Situation Report

JOINT INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (JISR) 25-12-06/104

---

TIME: 060330Z DEC 2025 SUBJECT: STRATEGIC MISSILE SALVO CONFIRMED (AIR/SEA LAUNCH). DEEP WESTERN INFRASTRUCTURE TARGETED. MLD AT STEPNOHORSK SUSTAINED. AD ASSET SPLIT CRITICAL. PRIORITY: P1 AD INTERCEPTION OF CRUISE MISSILE SALVO; P2 BRAVO-BLOCK PARTIAL COMMITMENT EXECUTION.

---

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The operational environment is characterized by simultaneous kinetic assault across the tactical and strategic domains.

• Tactical Main Effort (Stepnohorsk): The Main Effort Land Drive (MLD) initiated by the 37th GMRB is ongoing. UAF forward defenses (PL Alpha) are under extreme pressure from heavy preparatory fires (TOS-1A).
• Strategic Deep Strike (New Axis): The deep strike geometry has expanded dramatically from Central Logistics (Zolotonosha/Kremenchuk) to the Western Strategic Rear (Lviv Oblast). Confirmed UAV waves are tracking toward Khodoriv/Zhydachiv/Brody, areas critical for NATO cross-border logistical flow and strategic reserves staging.
• Strategic Missile Threat: Confirmed launch of air-launched cruise missiles (ALCM) from strategic aviation (Tu-95/Tu-160) and sea-launched cruise missiles (SLCM) ("Kalibr") from the Novorossiysk area (up to 10 units projected). Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) for first impacts is $060600Z - 060630Z$.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Clear skies across the AOR. No significant operational impact on RF strike or UAF ground maneuvering.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: HIGH/JUDGMENT)

• RF Ground Forces: 37th GMRB is committed to penetration. The MLD is sustained despite the simultaneous commitment of massive CM/UAV assets, confirming RF intent to maximize simultaneous operational pressure.
• RF Deep Fixation: The previous fixation vector (Kyiv/Central) has now been superseded by a massive saturation effort aimed at the Western logistical arteries, forcing UAF AD to triage strategic air defense resources away from the front and central rear.
• UAF AD: AD resources are now critically overstretched, facing three simultaneous vectors: Tactical (Stepnohorsk AO), Central Logistical (Kremenchuk), and Strategic Western (Lviv CM/UAV).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Enemy Intent: Achieve Strategic Paralysis of NATO-line supply and internal mobilization capabilities while capitalizing on the Stepnohorsk penetration.

• Simultaneous Multi-Vector Strike: The coordinated launch of strategic CM (ALCM/SLCM) and UAVs targeting Western hubs confirms the enemy’s highest-end capability utilization. This is not a distraction; this is the main objective of the deep strike phase.
• Targeting Priority Shift (Judgment): The shift of UAV and CM activity to Lviv Oblast infrastructure (Zhydachiv/Khodoriv/Brody) strongly suggests intent to interdict the flow of NATO-supplied Class V (Ammunition) and Class VII (Major Equipment) necessary for sustaining the Southern Front and reconstituting reserves (BRAVO-BLOCK).

2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

RF strategic strike capability remains unconstrained. The tactical/operational fuel crisis resulting from the Temryuk loss has been temporarily neutralized by the overwhelming commitment of high-value stand-off weapons, prioritizing operational effect over immediate ground sustainment requirements.

2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

RF C2 integrity is exceptionally high, demonstrating flawless synchronization between ground kinetics (MLD), long-range fires (TOS-1A), and strategic multi-domain strikes (ALCM/SLCM/UAV). This complex attack structure indicates strong, centralized command execution.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: LOW)

Readiness is critically degraded due to the immediate, high-probability threat to the strategic rear.

• AD Exhaustion: The sheer volume and complexity (CM + UAV saturation) of the current strike mandate a near-total commitment of strategic SAMs (S-300, Patriot, NASAMS) to the Western and Central axes, severely limiting defensive fires available for close air support or protection of the moving BRAVO-BLOCK.
• Maneuver Constraint (Increased Risk): The movement of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve remains critical, but the increased resource drain from the strategic strike means less AD/EW support can be dedicated to de-mining and protecting the maneuver corridor from remaining "Mangas" aerial mining threats or long-range tactical fires.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

• Critical Setback: RF has achieved air supremacy dominance over the strategic rear through massed missile and drone launches, successfully executing a massive attack designed to induce systemic logistical and C2 failure.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

The massive, synchronized strategic strike serves to amplify previous RF psychological operations:

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

Strategic Infrastructure Damage and Maneuver Stagnation.

