JOINT INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (JISR) 25-12-06/100
TIME: 060135Z DEC 2025
SUBJECT: MLD KINETIC SYNCHRONIZATION IMMINENT (T-25 MINUTES). AD FIXATION DISSIPATING, BUT LOGISTICAL STRIKE NOW UNCONTESTED. BRAVO-BLOCK STATUS REMAINS CRITICAL UNKNOWN.
PRIORITY: P1 CONFIRM AD RE-TASKING SOUTH/EAST (CRITICAL); P2 BRAVO-BLOCK MOVEMENT STATUS (IMMEDIATE).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
The operational focus remains bifurcated: the imminent Main Effort Land Drive (MLD) at Stepnohorsk and the critical Deep Strike Denial required at the Zolotonosha logistical hub. RF is successfully executing the transition phase between ballistic/high-speed fixation and strategic cruise missile saturation.
- P2 Maneuver Axis (Stepnohorsk): All indicators confirm the 37th GMRB remains poised for launch NLT 060300Z. The window for UAF reserve insertion (BRAVO-BLOCK) is practically closed due to time constraints and the unaddressed "Mangas" mine threat.
- P4 Deep Strike Sector (Central/South): The incoming cruise missile volley (7x bomber payload) is the immediate kinetic threat. Estimated Impact Time (EIT) remains 060200Z - 060230Z. Targeting focuses explicitly on Zolotonosha rail infrastructure and Dnipro-area chokepoints.
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Conditions are clear across the Southern and Central AORs, favorable for long-range ISR and precision strikes by RF. No significant weather degradation of ground movement expected.
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- RF Strategic Air Readiness: Confirmed 7x Tu-95/Tu-160 assets approaching launch zones. The pre-strike high-speed fixation threat (MiG-31K) has been confirmed lifted (0104Z), simplifying RF kinetic synchronization.
- RF Tactical Ground Readiness: Full readiness for MLD.
- RF UAS Activity: Despite general alert cancellations, tactical and operational-level UAS activity persists:
- 2x UAVs reported near Ukrainka/Kyiv (0117Z) maintaining Northern fixation.
- UAF Air Force confirms new low-level UAS group in Vinnytsia region (Bershad/Kryzhopil), tracking North-West (0124Z). This aims to harass/target UAF reinforcement/supply lines further west than previously observed, forcing wider dispersal of valuable SHORAD.
- P2 Reserve Status (BRAVO-BLOCK): CRITICAL UNCONFIRMED STATUS. The most recent JISR (060130Z) designated this as a critical failure point. We are now 5 minutes past that assessment, and movement confirmation remains absent. This is an active operational vulnerability.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Enemy Intent: Achieve logistical paralysis via mass missile strike (P4) precisely as ground assault (P2) begins, exploiting the known operational inertia of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve.
- Kinetic Execution Refinement: The enemy successfully transitioned out of the MiG-31K high-speed profile and into the cruise missile phase. This tactical shift is deliberate and designed to minimize UAF reaction time for IADS re-tasking.
- Expanded Fixation Effort: The UAF confirmation of UAV activity shifting West/NW into Vinnytsia Oblast indicates RF is not solely focused on Kyiv fixation. This expanded UAS vector targets strategic depth, attempting to slow any second-echelon Western reserves and confirm the state of UAF logistics further behind the front.
- Integrated Strike Timing: The MLD (060200Z - 060300Z) is planned to commence immediately upon or shortly after the cruise missile impacts, maximizing the shock and confusion across the UAF C4ISR network.
2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
RF strategic strike capacity is robust (7x bombers). The critical RF logistics goal for the next 30 minutes is the destruction of UAF rear area sustainment at Zolotonosha. Failure to launch the MLD due to the UAF destruction of the Temryuk fuel depot is assessed as LOW risk for the immediate window.
2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
RF C2 demonstrates superior multi-domain integration, successfully pivoting from one phase of the deep strike campaign to the next while maintaining persistent fixation efforts across wide geographical areas.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
While IADS assets have received a momentary reprieve from the high-speed alert, the effectiveness of the Southern defense hinges entirely on the unconfirmed status of the BRAVO-BLOCK. If the unit is still stalled or in staging areas:
- Vulnerability: It is now critically exposed to both the pending cruise missile impact and the continued "Mangas" aerial mining operations.
- Maneuver Constraint: The lack of confirmed movement means UAF front-line forces (Phase Line ALPHA) must prepare for a prolonged defense without counter-attack potential.
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- Successes: Successful neutralizing/de-escalation of the MiG-31K kinetic fixation.
- Setbacks: The operational delay of the BRAVO-BLOCK remains the most severe operational setback. We are now approaching a point of no return for reserve maneuver capability.
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CRITICAL)
The AD resource allocation constraint is now entirely focused on the South/East. Any delay in moving AD assets (previously northern-focused) toward Zolotonosha due to bureaucratic friction or residual UAV fixation (Kyiv/Vinnytsia) guarantees the success of the RF logistical strike.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
| Domain | Finding (FACT/Judgment) | Confidence | Operational Impact |
|---|
| P1: External Strategic IO | TASS promoting Pavel Durov’s statement criticizing the EU over freedom of speech/censorship (0123Z). | HIGH (Fact) | Low immediate operational impact; serves RF strategic IO goal of undermining Western regulatory legitimacy and distracting from kinetic operations. |
| P2: Internal Fixation | Residual UAV reports (Ukrainka, Vinnytsia) coupled with air raid alert lifting. | HIGH (Judgment) | Maintains psychological fatigue and prevents UAF AD C2 from consolidating resources fully, forcing retention of assets in Western/Northern sectors. |
| P3: Morale | General air alert lift (0107Z) provides short-term civilian relief but is likely only the pause before the strategic strike. | HIGH (Judgment) | Short window for AD crews to rest/reposition; high risk of complacency prior to main strike. |
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
Synchronized Strike and Breakthrough.
