JOINT INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (JISR) 25-12-06/099
TIME: 060130Z DEC 2025
SUBJECT: MLD LAUNCH WINDOW NOW OPEN. MIG-31K FIXATION LIFTED. CRUISE MISSILE WAVE PENDING (T-45 MINUTES). BRAVO-BLOCK STATUS REMAINS UNCONFIRMED (CRITICAL).
PRIORITY: P1 IMMEDIATE BRAVO-BLOCK COMMITMENT (STRATEGIC); P2 IADS RE-TASKING SOUTH/EAST (CRITICAL).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
The enemy has successfully executed the initial phases of operational preparation: deep strike denial (Kryvyi Rih/Fastiv) and Northern fixation (Kyiv). The resulting window for the Main Effort Land Drive (MLD) at Stepnohorsk is currently open and assessed as imminent.
- P2 Maneuver Axis (Stepnohorsk): The 37th GMRB is postured for launch NLT 060300Z. Confirmed VDV elements continue high-tempo reconnaissance and harassment operations, evidenced by the reported raid on Karantynnyy Island (0103Z).
- P4 Deep Strike Sector (Central/South): The kinetic focus is rapidly shifting from the immediate ballistic impact assessment (Kryvyi Rih) to preparing for the follow-on cruise missile wave. The threat remains highest for the Zolotonosha/Dnipro logistical chokepoints.
- P1 Fixation Sector (Kyiv/Vinnytsia): The primary high-speed fixation threat has temporarily ceased (MiG-31K alert lifted 0100Z). However, adversary UAV operations are confirmed to be expanding their vectors westward (Odesa to Vinnytsia, 0035Z) while maintaining pressure on the NW Kyiv axis (0045Z). This sustains cognitive disruption across a wider AOR.
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Clear conditions remain across the Southern and Central operational areas, favoring continued UAS operations and long-range fire coordination for the MLD.
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- RF Strategic Air Readiness: Seven (7) Tu-95/Tu-160 strategic bombers are approaching launch zones. Estimated impact time (EIT) for the cruise missile volley is 060200Z.
- RF Tactical Ground Readiness: High. The MLD is set. The greatest threat remains the synchronization of the cruise missile impact, the ground assault, and the unaddressed "Mangas" aerial mining threat that blocks UAF reinforcement AoAs.
- P2 Reserve Status (BRAVO-BLOCK): CRITICAL FAILURE TO CONFIRM MOVEMENT. Despite the previous JISR directive (NLT 060045Z), there is no confirmation that the operational reserve has commenced movement with MCLC/Engineer lead. This delay places Phase Line ALPHA forces in an untenable position against the imminent MLD.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Enemy Intent: Exploit the narrow window between UAF deep strike reaction (Kryvyi Rih) and reinforcement capacity (BRAVO-BLOCK failure) to achieve a rapid operational breach at Stepnohorsk NLT 060300Z.
- Kinetic Synchronization: The temporary cessation of the MiG-31K threat allows RF C2 to focus on integrating the 7x bomber strike timing with the 37th GMRB ground launch. The purpose of this integrated strike is to achieve C2/logistical paralysis in the Southern AOR precisely when the MLD requires minimum resistance.
- VDV Role: The confirmed VDV activity (Karantynnyy Island) and sustained UAS fixation efforts indicate that RF is executing a coordinated pressure campaign to pin UAF assets and prevent any ad hoc shifting of reserves toward Stepnohorsk before the main assault.
- Hybrid Warfare: RF IO is actively promoting narratives targeting international oversight (ICC), likely in anticipation of future war crimes accusations stemming from the MLD or deep strikes.
2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
RF demonstrates consistent strategic strike capacity. While the UAF destruction of the Temryuk fuel depot will degrade RF Southern Group of Forces (SGF) mobility in the medium term (48-72 hours), the immediate MLD launch is fully sustained. The RF logistical priority for the next hour is ensuring the kinetic denial of UAF rear logistics (Zolotonosha).
2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
RF C2 is demonstrating superior multi-domain integration, successfully transitioning from ballistic preparation to cruise missile saturation, while maintaining ground force readiness despite UAF counter-targeting (Temryuk).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
Air Defense assets remain responsive (successful Kyiv intercept, alert clearance). However, the failure to secure and initiate the critical reserve movement means UAF operational readiness is critically low in the Stepnohorsk AOR.
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- Successes: MiG-31K kinetic fixation effort appears neutralized (alert lifted). UAF strategic communications continue high-level diplomatic engagement (Umerov/Witkoff).
- Setbacks: Confirmed damage to energy/logistics assets. CRITICAL SETBACK: BRAVO-BLOCK reserve movement remains stalled or unconfirmed. This operational inertia jeopardizes the entire Southern front defense plan.
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CRITICAL)
The time available to secure the movement of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve is effectively zero. Every minute of delay directly increases the risk of the force being fixed by "Mangas" aerial minefields or targeted by the pending cruise missile wave while in staging areas. The AD constraint remains acute, requiring decisive re-tasking away from the now-clear Northern sector toward the Southern logistical assets.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
| Domain | Finding (FACT/Judgment) | Confidence | Operational Impact |
|---|
| P1: Diplomatic Signaling | Umerov/Witkoff meeting concludes; signaling potential for "progress" contingent on Russian de-escalation. | HIGH (Fact/Judgment) | UAF attempting to anchor future security assurances during a kinetic crisis; RF likely dismisses this as low-impact theater. |
| P2: ICC Counter-Narrative | RF channels released IO regarding alleged ICC staff funding Central African terrorist groups. | HIGH (Fact) | Pre-emptive defense against potential international legal pressure; intended to undermine the legitimacy of future war crimes tribunals. |
| P3: Fixation Maintenance | Confirmed UAV activity shifting course toward Vinnytsia and maintaining pressure on Kyiv NW axis. | HIGH (Judgment) | Successfully sustains C2 distraction and forces a wider dispersal of AD assets, lowering AD density over critical Southern logistics. |
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
Immediate MLD Exploiting Kinetic Denial and Reserve Paralysis.