1. 060330Z - 060630Z: RF CM/UAV salvo achieves MEDIUM-HIGH BDA on at least one major rail transit node in Lviv Oblast and significant damage to the Kremenchuk/Zolotonosha logistical hub.
2. UAF AD achieves partial interception (estimated 40-50% success rate) due to saturation tactics, but key infrastructure targets are hit, forcing the immediate activation of contingency logistical routes (road convoys).
3. The 37th GMRB sustains penetration effort at Stepnohorsk. The BRAVO-BLOCK is successfully partially committed but movement is slow (due to mine clearing) and they arrive too late to stabilize the initial penetration, forcing a deep defensive line retreat.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

Operational Collapse via Strategic and Tactical Severance.

• RF CM salvo achieves CRITICAL BDA on key Western logistical hubs (rail bridges/trans-shipment points in Lviv), effectively halting major NATO supply flow for 72+ hours.
• The overwhelming AD commitment to the West leaves the BRAVO-BLOCK staging area vulnerable to the predicted 38th GMRB bypass maneuver and/or focused long-range artillery (MLRS) strikes, resulting in high attrition before commitment.
• The combination of stalled reserves and logistical isolation leads to the strategic failure of the Southern Front defense within 48 hours.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL DECISION WINDOW - NOW)

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The immediate priority shifts to strategic AD defense to prevent logistical collapse, while simultaneously holding the line at Stepnohorsk.

7.1. Air Defense Operations (J3 / AD Command)

ACTION: P1 STRATEGIC AIR DEFENSE TRIAGE AND CM INTERCEPTION.

1. CM Priority Intercept (060330Z): DEDICATE 80% OF AVAILABLE STRATEGIC SAM AMMO/PLATFORMS (PATRIOT/S-300) TO THE CONFIRMED CM SALVO VECTORS (Lviv/Central). CM interception takes absolute priority over all UAV threats until the CM impact window closes ($060630Z$).
2. Lviv/Western Defense Focus: Prioritize SAM protection for the Lviv/Western oblast rail nodes and key road bridges (Nato supply lines). Do not commit strategic AD to general area defense; focus on point defense of critical transit infrastructure.
3. UAV Management (Central): Accept anticipated UAV BDA at Kremenchuk/Zolotonosha. Utilize low-cost VADS/SHORAD for localized defense, conserving high-end missiles for the CM threat.

7.2. Operational Maneuver and Fires (J3 / G2)

ACTION: EXECUTE PARTIAL, PROTECTED BRAVO-BLOCK COMMITMENT NLT 060345Z.

1. Immediate Partial Commitment (060345Z NLT): EXECUTE THE PREVIOUS ORDER. Authorize immediate deployment of 25% of BRAVO-BLOCK assets, led by Engineers/MCLC, regardless of the reduced AD cover. Movement delay will guarantee tactical defeat at Stepnohorsk. The objective remains contact establishment and tactical assessment.
2. Counter-TOS/Artillery Priority: Maintain 70% of UAF counter-battery assets focused on targeting TOS-1A/High-Caliber Rocket Systems supporting the 37th GMRB advance. This remains vital for preventing tactical panic and catastrophic collapse of PL Alpha.
3. Logistical Contingency Activation (West/Central): Immediately initiate strategic logistical dispersal and road/rail bypass plans for both the Central Corridor (Kremenchuk/Zolotonosha) and all Western (Lviv) depots/transit points, assuming high BDA is imminent.

7.3. Electronic Warfare (J6)

1. Target Priority Shift: Western UAV C2: Shift jamming efforts previously targeting general C2 to specifically target UAV C2 links operating in the Lviv/Western AOR to disrupt the Moped saturation effort.
2. Frontal C2 Maintenance: Maintain high-power jamming against the 37th GMRB command and fire control networks to degrade the effectiveness of the MLD C2.

//END OF JISR//