Situation Report

JOINT INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (JISR) 25-12-05/096

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TIME: 052345Z DEC 2025 SUBJECT: SMT PHASE SHIFT CONFIRMED: P1 VECTOR RELOCATED TO KYIV/FASTIV AXIS. STEPNOHORSK TACTICAL CRISIS UNRESOLVED. PRIORITY: P1 C2/IADS DAMAGE ASSESSMENT (CRITICAL); P2 STEPNOHORSK MLD COUNTER-MANEUVER (CRITICAL).

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The enemy has executed a decisive shift in the kinetic execution phase (P1/SMT), leveraging predictive intelligence to maximize deception and confusion. The primary strike vector is no longer focused solely on Zolotonosha logistical denial, but rather on C2/Political Decapitation in Kyiv and Secondary Logistics Denial at Fastiv/Dnipro.

• P1 SMT/Ballistic Axis (Kyiv/Fastiv): Confirmed launch of two (2) Kh-47M2 (Kinzhal) and multiple ballistic missiles (originating from Bryansk) targeting the Kyiv/Chernihiv region (052326Z - 052330Z). The enemy achieved kinetic impact at Fastiv (052332Z, confirmed by RF BDA) and explosions in Kyiv (052331Z). This directly contradicts previous analysis predicting Zolotonosha as the primary target for the SMT volley.
• P4 Fixation Axis (Dnipro/Mykolaiv): UAV swarms continue high-tempo operations over Dnipro (multiple explosions confirmed 052313Z, 052333Z) and Mykolaiv, maintaining maximum geographical dispersal of UAF IADS assets.
• Stepnohorsk MLD: Ground maneuver remains static in the P2 area, but the window for reserve movement is closing rapidly as deep battle attention is fixed on the capital.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Clear conditions persist, maintaining optimal operational tempo for high-precision deep strike and UAS activity.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: CRITICAL)

UAF IADS posture in the Central Sector (Kyiv/Fastiv) is critically stressed, engaging high-speed, high-value assets (Kinzhal/Ballistic) immediately following a period of high-volume UAV intercepts (P4).

• IADS Over-Commitment: UAF AD units tasked with defending the capital are now spending critical interceptor inventory. The decision to conserve interceptors for Zolotonosha (JISR 095) proved counter-productive against this enemy deception maneuver.
• P2 Reserve Status: The operational status of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve movement remains unconfirmed. This intelligence gap is now exacerbated by the high-level C2 distraction caused by the kinetic strikes near the NCA location.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Enemy Intent Confirmed as Strategic Deception leading to C2 Degradation, followed by Tactical Exploitation.

• Deception Success: RF successfully utilized information conditioning (intelligence focus on Zolotonosha) to mask the true P1 target set (Kyiv C2, Fastiv Logistics). The simultaneous execution of the MLD threat (Stepnohorsk) provides the perfect window for exploitation.
• Primary Objective: RF is executing a strategic kinetic attempt at C2/political shock and paralysis in the capital region, synchronized to precede the critical MLD exploitation phase at Stepnohorsk. Success in degrading Fastiv rail capacity would severely delay the arrival of NATO equipment moving toward the South.
• MLD Momentum (Stepnohorsk): RF 37th GMRB MLD is now operating against a UAF command distracted and potentially degraded by the deep strikes. RF is likely initiating tactical maneuver immediately, expecting further delay in UAF reserve movement.

2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

RF Strategic Air assets (MiG-31K, ballistic launchers near Bryansk) are fully operational and capable of executing follow-on strikes. The successful strike at Fastiv (if confirmed critical damage) compensates partially for the loss of Temryuk fuel assets by disrupting UAF counter-logistics.

2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

RF C2 demonstrated exceptional synchronization: orchestrating a complex, multi-platform, multi-vector kinetic attack against a predicted target set (Zolotonosha) and then executing a sudden, successful pivot to the actual target set (Kyiv/Fastiv).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: CRITICAL)

C2 Integrity: The immediate requirement is to confirm the integrity of NCA and G-2/J-3 C2 nodes in Kyiv following the Kinzhal/Ballistic impacts. Initial C2 response (KMA confirming AD action, Air Force warnings) suggests immediate response protocols are active, but physical damage assessment is P1. Stepnohorsk Readiness: Posture remains critical. Every minute of delay in the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve movement increases the risk of successful 37th GMRB exploitation. The current distraction may lead to operational neglect of the Stepnohorsk crisis.

