Situation Report

JOINT INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (JISR) 25-12-06/097

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TIME: 060004Z DEC 2025 SUBJECT: KINETIC DISPERSAL CONFIRMED: FASTIV BDA SUCCESS. NEW BALLISTIC VECTOR TARGETING KRYVYI RIH. STEPNOHORSK MLD WINDOW CRITICAL. PRIORITY: P1 STEPNOHORSK RESERVE MOVEMENT (CRITICAL); P2 IADS RE-ALLOCATION (URGENT).

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The enemy is maximizing geographical dispersal and strike tempo following the initial kinetic success against the Central Sector (Kyiv/Fastiv). The operational picture is defined by immediate tactical exploitation of the resulting shock.

• P1 SMT Axis (Kyiv/Fastiv): Confirmed BDA footage of the strike at Fastiv (052358Z) indicates the success of the enemy's logistical denial operation in the Central Sector.
• P4 Deep Strike Pivot (Dnipro/Zaporizhzhia/Kryvyi Rih): Following the Central Sector strikes, enemy ballistic focus immediately shifted south, targeting depth areas. High-speed threats confirmed heading toward Dnipro (052341Z), Zaporizhzhia (052359Z), and, critically, Zelenodolsk/Kryvyi Rih (060000Z - 060001Z). This expands the logistical threat matrix beyond Zolotonosha.
• P2 Maneuver Axis (Stepnohorsk): The ground threat remains static but imminent. The period of UAF C2 disruption is currently peaking, creating the optimal operational window for the RF 37th GMRB Main Effort Land Drive (MLD) exploitation.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Clear conditions persist across the operational area, facilitating continued high-precision deep strikes and UAS activity.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: CRITICAL)

The rapid, multi-axis kinetic strikes have critically strained UAF IADS resources and operational focus.

• IADS Status: IADS inventory in the Central Sector is depleted following the Kinzhal/Ballistic intercepts. Mobile SHORAD units are now required to counter the expanded ballistic threat area (Kryvyi Rih).
• P2 Reserve Status: The operational status of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve movement remains UNCONFIRMED. This delay is now compounded by the successful enemy C2 distraction, pushing the unit into an extremely high-risk engagement window.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Enemy Intent: To achieve tactical paralysis in the Southern Operational Area by simultaneously isolating key logistical/staging hubs (Fastiv, Kryvyi Rih) and initiating the MLD at Stepnohorsk.

• Strategic Dispersal: The new ballistic vector toward Kryvyi Rih/Zelenodolsk is a calculated move to prevent UAF staging, reinforce the ground lines of communication (GLOCs) needed for Southern defenses, or degrade air assets utilizing nearby military airfields.
• MLD Synchronization: RF has successfully created the conditions for a high-probability MLD breach: the logistics chain is attacked (Fastiv strike confirmed), UAF reserves are isolated/delayed ("Mangas" mining threat persists), and UAF C2 is distracted by deep kinetic shock.

2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

RF Air/Ballistic assets demonstrate operational fluidity and capacity for follow-on strikes. The successful strike at Fastiv rail is a significant counter-logistical win, immediately affecting NATO Class I/V flow to the South, and partially mitigating the impact of the UAF Temryuk fuel strike.

2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

RF C2 has demonstrated effective post-strike dynamic re-targeting, pivoting from the Kyiv shock phase to the Kryvyi Rih depth-degradation phase within 30 minutes. This level of synchronization indicates high C2 resilience and real-time intelligence usage.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: CRITICAL)

C2 Integrity: While the immediate C2 response functioned, the physical and cognitive stress on the NCA and J3/G2 staff is at a maximum due to the multi-domain assault. Damage assessments at Fastiv and Kyiv C2 nodes remain P1.

Stepnohorsk Readiness: UAF forward units remain exposed to an imminent MLD. The failure to confirm the operational reserve (BRAVO-BLOCK) movement means that Phase Line ALPHA forces are relying solely on organic fires and diminishing Class V supplies (due to Zolotonosha/Fastiv threat) to repel the mechanized assault.

