JOINT INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (JISR) 25-12-06/105
TIME: 060400Z DEC 2025
SUBJECT: STRATEGIC AIR ATTACK ESCALATION. CM/UAV SATURATION CONFIRMED ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AXES. NEW TARGET VECTORS (DOBROTVIR/ZVIAHEL) VALIDATED. TACTICAL PRESSURE SUSTAINED AT STEPNOHORSK.
PRIORITY: P1 AD RE-TASKING FOR NEW CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE THREATS; P2 BRAVO-BLOCK PROTECTED ADVANCE.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
The operational environment is characterized by critical multi-domain saturation targeting Ukrainian C2, logistical arteries, and core energy infrastructure.
- Tactical Main Effort (Stepnohorsk): The 37th GMRB Main Land Drive (MLD) remains sustained. Real-time BDA on penetration depth remains a critical gap (P1).
- Deep Strike Escalation: The strategic air threat is validated and geographically expanded. UAF Air Force warnings confirm UAV/CM tracking toward previously identified critical nodes (Zhydachiv, Chernihiv, Yahotyn) and add two new critical vectors:
- Dobrotvir (Lviv Oblast): Confirmed UAVs tracking towards this location (known for major power generation/distribution infrastructure).
- Zviahel / Korosten (Zhytomyr Oblast): Confirmed threat to key road/rail junctions and potential regional C2 hubs, directly threatening the central western logistical backbone.
- Secondary Kinetic Fixation: Confirmed heavy action in Kostiantynivka, suggesting a secondary RF effort to fix UAF units or distract localized reserves away from the Stepnohorsk main effort.
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Clear skies persist across the operational area, facilitating continued RF ISR and deep strike operations.
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: HIGH/JUDGMENT)
- RF Deep Strike Forces: RF has achieved high saturation density in the Western AOR, successfully forcing UAF AD into a geographically widespread defensive posture. This deployment confirms the operational objective of systemic paralysis rather than mere localized attrition.
- UAF AD: AD assets are severely fragmented attempting to cover strategic (Lviv/Zhytomyr CM/UAVs), central (Kremenchuk/Kyiv fixation), and tactical (Stepnohorsk) axes simultaneously. This fragmentation maximizes RF Pk (Probability of Kill) against key targets.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Enemy Intent: Achieve Systemic Dislocation and C2 Degradation through simultaneous strikes on C2, Energy, and Logistics, maximizing the impact of the ongoing ground MLD.
- Targeting Deep C2/Energy (Judgment): The validated focus on Zviahel (C2/Logistics) and Dobrotvir (Energy) demonstrates a clear shift beyond purely NATO Class V/VII logistics interdiction (Lviv rail). RF is now actively targeting the foundational components of the Ukrainian operational rear: the ability to command and sustain high-tempo combat operations.
- Synchronized Pressure: The ground fight at Stepnohorsk and the deep strike are highly synchronized. The deep strike is designed to eliminate UAF NCA/Operational Command capability to effectively manage the reserve commitment (BRAVO-BLOCK) or organize counter-fires while the MLD is active.
2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- Tactical Shift: Confirmed secondary kinetic action in Kostiantynivka (03:35Z) suggests RF is attempting to widen the zone of tactical crisis, forcing UAF to divert attention and resources from the Stepnohorsk crisis.
2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
RF C2 remains effective, executing complex, multi-axis, multi-domain operations with minimal observed friction.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
- AD Posture: The UAF Air Force warning (03:56Z) confirms rapid situational awareness but highlights the massive scale of the threat. AD units are now under immediate, intense pressure to re-task and relocate to cover the new critical vectors (Dobrotvir/Zviahel) within the next 60-90 minutes before CM impacts.
- BRAVO-BLOCK Status: The critical decision (JISR 104) to partially commit the BRAVO-BLOCK NLT 060345Z must now be executed under conditions of severely degraded AD coverage for the maneuver corridor. The priority remains stabilizing the Stepnohorsk collapse, but the risk of attrition from Mangas mines and long-range fire has increased due to AD diversion.
3.2. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- Critical Resource Constraint: Strategic SAM (S-300/Patriot/NASAMS) ammunition and platform availability. The saturation attack forces UAF to expend high-cost interceptors against a vast array of targets, diminishing the overall operational reserve of AD ordnance.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
The Information Environment is aligned to exploit the kinetic operations.
| Domain | Finding (FACT/Judgment) | Confidence | Operational Impact |
|---|
| RF Strategic IO | Messaging concerning the ICC/Putin arrest warrant (03:36Z) and trivial Russian domestic news (TASS rail music, 03:41Z). | HIGH (Judgment) | Used to project an image of strategic confidence and normalcy in Russia, while simultaneously neutralizing the international legal pressure point (ICC), suggesting RF is unconcerned by external accountability. |
| Tactical Psychological Warfare | "Metro 2025. Kyiv" graphic (03:42Z). | HIGH (Judgment) | Direct PYSOP aimed at generating fear and panic in the capital city (Kyiv) concurrent with UAV/CM trajectories toward the Kyiv Oblast (Ivankiv, Yahotyn). Intended to destabilize civilian morale and C2 reliability. |
| Northern C2 Strike Claim | TASS claim of UAF Border Guard C2 destruction in Sumy (03:52Z). | HIGH (Fact/Judgment) | Fact: Claim. Judgment: Used to amplify the narrative of ubiquitous RF operational effectiveness and C2 vulnerability across all fronts, not just the Main Effort. |
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
Widespread Logistical and Regional Energy Disruption.
- 060400Z - 060630Z: RF CM/UAV salvo achieves HIGH BDA on at least one major rail transit node (Lviv or Zhytomyr) and causes significant temporary shutdown/degradation of the Dobrotvir power facility.
