JOINT INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (JISR) 25-12-06/098
TIME: 060035Z DEC 2025
SUBJECT: KRYVYI RIH KINETIC SUCCESS CONFIRMED. RF PREPARING MAJOR CRUISE MISSILE WAVE (7X TU-95/160). STEPNOHORSK MLD WINDOW REMAINS CRITICAL.
PRIORITY: P1 STEPNOHORSK RESERVE MOVEMENT (CRITICAL); P2 IADS RE-ALLOCATION/PROTECT KRYVYI RIH POWER ASSETS (CRITICAL).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
The operational environment is characterized by the simultaneous kinetic attack on strategic depth assets (Fastiv, Kryvyi Rih) and the active fixation efforts (Kyiv) designed to synchronize the imminent Main Effort Land Drive (MLD) at Stepnohorsk.
- P4 Deep Strike Sector (Kryvyi Rih): Confirmed ballistic strike (6+ missiles) hit the Thermal Power Plant (TEЦ) in Kryvyi Rih (0011Z). This severely degrades the energy network supporting the Southern Operational Area and confirms RF intent to attack the logistical depth axis.
- P1 Central Logistical Sector (Fastiv): Ukrainian Railways (UkrZaliznytsia) confirmed route changes due to damage to rail infrastructure (0022Z). RF continues to amplify BDA images (0016Z). Logistical throughput from the West is impaired.
- P2 Maneuver Axis (Stepnohorsk): The period of maximum UAF C2 distraction and logistical vulnerability (Fastiv/Kryvyi Rih strikes) is now coinciding with the optimal MLD window (NLT 060300Z).
- P1 Fixation Sector (Kyiv): Two (2) MiG-31K launches confirmed (0023Z/0025Z). High-speed target tracked toward Kyiv/Zhytomyr, with subsequent reports of a successful intercept ("минус по нему") near Hostomel/Vyshhorod (0031Z). This confirms sustained kinetic harassment to fix Northern IADS assets.
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Clear conditions persist, enabling continued high-tempo UAS/long-range strike activity.
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- RF Strategic Air Readiness: Seven (7) Tu-95/Tu-160 strategic bombers are airborne and moving toward launch zones (0004Z). This represents a high-probability cruise missile wave targeting depth infrastructure NLT T+90 minutes.
- IADS Status: Highly stressed and geographically dispersed. Successful intercept near Kyiv requires immediate re-inventory and standby for the impending cruise missile threat. IADS assets must be immediately re-tasked to protect newly struck infrastructure (Kryvyi Rih TPC) to prevent catastrophic secondary damage.
- P2 Reserve Status (BRAVO-BLOCK): UNCONFIRMED. Despite the critical delay, no confirmation of engineer-led movement of the reserve force has been received. This remains the single greatest vulnerability.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Enemy Intent: Complete the operational isolation of the Southern Front by inflicting critical energy and logistical denial via sustained deep strike, synchronizing this effect with the launch of the 37th GMRB MLD.
- Ballistic Focus Shift: The shift from targeting Zolotonosha (pure logistics) to Kryvyi Rih TPC (energy/logistics support) is a calculated move to maximize civilian/military disruption and prevent the rapid staging of heavy reserves.
- Cruise Missile Preparation: The confirmed deployment of 7x Strategic Bombers validates the intent to maintain the pressure and ensure follow-on strikes, likely targeting critical GLOCs or IADS nodes that survived the initial ballistic phase.
- Counter-Escalation Messaging: RF social media amplification of the Fastiv strike and simultaneous reporting on alleged UAF UAV strikes into Ryazan (0005Z) aims to normalize deep strikes in the international domain while maximizing domestic shock value.
2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
RF demonstrates sustained capacity for high-volume kinetic strikes and the ability to rapidly generate the next wave (7x strategic bombers). The operational success at Fastiv significantly mitigates UAF's prior success against the Temryuk fuel depot by denying UAF resupply.
