JOINT INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (JISR) 25-12-06/101
TIME: 060157Z DEC 2025
SUBJECT: MLD KINETIC SYNCHRONIZATION COMMENCING (T-3 MINUTES). CRITICAL FAILURE TO CONFIRM BRAVO-BLOCK STATUS. ZOLOTONOSHA STRIKE IMMINENT.
PRIORITY: P1 IADS EXECUTION CHECK (IMMEDIATE); P2 BRAVO-BLOCK DISPERSAL/HARDENING ORDER (CRITICAL).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
The operational environment has reached the predicted zenith of kinetic synchronization. The window for pre-emptive maneuver is closed; the focus shifts entirely to survival and immediate tactical defense.
- P4 Deep Strike Sector (Zolotonosha): Estimated Impact Time (EIT) is now T-3 to T-30 minutes (060200Z - 060230Z). All indicators confirm the 7x bomber payload is terminal toward the Zolotonosha rail infrastructure.
- P2 Maneuver Axis (Stepnohorsk): The 37th GMRB MLD is poised for launch NLT 060300Z.
- Kyiv Fixation: Confirmed kinetic strikes (drones/missiles) resulted in 3x civilian casualties in the Kyiv region, validating the enemy's intent to sustain AD dispersal pressure.
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Clear skies across the AOR. No operational impact.
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- RF Deep Strike: Cruise missile volley is currently airborne and approaching target areas.
- RF UAS Activity (Expanded Fixation): New vectors detected (Air Force, 0144Z): UAVs previously tracking in Sumy Oblast (near Sumy, Lebedyn, Okhtyrka) are confirmed redirecting toward Poltava Oblast. This expands the fixation corridor further East/Northeast, attempting to draw AD assets away from Zolotonosha or harass follow-on reserves originating from Eastern Ukraine.
- P2 Reserve Status (BRAVO-BLOCK): CRITICAL COMMAND FAILURE POINT. The required command confirmation of movement or dispersal (NLT 060145Z) has NOT BEEN MET. The unit is now highly vulnerable to the pending strategic strike (T-3 minutes).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Enemy Intent: The enemy is successfully executing the MLCOA: Kinetic strikes (Zolotonosha, Kyiv) synchronized with ground launch (Stepnohorsk).
- Synchronization Integrity: The enemy has demonstrated effective C2 integration, maintaining fixation strikes (Kyiv, Poltava vector) to ensure optimal conditions for the strategic saturation strike on Zolotonosha.
- Deep Logistics Disruption: The expanded UAS vectors (Vinnytsia, Poltava) confirm RF intent to interdict all potential logistics or reserve AoAs supporting the Southern Front, reinforcing the logistical paralysis goal.
2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
RF strategic strike capacity remains high. While the Temryuk fuel depot loss is a 48-72 hour problem for RF SGF, it has no impact on the current deep strike or MLD execution timeline.
2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
RF C2 remains effective, achieving complex multi-domain synchronization across geographically separated targets (Kyiv, Sumy/Poltava, Zolotonosha, Stepnohorsk) with precise timing relative to the launch window.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
Readiness is severely degraded by the lack of confirmed reserve status and the necessary dispersal of AD assets.
- Vulnerability: The BRAVO-BLOCK reserve is facing a catastrophic force-on-force dilemma. If stalled, they face deep strike attrition; if moving without MCLC lead, they face tactical attrition from "Mangas" minefields. The failure of command to execute the critical decision point (060145Z) elevates the risk of the MDCOA substantially.
- IADS Stress: The confirmation of new Poltava-bound UAVs forces AD commanders to make rapid, high-risk allocation choices with T-3 minutes remaining until impact.
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- Setbacks (Immediate): 3x confirmed casualties in Kyiv Oblast resulting from the fixation strikes. Failure to activate/confirm the BRAVO-BLOCK contingency plan prior to the kinetic saturation phase.
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CRITICAL)
All available mobile AD fire units must prioritize Zolotonosha. The constraint is time—no assets can be repositioned effectively now (T-3 minutes). Successful defense relies purely on the initial allocation made immediately following the MiG-31K lift.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
| Domain | Finding (FACT/Judgment) | Confidence | Operational Impact |
|---|
| External Strategic IO | TASS reports minimal progress in US-Ukraine security meeting (0157Z), citing Bloomberg. | HIGH (Fact/Judgment) | Directly reinforces the RF IO narrative of 'Western Abandonment' and disagreements (D-S belief: 0.434). Aimed at demoralizing high command and strategic decision-makers during the kinetic synchronization window. |
| Internal Fixation | Confirmed kinetic attacks in Kyiv region (0147Z, 0150Z) and new UAV vectors (Poltava). | HIGH (Judgment) | Maintains high psychological fatigue and confirms the RF strategy of inflicting minor damage in the rear to paralyze AD consolidation for the major strike. |
| Domestic Cohesion | The existing IO crisis (Skorod/Odesa) combined with external pessimism reports creates maximum friction for the National Command Authority (NCA) during the MLD decision phase. | HIGH (Judgment) | Potential delay in authorizing decisive action due to internal political instability. |
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
Successful Synchronization and Limited Penetration.
