JOINT INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (JISR) 25-12-06/103
TIME: 060315Z DEC 2025
SUBJECT: MLD INITIATED. STEPNOHORSK PENETRATION IMMINENT. LOGISTICAL FIXATION EXPANDED TO KREMENCHUK. BDA AND RESERVE STATUS CRITICAL GAPS REMAIN.
PRIORITY: P1 MLD PENETRATION ASSESSMENT; P2 RESERVE FORCE (BRAVO-BLOCK) PARTIAL COMMITMENT AUTHORIZATION.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
The operational environment has transitioned from the preparatory phase into Phase III: Ground Exploitation. RF forces are estimated to be in the process of initiating the Main Effort Land Drive (MLD) at Stepnohorsk (P2 Maneuver Axis).
- P2 Maneuver Axis (Stepnohorsk): MLD launch window (NLT 060300Z) has opened. Initial RF preparatory fires are confirmed high-intensity, likely involving thermobaric systems (TOS-1A video, 03:03Z).
- P4 Deep Strike Sector (Central Corridor): The logistical fixation effort has expanded. A new wave of approximately 10 UAVs is tracking toward Kremenchuk/Svetlovodsk (Poltava Oblast, 02:46Z, 02:52Z). This location is a major industrial and transit hub adjacent to the Zolotonosha COG, confirming enemy intent to maximize logistical paralysis across the entire central corridor.
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Clear skies across the AOR. No operational impact.
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: HIGH/JUDGMENT)
- RF Ground Forces: The 37th GMRB is presumed committed to the Stepnohorsk penetration. The high-intensity IO supporting the MLD (TOS-1A video) suggests RF command confidence in rapid tactical success.
- RF Deep Fixation: The UAV fixation pattern is highly dynamic and aggressive, targeting Ternopil/Khmelnytskyi (Western) and now Kremenchuk/Svetlovodsk (Central). This forces continuous resource commitment to low-priority targets, ensuring UAF AD assets are dispersed away from the MLD COG.
- P2 Reserve Status (BRAVO-BLOCK): CRITICAL VULNERABILITY. The unit remains unaccounted for regarding the execution of hardening/dispersal orders (P1 Gap). This immobility is now directly synchronized with the MLD launch and high-intensity TOS-1A fires.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Enemy Intent: Achieve rapid penetration through Stepnohorsk and neutralize UAF reserves through simultaneous aerial mining ("Mangas") and overwhelming preparatory/close support fires (TOS-1A).
- Ground Penetration: The likely deployment of TOS-1A "Solntsepek" systems indicates RF intent to rapidly suppress UAF forward defenses using extremely heavy, morale-breaking fires, minimizing the time required for the 37th GMRB to reach objectives.
- Logistical Targeting: The shift of follow-on UAV activity from Poltava general disruption to Kremenchuk/Svetlovodsk confirms that RF is attempting to redundantly sever the central logistical pipeline, assuming the initial Zolotonosha strike (BDA pending) may have been inconclusive or partial.
2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
RF immediate kinetic capacity remains high (evidenced by continued multi-vector UAV strikes and the confirmed use/projection of high-value fires like TOS-1A). The long-term fuel crisis (Temryuk loss) has not impacted the critical MLD execution window (T=0).
2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
RF C2 maintains high synchronization integrity. The coordination between the MLD initiation, the deployment of high-value assets (TOS-1A), and the immediate shift of drone fixation efforts to the Kremenchuk/Svetlovodsk area demonstrates adaptive and integrated multi-domain operations.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
Readiness is critically degraded by the uncertainty of the MLD's initial success and the continued ambiguity regarding the BRAVO-BLOCK's ability to commit.
- AD Resource Drain: UAF AD must now split critical resources between Zolotonosha (P4 primary target) and the new Kremenchuk/Svetlovodsk vector, further complicating the defense of the logistical COG.
- Maneuver Constraint: The MLD initiation, supported by heavy fires, increases the urgency of BRAVO-BLOCK movement, even as the risk of attrition via "Mangas" mines and focused long-range fires remains extreme.
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- Setback (Logistical Stress): RF has successfully created a complex, multi-layered threat matrix against the logistical rear, forcing continuous reactive resource allocation.
- Setback (Information Environment): Hungary's diplomatic move to block the EU financial plan (02:43Z) provides a strategic setback, leveraging the RF narrative of fading international support during kinetic action.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
| Domain | Finding (FACT/Judgment) | Confidence | Operational Impact |
|---|
| Tactical Psychological Warfare | Colonelcassad release of TOS-1A footage (03:03Z). | HIGH (Judgment) | Synchronized release to maximize fear and demoralization among Stepnohorsk defenders during the MLD penetration phase. Intended to accelerate localized collapse. |
| Strategic/Diplomatic IO | Hungary blocks EU financial plan ("Plan B") for Ukraine (02:43Z). | HIGH (Fact) | Provides immediate, verifiable evidence supporting RF narratives of internal political collapse and Western failure to agree on sustained support, undermining National Command Authority (NCA) cohesion. |
| Long-Term Technology Signaling | Colonelcassad features Chinese YS-1 "Yansuan-1" stealth drone concept (02:35Z). | MEDIUM (Judgment) | Low immediate tactical impact, but signals RF interest in future high-speed, stealth, deep-strike capability, potentially signaling long-term procurement or technology goals. |
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
Sustained Penetration and Logistical Severance.