3.2. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CRITICAL)

1. MCLC Deployment: This remains the most critical constraint. The inability to confirm MCLC-led movement of BRAVO-BLOCK by 060004Z indicates severe operational delay or procedural failure against the "Mangas" aerial mining threat.
2. IADS Focus: Constraint is shifting from total inventory to appropriate geographical allocation, necessitating the immediate movement of mobile IADS assets to protect high-value, newly targeted nodes (Kryvyi Rih/Zelenodolsk).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

Immediate MLD Launch Synchronized with Depth Attack.

1. Depth Paralysis: RF maintains the ballistic threat against Kryvyi Rih/Zelenodolsk (0600Z - 060300Z), drawing UAF IADS assets south and west, away from the Stepnohorsk axis.
2. Stepnohorsk MLD Initiation: RF 37th GMRB initiates the mechanized drive NLT 060300Z. They utilize the presumed delay of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve (due to mining and C2 distraction) to achieve a rapid, deep breach past Phase Line ALPHA.
3. Logistical Denial: Secondary cruise missile volley targets Zolotonosha POL/Rail (the previously anticipated primary target), capitalizing on the resource expenditure and reallocation caused by the kinetic pivot.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: MEDIUM)

C2 Decapitation and Maneuver Collapse Leading to Strategic Breach.

1. C2 Failure: A critical secondary strike (Kh-47M2 or high-yield ballistic) achieves a critical hit on a key contingency UAF C2 node, resulting in widespread command failure in the Southern Operational Area.
2. Kryvyi Rih Isolation: The ballistic strikes successfully degrade or destroy a critical GLOC or rail junction near Kryvyi Rih, completely severing the only viable western logistical resupply route for the Southern Front.
3. Forced Collapse: The immobilized BRAVO-BLOCK reserves (stalled by "Mangas" minefields) are fixed by RF long-range fires and bypassed by the 37th GMRB. This leads to the collapse of UAF Phase Line ALPHA and a rapid, deep operational breach toward Zaporizhzhia.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL)

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1. Operational Maneuver and Fires (J3 / G2)

ACTION: EXECUTE CRITICAL STEPNOHORSK MANEUVER; PROTECT DEPTH LOGISTICS.

1. FORCIBLE Reserve Movement (060004Z): Issue a Directive for the immediate launch of BRAVO-BLOCK. If MCLC is not fully operational, utilize any available engineer heavy armor or specialized clearing assets as the lead element. The risk of delay now outweighs the risk of initial attrition from minefields.
2. Dynamic IADS Reallocation: Immediately task all available mobile SHORAD (e.g., Gepard, Avenger/VADS) currently defending second-tier infrastructure in Central Ukraine to high-readiness posture for movement south/west to protect the Kryvyi Rih/Zelenodolsk sector's critical logistics hubs against the new ballistic vector.
3. P2 Suppression: Initiate pre-emptive, high-volume counter-battery and saturation artillery fire onto the confirmed RF 37th GMRB assembly areas NLT 060100Z to disrupt their final MLD launch preparations.

7.2. Strategic Communications (STRATCOM / NCA)

ACTION: MITIGATE STRESS; RE-CENTER NARRATIVE ON GROUND DEFENSE.

1. C2 Resilience Messaging: Rapidly release a statement confirming the NCA is fully operational and AD action was successful against some high-speed threats. Acknowledge impacts but immediately pivot messaging to the coordinated defense against the impending ground assault at Stepnohorsk.
2. Weaponize Accountability: Continue to frame the MP Skorod arrest as proof of the UAF/NCA's "Wartime Accountability" and commitment to fighting corruption, directly undermining RF attempts to exploit internal friction during the kinetic shock.

7.3. Electronic Warfare (J6)

1. Reserve Corridor Protection: Dedicate all available EW systems (Bukovel-AD, Nota, etc.) to establishing a dense jamming corridor along the BRAVO-BLOCK movement path toward Stepnohorsk to neutralize the "Mangas" aerial mining threat during the high-risk movement phase. This is the highest EW priority.

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