JOINT INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (JISR) 25-12-06/102
TIME: 060234Z DEC 2025
SUBJECT: MLD EXECUTION IMMINENT. ZOLOTONOSHA STRIKE WINDOW CLOSED. CRITICAL GAPS IN BDA AND RESERVE STATUS PERSIST.
PRIORITY: P1 ZOLOTONOSHA BATTLE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT (BDA); P2 BRAVO-BLOCK STATUS CONFIRMATION.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
The operational environment has transitioned from the deep strike synchronization phase to the immediate preparatory phase for the Main Effort Land Drive (MLD).
- P4 Deep Strike Sector (Zolotonosha): The Cruise Missile Impact Window (060200Z - 060230Z) has concluded. The effectiveness of the saturation strike is currently unknown, constituting the highest priority intelligence gap (P1 BDA).
- P2 Maneuver Axis (Stepnohorsk): The 37th GMRB MLD is now estimated to launch within T-30 minutes (NLT 060300Z). The operational goal remains severing the supply lines and isolating the Zaporizhzhia sector.
- Huliaipole Flank: Confirmed kinetic activity targeting Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) rotation/reinforcement elements near Huliaipole (TASS, 0215Z), validating the enemy intent to neutralize flank support or reinforce the bypass threat posed by the 38th GMRB.
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Clear skies across the AOR. No operational impact on kinetic or ground maneuver.
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- RF Deep Fixation: Enemy intent to disperse UAF IADS is confirmed and expanded. UAV groups previously tracking toward Poltava are now augmented by new vectors deep into Western Ukraine: confirmed activity in Khmelnytskyi Oblast transitioning toward Ternopil Oblast (02:11Z, 02:31Z). This strains AD resources far beyond the critical operational center of gravity (Zolotonosha).
- P2 Reserve Status (BRAVO-BLOCK): CRITICAL VULNERABILITY. No updated C2 confirmation or ISR observation regarding the reserve force's dispersal or hardening following the failure to execute the 060145Z decision point. The unit remains vulnerable to RF attrition fires synchronized with the MLD launch.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Enemy Intent: The enemy is transitioning seamlessly from logistical interdiction to ground exploitation, maximizing the effect of the anticipated logistical shock and UAF AD resource dispersion.
- Synchronization Integrity: RF C2 is performing highly effectively, achieving the synchronization of the deep strike conclusion, continued AD fixation (Central and Western Ukraine), and tactical pre-emption (Huliaipole interdiction) immediately prior to the MLD launch.
- Ground Penetration: The continued threat posed by "Kuryer" UGVs for breaching and "Mangas" UAS for rear-area mining suggests high confidence in RF achieving Phase Line ALPHA penetration quickly.
- Tactical Priority Shift: The TASS report (0215Z) on disrupting UAF rotation confirms that RF is prioritizing the neutralization of potential UAF counter-attack or consolidation forces on the Huliaipole flank, indicating that the 38th GMRB may be intended as an operational exploitation force, not just a feint.
2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
RF strategic strike capacity remains high (evidenced by continued multi-vector UAV strikes). The Temryuk fuel depot loss remains a long-term (48-72h) issue, but has not impacted the immediate kinetic or MLD execution capacity. The success of the RF operation now hinges on the degree of logistical paralysis achieved at Zolotonosha.
2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
RF C2 integrity is confirmed high across all domains. The synchronized execution across vast geographic areas (Zolotonosha, Ternopil, Huliaipole) during the strike window demonstrates robust multi-domain integration.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
Readiness remains critically degraded by the uncertainty regarding the Zolotonosha BDA and the continued lack of confirmation regarding the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve status.
- IADS Stress: The confirmed movement of UAV groups toward Ternopil forces regional commands to commit increasingly scarce AD assets deep into the rear, potentially diverting interceptors that could be used against follow-on tactical aviation or subsequent deep strikes.
- Maneuver Constraint: The continued threat of "Mangas" aerial mining and the confirmed RF interdiction attempts (Huliaipole) severely restrict UAF maneuver options for reserve commitment or flank reinforcement.
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
- Setback (Huliaipole): RF claims success in disrupting UAF rotation near Huliaipole. This directly threatens the coherence of the UAF defensive line and limits the ability to stabilize the flanks prior to the Stepnohorsk assault. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM, pending UAF confirmation of damage/disruption).
- Setback (AD Fixation): UAF is forced to commit AD assets to low-priority targets in Western Ukraine, confirming the success of the RF AD dispersal strategy.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
| Domain | Finding (FACT/Judgment) | Confidence | Operational Impact |
|---|
| Tactical IO | TASS/RU MoD video (0215Z) reporting successful drone/artillery interdiction of UAF rotation near Huliaipole. | HIGH (Fact/Judgment) | Directly supports the kinetic action by demoralizing UAF forward lines and reinforcing the narrative that reinforcements cannot arrive or are being neutralized. |
| Domestic Distraction (RF) | Russian MVD issued a broad public safety warning regarding financial crime (0210Z). | MEDIUM (Judgment) | Assessed as high-level informational noise/control, distracting the domestic population during a period of high operational activity in Ukraine and potentially masking resource shifts or political maneuvering within Russia. |
| External Fixation | Persistent reporting and AD asset allocation to targets in Western Ukraine (Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil). | HIGH (Judgment) | Maintains the cognitive load on UAF command and forces immediate resource decisions under extreme time pressure, ensuring the main effort (Stepnohorsk) is launched against a dispersed defense. |
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
Immediate MLD Launch and Shallow Penetration.