2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
RF C2 remains highly effective, executing dynamic re-targeting and coordinating fixed-wing assets (MiG-31K, strategic bombers) with ground maneuver preparations (37th GMRB). This multi-domain synchronization is the defining threat characteristic.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
UAF Air Defense is performing effectively against high-speed threats (reported intercept near Kyiv). However, the overall posture remains reactive and defensive. The focus on immediate threats (Kyiv/Kryvyi Rih) directly compromises readiness in the critical Stepnohorsk ground theater.
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
- Successes: Apparent successful engagement of Kh-47M2/Ballistic threat near Kyiv (0031Z). Confirmed UAF strike causing BDA in Ryazan/Ryazan Oblast (0005Z/0018Z).
- Setbacks: Confirmed logistical disruption at Fastiv (rail changes). Confirmed damage to critical energy infrastructure at Kryvyi Rih TPC. CRITICAL FAILURE TO LAUNCH BRAVO-BLOCK RESERVE.
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CRITICAL)
The IADS allocation challenge is acute: the arrival of 7x bombers necessitates hardening defenses across the entire depth area, but the priority must be protecting Southern GLOCs (Kryvyi Rih sector). The failure to execute the BRAVO-BLOCK movement plan (NLT 060030Z) now means that Phase Line ALPHA faces the imminent MLD without confirmed reinforcements.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
| Domain | Finding (FACT/Judgment) | Confidence | Operational Impact |
|---|
| P1: Logistical BDA Amplification | RF channels released BDA of the Fastiv rail station fire, confirming logistical success and targeting the psychological impact of infrastructure loss. | HIGH (Fact) | Reinforces RF narrative of decisive kinetic action; maximizes psychological strain on population and military logistics staff. |
| P4: Counter-Escalation | Confirmed UAF UAV attack on Ryazan, leading to fires and official acknowledgement by the Russian Governor. | HIGH (Fact) | Maintains the UAF narrative of being able to strike deep, but requires internal resources (IO/STRATCOM) to manage international/domestic reaction. |
| P3: Fixation Maintenance | Immediate re-launch of MiG-31K following initial ‘all clear’ demonstrates intent to keep UAF C2 hyper-focused on the North. | HIGH (Judgment) | Successfully diverts cognitive resources away from the primary ground effort at Stepnohorsk. |
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
Synchronized MLD and Follow-on Logistical/Energy Denial Wave.
- MLD Initiation: RF 37th GMRB initiates the mechanized assault at Stepnohorsk NLT 060300Z. They capitalize on the delayed/fixed BRAVO-BLOCK reserves and UAF C2 disruption.
- Cruise Missile Strike: The 7x Tu-95/Tu-160 launch a high-density volley, targeting key logistical chokepoints that survived the initial ballistic attacks (e.g., secondary rail bridges near Dnipro, Zolotonosha POL/Rail junction, or IADS sites protecting those areas).
- Exploitation: RF VDV elements expand control of the Stepnohorsk urban area, enabling the 37th GMRB to bypass initial UAF defenses, pushing for a Phase Line BRAVO breach.
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
Logistical and Maneuver Collapse.
- Decisive Cruise Missile Strike: A major wave of cruise missiles achieves a successful strike against a high-value UAF regional military logistics headquarters or a critical remaining C2 node in the Southern AOR.
- BRAVO-BLOCK Attrition: The delayed BRAVO-BLOCK, attempting to move without sufficient engineer lead, suffers significant attrition from "Mangas"-deployed minefields and is fixed by RF long-range fires (TOS-1A, conventional artillery).
- Operational Breach: The 37th GMRB achieves a rapid, deep breach through the weakened UAF Phase Line ALPHA defenses, exploiting the lack of maneuver reserves, leading to a critical threat to Zaporizhzhia's immediate rear.