- Cruise Missile Strike (T+30 min): The 7x Strategic Bombers deliver a high-density volley focused on Zolotonosha rail infrastructure and secondary power distribution points (Dnipro bridges, remaining Kryvyi Rih infrastructure).
- MLD Initiation (T+90 min): RF 37th GMRB initiates the mechanized assault at Stepnohorsk.
- Maneuver Fixation: The 37th GMRB achieves initial breakthroughs, while "Mangas" UAS activity focuses on sealing off the non-moving/stalled BRAVO-BLOCK AoA. RF fires assets (TOS-1A, heavy artillery) engage the fixed UAF reserve while it attempts de-mining, leading to high attrition.
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
Operational Isolation and Deep Breach.
- Decisive Logistical Strike: The incoming cruise missile wave successfully neutralizes the Zolotonosha logistical hub, functionally severing Class V (Ammunition) resupply to Phase Line ALPHA forces in the Stepnohorsk area.
- BRAVO-BLOCK Attrition/Route Denial: The BRAVO-BLOCK, attempting delayed movement, is fully paralyzed by aerial minefields and forced to stop due to EW/C3 denial.
- RF Operational Breakthrough: The 37th GMRB achieves a rapid, deep penetration through Phase Line ALPHA, bypassing the immobilized UAF forces and pushing toward the vulnerable rear areas of Zaporizhzhia, aiming to cut off defenders before they can reorganize.
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL)
| Event | Estimated Time Frame | Decision Point | Status Update |
|---|
| P4: Cruise Missile Impact Window | 060150Z - 060230Z | IADS EXECUTION: All AD assets previously assigned to Northern fixation must be repositioned/primed to engage inbound low-altitude threats to Zolotonosha/Dnipro. | IMMINENT (T-30 Minutes) |
| RF Tactical Exploitation Initiation (Stepnohorsk MLD) | 060200Z - 060300Z | Maximum Fires Directive: Execute saturation counter-battery fire on 37th GMRB staging areas immediately. Attempting to delay the MLD is paramount. | IMMINENT |
| P2: BRAVO-BLOCK Movement Confirmation | NOW (060130Z) | J3 Override (Mandatory): J3 must confirm physical movement and engineer-led deployment, even if assets are below ideal readiness. Accept the risk; inaction guarantees failure. | CRITICAL FAILURE POINT |
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
| Priority | Gap Description | Required Action | Confidence Impact |
|---|
| P1 (CRITICAL - MANEUVER EXECUTION) | BRAVO-BLOCK Live Movement Status. The lack of confirmation is now an operational failure signal. We must confirm if the unit is physically moving, stalled, or fixed. | IMMEDIATE ISR/HUMINT: Continuous UAV/HUMINT relay on P2 staging and AoA movement path. | HIGH |
| P2 (CRITICAL - AIR DEFENSE) | 7x Strategic Bomber Primary Targeting. Refined coordinates for the highest density impact zone (Zolotonosha rail vs. Dnipro bridges). | IMMEDIATE SIGINT/ELINT: Dedicated monitoring of RF long-range aviation C2 and missile telemetry. | HIGH |
| P3 (TECH/EW) | "Mangas" C2 Frequencies and FOLs. Continued requirement to identify the operational frequencies of the aerial mining UAS system to protect moving reserves. | URGENT EW/SIGINT: Dedicated EW sweep along the reserve corridor. | MEDIUM |
7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS
7.1. Operational Maneuver and Fires (J3 / G2)
ACTION: EXECUTE "MOVE OR DIE" ORDER; FIRE FOR EFFECT.
- MANDATORY RESERVE COMMITMENT: Issue the Directive "BRAVO-BLOCK: MOVE IMMEDIATE." This order must prioritize speed and engineer lead (MCLC/Rollers) over all other combat readiness parameters. The window to insert a maneuvering reserve has almost closed. Movement must be secured by continuous EW jamming.
- IMMEDIATE COUNTER-MLD FIRES: Reconfirm and initiate maximum sustained saturation counter-battery fire (HIMARS, heavy MLRS) against the confirmed final assembly areas of the 37th GMRB. Focus on disrupting the launch cadence between 060130Z and 060230Z to maximize confusion during the cruise missile impact window.
- Phase Line ALPHA Hardening: Instruct Phase Line ALPHA commanders to prepare for a deep, unsupported defense and initiate all pre-planned denial operations immediately.
7.2. Air Defense Operations (J3 / AD Command)
ACTION: FULL RE-TASKING SOUTH/EAST; PROTECT ZOLOTONOSHA.
- IADS Repositioning: Exploit the temporary lift of the MiG-31K alert. Immediately authorize the full repositioning of mobile AD assets (including those previously holding northern fixation) to establish a layered defense around the Zolotonosha logistical node and key secondary rail infrastructure near Dnipro.
- Cruise Missile Protocols: Implement maximum Readiness State 1 (RS-1) for all remaining IADS assets in the Central and Southern AORs. Focus radar scanning profiles on low-altitude approaches from the south/east, anticipating the main bomber strike.
7.3. Electronic Warfare (J6)
- Dedicated Reserve Corridor Jamming: Assign all available high-power EW platforms to generate continuous, high-density jamming specifically targeting "Mangas" C2 frequencies along the designated AoA for the BRAVO-BLOCK. This must be the highest EW priority for the next two hours.
//END OF JISR//