- 060230Z - 060300Z: RF launches preparatory fire on known UAF strong points and likely BRAVO-BLOCK staging areas.
- 060300Z - 060400Z: MLD Initiation. The 37th GMRB commits main force, utilizing "Kuryer" UGVs to breach forward lines, exploiting the logistical shock resulting from the Zolotonosha strike (even if partial).
- UAF Response: Stalled or attrited BRAVO-BLOCK cannot fully commit, resulting in localized UAF withdrawal to maintain unit cohesion under intense fire.
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
Operational Paralysis and Flank Exploitation.
- Confirmation of catastrophic BDA at Zolotonosha (e.g., total severing of the main rail bridge).
- RF long-range fires successfully attrit the immobilized BRAVO-BLOCK staging area concurrently with the MLD launch (060300Z).
- The Huliaipole interdiction proves highly effective, allowing the 38th GMRB to rapidly transition from feint/holding action into a deep bypass maneuver, targeting the UAF rear areas simultaneously with the 37th GMRB's frontal penetration.
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL)
| Event | Estimated Time Frame | Decision Point | Status Update |
|---|
| P4: Cruise Missile Impact Window | 060200Z - 060230Z (PASSED) | BDA CONFIRMATION (CRITICAL): Immediate assessment of Zolotonosha infrastructure damage level (0-100%). | GAP/UNKNOWN |
| RF Tactical Exploitation Initiation (Stepnohorsk MLD) | 060230Z - 060300Z (T-30 Min) | Fires Confirmation: Sustained counter-battery fires targeting 37th GMRB must be confirmed to maximize pre-MLD attrition. | IMMINENT |
| P2: BRAVO-BLOCK Movement Confirmation | 060145Z (PASSED) | P1 (CRITICAL): Immediate ISR/SIGINT confirmation of unit status (dispersal, hardening, attrition level). | FAILURE TO EXECUTE (P1 GAP) |
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
| Priority | Gap Description | Required Action | Confidence Impact |
|---|
| P1 (CRITICAL - STRIKE ASSESSMENT) | Zolotonosha Battle Damage Assessment (BDA). Level of damage to the rail junction/bridge and associated POL storage. | IMMEDIATE ISR (UAV/SATINT): Re-task any available assets to the Zolotonosha critical infrastructure area for visual confirmation (NLT 060300Z). | HIGH |
| P1 (CRITICAL - MANEUVER EXECUTION) | BRAVO-BLOCK Real-Time Status/Response. Has the unit dispersed/hardened, or is it stationary and targeted? | IMMEDIATE ISR/HUMINT: Continuous UAV coverage focusing specifically on the staging area (NLT 060245Z). | HIGH |
| P2 (FLANK SECURITY) | Huliaipole Damage Assessment. Extent of disruption to UAF rotation forces and confirmation of 38th GMRB assembly status. | URGENT SIGINT/ISR: Focus EW/SIGINT collection on the 38th GMRB assembly area to confirm whether they are transitioning to an attack vector. | MEDIUM |
| P3 (AIR DEFENSE FIXATION) | Ternopil UAV Intent. Specific targets for the new Western Ukraine vector. | CONTINUED EW/ISR: Maintain jamming efforts and attempt to track UAV terminal guidance systems to identify high-value targets in Khmelnytskyi/Ternopil. | MEDIUM |
7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS
7.1. Operational Maneuver and Fires (J3 / G2)
ACTION: PUSH BRAVO-BLOCK STATUS CONFIRMATION AND PREPARE CONTINGENCY FIRES.
- Reiterate Hardening/Dispersal Order (060235Z): Assume the BRAVO-BLOCK unit is under direct kinetic threat. Issue the order again via all redundant C2 channels (SATCOM, line, courier) to disperse/harden immediately.
- Target Package Adjustment: Pending Zolotonosha BDA, prepare immediate contingency fire missions:
- If BDA is HIGH (Rail Severed): Shift existing artillery allocation away from counter-battery (as ammunition will soon be scarce) toward high-value, high-attrition fires directly into the 37th GMRB assembly area to maximize pre-launch casualty rates.
- If BDA is LOW (Operational): Maintain high-volume counter-battery fires to suppress MLD launch windows.
- Huliaipole Flank Security: Increase ISR coverage and initiate preemptive saturation fires on known RF observation posts and staging areas around Huliaipole to deter the 38th GMRB exploitation.
7.2. Air Defense Operations (J3 / AD Command)
ACTION: ACCEPT WESTERN RISK; FOCUS ON POST-STRIKE DEFENSE.
- Immediate BDA Confirmation: AD assets in the vicinity of Zolotonosha must provide immediate post-impact confirmation (via RWR, visual, or sensor) of the strike effectiveness to inform the J3's logistical planning.
- Prioritize Defense of Local Reserves: Given the MLD threat (T-30), mobile VADS/SHORAD assets near the Stepnohorsk AO must remain focused on protecting tactical reserves and forward C2 nodes, accepting further low-value damage from the fixation strikes in Khmelnytskyi/Ternopil.
7.3. Electronic Warfare (J6)
- Primary Focus: BRAVO-BLOCK Protection: Dedicate all available high-power EW platforms to blanketing the identified BRAVO-BLOCK area to deny RF targeting data and prevent the immediate activation of "Mangas" mines if the unit attempts emergency movement.
- Secondary Focus: 37th GMRB C2: Initiate maximum power jamming against the known C2 frequencies of the 37th GMRB to disrupt final attack coordination during the critical 060230Z-060300Z preparatory fire window.
//END OF JISR//