The enemy is executing the timeline projected in JISR 099 with high precision.
- 060200Z - 060230Z: Cruise Missile Impact. Successful saturation strike on Zolotonosha rail assets due to insufficient AD density or late repositioning.
- 060230Z - 060330Z: MLD Initiation. 37th GMRB initiates mechanized assault, meeting little organized resistance from Phase Line ALPHA forces whose Class V (Ammunition) supply chain is severed or degraded.
- Exploitation: RF utilizes "Mangas" or heavy fires to engage and attrite the stalled or delayed BRAVO-BLOCK reserve. RF VDV exploits the breach toward operational depth.
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
Logistical Collapse and Strategic Isolation.
A successful, debilitating strike on Zolotonosha combined with continued BRAVO-BLOCK inertia leads to a rapid collapse of Phase Line ALPHA. The 37th GMRB achieves operational freedom of maneuver, threatening to isolate the entire Southern defense sector (Zaporizhzhia) from Central Ukrainian support.
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL)
| Event | Estimated Time Frame | Decision Point | Status Update |
|---|
| P4: Cruise Missile Impact Window | 060200Z - 060230Z (T-25 Minutes) | IADS EXECUTION CHECK: Confirmation that all required mobile AD assets are en route/in position for the Zolotonosha defense. | CRITICAL: T-25 |
| RF Tactical Exploitation Initiation (Stepnohorsk MLD) | 060230Z - 060300Z (T-60 Minutes) | Fires Confirmation: Maximum counter-battery and saturation fires (HIMARS, MLRS) must be confirmed targeting 37th GMRB pre-launch staging. | IMMINENT |
| P2: BRAVO-BLOCK Movement Confirmation | NOW (060135Z) | J3 Override (Mandatory): If movement is not confirmed by 060145Z, command must shift the unit's posture to immediate dispersal and hardening to mitigate the pending cruise missile threat. | ACTIVE FAILURE POINT |
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
| Priority | Gap Description | Required Action | Confidence Impact |
|---|
| P1 (CRITICAL - MANEUVER EXECUTION) | BRAVO-BLOCK Real-Time Status. Movement confirmation (moving/stalled/dispersed) and current MCLC/Engineer lead status. | IMMEDIATE ISR/HUMINT: Continuous UAV/HUMINT relay on reserve movement path. Use electronic measures to confirm vehicle counts/movement, if secure comms are unavailable. | HIGH |
| P2 (CRITICAL - AIR DEFENSE) | 7x Strategic Bomber Primary Targeting. Confirmation of final trajectory shift (North/South of Zolotonosha) for AD vectoring refinement. | IMMEDIATE SIGINT/ELINT: Dedicated monitoring of missile telemetry and RF C2. | HIGH |
| P3 (FIXATION/EW) | Vinnytsia UAS Purpose. Specific target types (POL, rail, reserves) and FOLs of the newly detected Vinnytsia NW-vector UAV group. | URGENT ISR/EW: Re-tasking available Western/Central ISR to track and identify threat intent. | MEDIUM |
7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS
7.1. Operational Maneuver and Fires (J3 / G2)
ACTION: PIVOT FROM COUNTER-ATTACK TO SURVIVAL/DISPERSAL (IF STALLED).
- Immediate Status Check: J3 must receive confirmation from the ground commander on BRAVO-BLOCK movement (Y/N) NLT 060145Z.
- Stalled Contingency (If N): If the reserve is confirmed stalled or immobilized by "Mangas," the commander must immediately authorize dispersion into smaller, hardened platoon/company positions to mitigate the inevitable cruise missile saturation strike (T-25 minutes). Accept the loss of immediate counter-attack capacity to ensure force survival.
- Max Fires: Continue sustained saturation counter-battery fire against the 37th GMRB staging areas (confirmed coordinates). The goal is maximal disruption during the enemy's kinetic synchronization window (060200Z).
7.2. Air Defense Operations (J3 / AD Command)
ACTION: MAXIMIZE ZOLOTONOSHA DEFENSE; IGNORE RESIDUAL FIXATION.
- IADS Commitment (Mandatory): Confirm that the temporary lift of the MiG-31K alert has resulted in the physical redirection of all mobile AD assets to reinforce the Zolotonosha/Dnipro logistical corridor. This is the center of gravity.
- Prioritization: Command must accept the risk of residual UAVs (Kyiv/Vinnytsia) achieving minor local damage. The defense of Zolotonosha takes absolute priority over local UAS denial.
7.3. Electronic Warfare (J6)
- Focused EW Box: Dedicate all high-power EW platforms to generate an intense, continuous jamming box specifically along the expected AoA of the BRAVO-BLOCK (if moving) or its immediate dispersal areas (if stalled). This is necessary to deny "Mangas" C2 and prevent targeted fire acquisition during the kinetic saturation.
//END OF JISR//
