to Fastiv to assess the feasibility and timeline for repair. Priority 1: Establish temporary road and/or track bypasses within 6 hours to maintain minimal flow.
- Route Redundancy: Immediately shift all critical supply traffic (Class V/VII) away from the Fastiv corridor to the highest-priority remaining routes, specifically emphasizing the protection of Lviv/Zviahel (confirmed AD priority in JISR 105) and Dnipropetrovsk hubs.
7.2. Air Defense Operations (J3 / AD Command)
ACTION: AD RATIONING AGAINST EXPANDED THREAT MATRIX.
- Prioritization Triage: Maintain the established high-priority point defense for Dobrotvir (Energy) and Zviahel/Korosten (C2/Rail), as success here would compound the Fastiv logistical failure.
- Volyn Interdiction: Allocate low-cost assets (e.g., Mobile EW and basic SHORAD) to the Volyn axis to disrupt UAV tracks, accepting that high-end SAMs cannot be diverted from the immediate, high-impact targets (Dobrotvir/Zviahel).
7.3. Operational Maneuver (J3 / G2)
- BRAVO-BLOCK Logistics Buffer: Commanders must be notified that the supply timeline for committed BRAVO-BLOCK units will be extended and degraded due to the Fastiv damage. They must maximize the use of existing onboard logistical stores (Class III/V) and establish a new 24-hour logistical buffer at staging areas near the front.
- Kostiantynivka Assessment: Use local tactical fire/maneuver to confirm enemy intent at Kostiantynivka (JISR 105). Do not commit strategic reserves unless confirmation indicates a major secondary LOE is underway. Focus remains Stepnohorsk.
//END OF JISR//