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL)
| Event | Estimated Time Frame | Decision Point | Status Update |
|---|
| P2: BRAVO-BLOCK Movement Confirmation | NLT 060045Z | J3 Override: J3/G2 must confirm MCLC is leading movement immediately. If MCLC is unavailable, move with dedicated EW screen and high-risk clearance teams. MOVEMENT MUST OCCUR NOW. | IMMINENT FAILURE POINT |
| P4: Cruise Missile Impact Window | 060130Z - 060230Z | IADS Re-Tasking: Execute pre-approved dispersal and layered defense plan focused on Kryvyi Rih/Dnipro/Zolotonosha sectors immediately following Kyiv intercept. | IMMINENT |
| RF Tactical Exploitation Initiation (Stepnohorsk MLD) | 0600Z - 060300Z | Counter-Battery Saturation: Initiate maximum counter-battery fire against RF 37th GMRB staging areas (as previously recommended). | IMMINENT |
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
| Priority | Gap Description | Required Action | Confidence Impact |
|---|
| P1 (CRITICAL - MANEUVER EXECUTION) | BRAVO-BLOCK Live Movement Status. Confirmation of unit movement, clearance progress, and engineer asset utilization status. | IMMEDIATE ISR/HUMINT: Continuous UAV/HUMINT relay on P2 staging and AoA movement path. | HIGH |
| P2 (CRITICAL - AIR DEFENSE) | 7x Strategic Bomber Launch Vectors/Targeting. Estimation of the primary target set for the impending cruise missile wave (Dnipro Bridges, Zolotonosha, or secondary Kryvyi Rih targets). | IMMEDIATE SIGINT/ELINT: Dedicated monitoring of RF long-range aviation C2 communications and missile telemetry signatures. | HIGH |
| P3 (TECH/EW) | "Mangas" C2 Frequencies and FOLs. Continued requirement to identify the operational frequencies of the aerial mining UAS system. | URGENT EW/SIGINT: Dedicated EW sweep along the P2 Stepnohorsk rear area and reserve corridor. | MEDIUM |
7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS
7.1. Operational Maneuver and Fires (J3 / G2)
ACTION: COMMIT RESERVES; MAXIMIZE DISRUPTION TO MLD LAUNCH.
- IMMEDIATE MANEUVER COMMITMENT (060035Z): Directive for BRAVO-BLOCK to move immediately. Movement must be led by all available engineer assets (MCLC/Rollers) supported by high-priority EW jamming cover. Delay is no longer permissible; the force must accept the increased risk of movement now to prevent strategic collapse later.
- MLD Pre-emption: Re-task long-range strike assets (HIMARS, heavy artillery) to execute sustained saturation fire on 37th GMRB confirmed final assembly areas and predicted MLD routes NLT 060100Z, aiming for maximum disruption and delay.
- Forward Resupply Prioritization: Execute emergency re-supply prioritization via western rail networks (avoiding Fastiv/Zolotonosha route) to Phase Line ALPHA forces immediately. Prioritize Class V (Ammunition) above all else.
7.2. Air Defense Operations (J3 / AD Command)
ACTION: SHIFT FOCUS SOUTH; PROTECT LOGISTICAL CHOKEPOINTS.
- Kryvyi Rih Hardening: Immediately deploy or re-allocate at least two (2) additional Mobile SHORAD batteries (e.g., Gepard, C-RAM) to protect the remaining critical logistics/rail nodes and TPC contingency infrastructure in the Kryvyi Rih/Zelenodolsk area.
- Cruise Missile Preparation: Implement contingency power-down/dispersal protocols for all high-value fixed assets (radar, HQ) in the Southern/Central regions to mitigate damage from the impending 7x bomber wave.
7.3. Electronic Warfare (J6)
- Reserve Corridor Protection: Dedicate primary, high-power EW assets to generating a continuous, high-density jamming field (broad spectrum) along the entire BRAVO-BLOCK movement corridor to neutralize the "Mangas" aerial mine-laying threat during the critical transit phase.
//END OF JISR//