- UAF AD achieves partial interception, but the saturation ensures key targets are hit.
- The 37th GMRB sustains the penetration at Stepnohorsk, forcing the committed BRAVO-BLOCK elements to engage in a disadvantageous position, likely incurring high attrition and slowing the stabilization effort.
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
Systemic C2 and Energy Paralysis.
- RF strikes achieve CRITICAL BDA on the Zviahel/Korosten C2/Logistics hubs and the Dobrotvir power facility simultaneously.
- The loss of reliable communications and energy severely degrades UAF Operational Command's ability to coordinate the BRAVO-BLOCK movement and organize counter-fires on the Southern Front.
- The 37th GMRB exploits the cognitive confusion created by the deep strike, achieves a rapid operational breakthrough (>7km penetration), and isolates key UAF defensive formations at Stepnohorsk within 24 hours.
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (IMMEDIATE CRITICAL DECISION POINT)
| Event | Estimated Time Frame | Decision Point | Status Update |
|---|
| P1: AD Re-allocation for New Vectors (Dobrotvir/Zviahel) | 060415Z (IMMEDIATE NLT) | AD RE-TASKING ORDER: Commit specific SAM resources to the newly confirmed, high-value C2/Energy nodes. | CRITICAL DECISION WINDOW |
| P2: BRAVO-BLOCK Protected Advance | 060430Z (NLT) | Movement Status Confirmation: Verify that MCLC/Engineer elements are leading the 25% reserve commitment, accepting reduced AD cover. | CRITICAL DELAY RISK |
| RF CM Impact Window | 060600Z - 060630Z (IMMINENT) | C2/Logistical Redundancy Activation: Activate secondary (radio/satellite) C2 networks for regional commands (West/Central) prior to anticipated degradation. | IMMINENT |
| P1: MLD Status Confirmation | 060445Z (NLT) | Counter-attack Threshold: Real-time UAV BDA is required to determine if full BRAVO-BLOCK commitment is now necessary due to penetration depth. | P1 GAP (MLD STATUS) |
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
| Priority | Gap Description | Required Action | Confidence Impact |
|---|
| P1 (CRITICAL - AD TARGETING) | Confirmed CM Flight Paths and Specific Target Sets. Precise tracking of strategic CM vectors to optimize SAM placement on Dobrotvir (Energy) and Zviahel (C2/Rail). | IMMEDIATE ISR/ELINT: Continuous, dedicated AD/EW/AWACS tracking focused on confirmed CM launch vectors and projected flight paths, prioritizing the Western AOR. | HIGH |
| P1 (CRITICAL - FORCE COMMITMENT) | 37th GMRB Penetration Depth/Success and PL Alpha Integrity. | IMMEDIATE ISR (UAV/SATINT): Re-task dedicated assets to the Stepnohorsk AO penetration zone. | HIGH |
| P2 (SECONDARY FIXATION) | Kostiantynivka Operational Intent. Is this a full-scale secondary LOE or a localized fixing operation? | URGENT ISR/SIGINT: Focus local tactical ISR on the Kostiantynivka axis to confirm RF unit identity and mass. | MEDIUM |
| P2 (FLANK SECURITY) | 38th GMRB Vector Confirmation. Confirmation of bypass or feint remains vital, as loss of the flank would seal the Southern Front defeat. | CONTINUED SIGINT/ISR: Focus EW/SIGINT collection on the 38th GMRB assembly area (Huliaipole flank). | MEDIUM |
7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS
The focus is immediate tactical AD optimization against the expanding strategic threat matrix, and protecting the ground maneuver.
7.1. Air Defense Operations (J3 / AD Command)
ACTION: P1 STRATEGIC AIR DEFENSE TRIAGE REVISION AND CM INTERCEPTION.
- CM/UAV Priority Intercept (060415Z): IMMEDIATELY re-task SAM assets to provide point defense priority to:
- Zviahel/Korosten (C2/Rail Hubs).
- Dobrotvir (Power Facility).
- Lviv Transit Hubs.
- UAV Management (Widespread): All available SHORAD (Gepard, VADS) must focus exclusively on defending the highest-value UAV target vectors in the Western AOR (Lviv/Zhytomyr). Accept anticipated BDA on lower-priority central targets (e.g., Yahotyn/Chernihiv) to conserve high-end SAMs for CM.
7.2. Operational Maneuver and Fires (J3 / G2)
ACTION: EXECUTE PROTECTED BRAVO-BLOCK COMMITMENT AND MANAGE SECONDARY FIXATION.
- Reserve Movement Confirmation: CONFIRM AND SECURE THE EXECUTION of the 25% BRAVO-BLOCK partial commitment led by MCLC/Engineers. Emphasize speed of maneuver over perfect security.
- C2 Redundancy (Zhytomyr): Immediately activate secondary, hardened communications links (SATCOM/fiber backups) for all UAF regional headquarters located near Zviahel/Korosten, anticipating a primary C2 network degradation.
- Kostiantynivka Assessment: Allocate limited tactical ISR to rapidly determine the mass and intent of the Kostiantynivka action. If determined to be a major LOE, prepare a localized reserve (NLT 10% of BRAVO-BLOCK) to counter-fix this area. If a feint, ignore and focus all remaining efforts on Stepnohorsk.
7.3. Electronic Warfare (J6)
- Jamming Focus (Western UAVs): Maintain high-power jamming focused on the Western AOR to disrupt the C2 links of UAVs targeting Zhydachiv, Dobrotvir, and Zviahel.
- Frontal Support: Maintain dedicated jamming against 37th GMRB ISR/C2 to protect the maneuver corridor of the partially committed BRAVO-BLOCK reserve.
//END OF JISR//