- 060315Z - 060400Z: The 37th GMRB breaches the forward line (PL Alpha), utilizing UGVs/TOS-1A support. The inability to confirm BRAVO-BLOCK status means no immediate large-scale UAF counter-attack materializes.
- UAV strikes (Kremenchuk/Zolotonosha) achieve HIGH BDA on key transit nodes, initiating the logistical shock.
- UAF forces at Stepnohorsk are forced into a planned, localized withdrawal to avoid encirclement, trading space for time.
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
Operational Paralysis and Reserve Attrition.
- RF long-range fires (including TOS-1A saturation) are highly successful against the forward line, achieving an immediate collapse of PL Alpha.
- The BRAVO-BLOCK reserve is located, targeted, and attrited in place before movement can commence, leading to operational paralysis in the Stepnohorsk AO.
- The 38th GMRB on the Huliaipole flank exploits the paralysis and begins an immediate, rapid bypass maneuver, utilizing the logistical confusion caused by the Zolotonosha/Kremenchuk strikes to sever north-south resupply completely.
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL - TIME OVERRUN)
| Event | Estimated Time Frame | Decision Point | Status Update |
|---|
| RF Tactical Exploitation Initiation (Stepnohorsk MLD) | 060300Z (INITIATED) | Immediate MLD Status Confirmation: Is the 37th GMRB facing immediate resistance or rapid penetration? | P1 GAP (MLD STATUS) |
| P1: BRAVO-BLOCK Status Confirmation/Commitment | 060315Z (IMMEDIATE) | Partial/Engineering Led Commit Decision: Authorize limited reserve movement with MCLC lead, assuming AoAs are mined. | CRITICAL DECISION WINDOW |
| P4: Zolotonosha BDA Confirmation | 060330Z (NLT) | Logistical Contingency Activation: Initiate rail bypass/road convoy plan based on damage severity (0-100%). | P1 GAP (BDA) |
| P4: Kremenchuk UAV Impact | 060330Z - 060400Z | AD Interdiction Assessment: Confirmation of VADS/SHORAD effectiveness against the new Kremenchuk wave. | IMMINENT |
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
| Priority | Gap Description | Required Action | Confidence Impact |
|---|
| P1 (CRITICAL - MLD ASSESSMENT) | 37th GMRB Penetration Depth/Success. Real-time assessment of RF kinetic activity vs. UAF retention of PL Alpha. | IMMEDIATE ISR (UAV/SATINT): Re-task dedicated assets to the Stepnohorsk AO penetration zone. | HIGH |
| P1 (CRITICAL - FORCE COMMITMENT) | BRAVO-BLOCK Real-Time Status/Response. Confirm attrition level and ability to disperse or commit partially. | IMMEDIATE ISR/HUMINT: Continuous UAV coverage focusing specifically on the staging area (NLT 060330Z). | HIGH |
| P2 (TARGETING - FIRES) | TOS-1A Firing Position Identification. Locate launchers for immediate suppression fire. | URGENT EW/SIGINT: Focus counter-battery/radar collection on suspected forward fire support areas of the 37th GMRB. | MEDIUM |
| P3 (FLANK SECURITY) | 38th GMRB Vector Confirmation. Is the 38th GMRB moving from assembly/feint to an attack vector following the MLD launch? | CONTINUED SIGINT/ISR: Focus EW/SIGINT collection on the 38th GMRB assembly area (Huliaipole flank). | MEDIUM |
7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS
7.1. Operational Maneuver and Fires (J3 / G2)
ACTION: EXECUTE PARTIAL, PROTECTED BRAVO-BLOCK COMMITMENT AND COUNTER-TOS FIRES.
- Immediate Partial Commitment (060320Z): DO NOT WAIT FOR FULL STATUS CONFIRMATION. Authorize immediate, limited deployment of 25% of BRAVO-BLOCK assets, led by dedicated Engineer units utilizing Mine Clearing Line Charges (MCLC) to punch a single, hardened lane toward PL Alpha. The goal is to establish contact and confirm the penetration depth, not achieve a full counter-attack yet.
- Counter-TOS/Artillery Priority: Shift 70% of available UAF counter-battery assets to Targeting TOS-1A/High-Caliber Rocket Systems supporting the 37th GMRB advance. This is essential to prevent rapid defensive collapse.
- Logistical Bypass Activation: Immediately initiate the pre-planned road convoy logistical contingency from alternate supply points, assuming the Zolotonosha/Kremenchuk axis is now severely degraded or severed.
7.2. Air Defense Operations (J3 / AD Command)
ACTION: SPLIT CRITICAL AD ASSETS BETWEEN ZOLOTONOSHA AND KREMENCHUK.
- Immediate Kremenchuk/Svetlovodsk Allocation: Redirect all available mobile VADS/SHORAD systems previously held in rear reserve toward defending POL storage, rail junctions, and C2 nodes within the Kremenchuk/Svetlovodsk AO.
- Sustained Zolotonosha Defense: Maintain static and remaining mobile AD resources dedicated to Zolotonosha until BDA confirms the severity of the damage.
7.3. Electronic Warfare (J6)
- Target Priority Shift: Focus on Frontal C2 and Fire Support. Shift jamming efforts away from the general BRAVO-BLOCK area (which should now be moving) to specifically target the C2 and targeting frequencies of the 37th GMRB advance elements and the suspected fire control systems for TOS-1A/MLRS platforms.
- Counter-Mangas Vetting: Continue low-level, regional jamming along the planned BRAVO-BLOCK movement corridor to degrade any "Mangas" attempts to re-mine the route during movement.
//END OF JISR//