- 060200Z - 060230Z: Cruise Missile Impact. Partial degradation of Zolotonosha rail capacity, confirming the isolation of the Southern Front from heavy Class V (Ammunition) resupply.
- 060230Z - 060330Z: MLD Initiation. 37th GMRB utilizes "Kuryer" UGVs to breach Phase Line ALPHA. Delayed or stalled BRAVO-BLOCK reserve forces UAF line battalions to withdraw or be encircled.
- Exploitation: RF utilizes heavy fires to deny consolidation of UAF second echelon, leveraging the logistical choke achieved at Zolotonosha.
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
Catastrophic Reserve Attrition and Operational Collapse.
A successful, debilitating saturation strike on the Zolotonosha nexus (total severing of rail/road) combined with the confirmed stalled status (due to command failure or "Mangas" impedance) of the BRAVO-BLOCK.
- RF long-range fires (e.g., TOS-1A, heavy artillery) target the immobilized BRAVO-BLOCK staging area concurrent with the MLD launch (060230Z).
- The 37th GMRB achieves a deep operational penetration, effectively isolating the Zaporizhzhia sector and threatening to turn the entire Southern front flank.
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL)
| Event | Estimated Time Frame | Decision Point | Status Update |
|---|
| P4: Cruise Missile Impact Window | 060200Z - 060230Z (T-3 Minutes) | IADS EXECUTION CHECK: Final confirmation that target allocation is 100% focused on Zolotonosha/Dnipro corridor. | IMMINENT: T-3 |
| RF Tactical Exploitation Initiation (Stepnohorsk MLD) | 060230Z - 060300Z | Fires Confirmation: Sustained counter-battery fires targeting 37th GMRB staging must be confirmed to run continuously through impact window. | IMMINENT |
| P2: BRAVO-BLOCK Movement Confirmation | 060145Z (PASSED) | J3 Override (Mandatory): Immediate order must be transmitted to disperse/harden the unit due to the pending strike and failure to meet the maneuver window. ACT NOW. | FAILURE TO EXECUTE |
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
| Priority | Gap Description | Required Action | Confidence Impact |
|---|
| P1 (CRITICAL - MANEUVER EXECUTION) | BRAVO-BLOCK Real-Time Status/Response. Has the unit dispersed following the missed 060145Z decision point? | IMMEDIATE ISR/HUMINT: Continuous UAV coverage focusing specifically on the staging area (NLT 060205Z). | HIGH |
| P2 (CRITICAL - AIR DEFENSE) | Zolotonosha AD Effectiveness (First 3 Missiles). Assessment of initial impacts/interceptions. | IMMEDIATE ISR/SIGINT: Feedback required on missile count, trajectory, and IADS success rate. | HIGH |
| P3 (FIXATION/EW) | Poltava UAV Intent. Specific targets for the new Sumy/Poltava vector (e.g., fuel depots in Poltava city, major rail interchange). | URGENT ISR/EW: Re-tasking available ISR assets. Jamming efforts must be initiated immediately on this new vector C2 frequency. | MEDIUM |
7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS
7.1. Operational Maneuver and Fires (J3 / G2)
ACTION: IMMEDIATE HARDENING OR DISPERSAL OF RESERVES.
- Directive to BRAVO-BLOCK Commander: Since the 060145Z decision point was missed and the strike window opens in T-3 minutes, the J3 must immediately issue a directive: If not moving, the unit must disperse and harden/entrench in place immediately. Assume tactical mobility is now lost for the next 4 hours. Survivability is the priority.
- Maximum Counter-Battery: Maintain or increase maximum saturation fires on the 37th GMRB assembly areas to disrupt their coordination during the logistical strike window (060200Z - 060300Z).
7.2. Air Defense Operations (J3 / AD Command)
ACTION: ABSOLUTE COMMITMENT TO ZOLOTONOSHA.
- IADS Final Confirmation: Command must confirm IADS assets are already positioned and prepared to engage the high-volume cruise missile target set at Zolotonosha/Dnipro. No further adjustments are possible.
- Accept Risk on Fixation: Accept the risk of further minor civilian or infrastructure damage from the confirmed Kyiv/Poltava UAV vectors. Diverting resources now ensures Zolotonosha logistical collapse.
7.3. Electronic Warfare (J6)
- Prioritize Reserve C2 Protection: Dedicate primary EW assets to protecting the BRAVO-BLOCK area (regardless of movement status) to deny RF targeting (i.e., radar lock) and deny "Mangas" C2 (if the unit attempts to move).
- Jam Poltava Vector: Immediately begin high-power jamming against confirmed RF UAS C2 frequencies along the new Sumy/Poltava vector.
//END OF JISR//