3.2. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CRITICAL)

The constraint is now interceptor capacity in the Central/Kyiv region and MCLC availability at Stepnohorsk.

1. IADS Interceptors: Immediate inventory reconciliation needed for Patriot/NASAMS assets expended in the recent volley. Must hold remaining inventory for a potential second wave (SMT/Ballistic) targeting high-value infrastructure or the previously forecasted Zolotonosha axis.
2. MCLC/Engineer Assets: Must be forcibly allocated to the P2 reserve AoA immediately, overriding all procedural delays.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

The enemy is synchronizing kinetic shock with strategic messaging, while friendly IO maintains stability against domestic threats.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

Deep Strike Followed by Stepnohorsk Breach Exploitation.

1. C2 Degradation and Pause: RF assesses BDA on Kyiv/Fastiv. If damage is sufficient, RF conducts a short pause (3-6 hours) to allow the kinetic shock to degrade UAF decision-making regarding reserves.
2. Stepnohorsk Exploitation: RF 37th GMRB utilizes the distraction and the ongoing delay of BRAVO-BLOCK reserves (P2) to bypass or destroy UAF forward positions (Phase Line ALPHA) using the "breach-and-block" tactic (Kuryer/Mangas). Exploitation begins NLT 060300Z.
3. Secondary Strike: RF launches a cruise missile volley (Kalibr/Kh-101/Kh-555) targeting the previously exposed Zolotonosha POL/Rail junction, capitalizing on the Central IADS resource depletion.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: MEDIUM)

C2 Decapitation and Maneuver Collapse.

1. NCA/C2 Critical Hit: The P1 strike achieves a critical hit on a primary UAF C2 node in Kyiv, causing strategic decision paralysis.
2. Fastiv Rail Severed: Multiple confirmed hits on the Fastiv rail hub severely disrupt all Class I/V NATO transit into the Southern Operational Area, triggering a logistical failure cascading toward Stepnohorsk.
3. Forced Withdrawal: Without logistical support and under tactical pressure from the 37th GMRB exploitation, UAF Phase Line ALPHA forces initiate a chaotic, disorganized withdrawal, incurring critical attrition and ceding significant territory.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL)

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1. Operational Maneuver and Fires (J3 / G2)

ACTION: PRIORITIZE STEPNOHORSK MANEUVER; ASSESS C2 DAMAGE.

1. Stepnohorsk Priority Override (052345Z): G2 must issue a CRITICAL MANDATE elevating the P2 Stepnohorsk defense to equal P1 priority, regardless of the ongoing deep battle. Order BRAVO-BLOCK to MOVE IMMEDIATELY, led by MCLC/engineer teams, utilizing designated EW cover. Accept initial attrition over operational delay.
2. IADS Contingency: Immediately place remaining strategic IADS assets (Patriot/NASAMS) into a high-readiness mobile posture (MIP), anticipating either a second wave or a strike pivot back toward Zolotonosha/Odesa.
3. Fastiv BDA Fires: If IMINT confirms the Fastiv rail junction is functionally destroyed, immediately reroute all rail logistics through secondary nodes (e.g., Kropyvnytskyi) to maintain Class V flow south.

7.2. Strategic Communications (STRATCOM / NCA)

ACTION: MINIMIZE KYIV SHOCK; MAXIMIZE DIPLOMATIC WINS.

1. Kinetic Messaging: Acknowledge the AD work over Kyiv, but immediately pivot the primary media focus to the ongoing ground defense at Stepnohorsk/Zaporizhzhia, framing the Kyiv attack as a desperate distraction attempt by RF to mask its failures on the ground.
2. Counter-Fragmentation IO: Immediately amplify TASS reports confirming US/Kyiv discussions, re-framing the talks not as "post-war reconstruction" but as an agreement on "security issues and deterrence measures," demonstrating enduring partnership during the kinetic crisis.
3. Corruption Counter-Narrative: Reiterate the "Clean Hands" narrative (weaponizing the MP Skorod arrest) to neutralize RF attempts to synchronize internal friction with kinetic shock.

7.3. Electronic Warfare (J6)

1. P2 Maneuver Support: Dedicate all available EW assets (Bukovel-AD, Nota, etc.) to the Stepnohorsk BRAVO-BLOCK AoA to provide maximum C2 disruption against "Mangas" UAS during the reserve movement phase. This is the single highest tactical EW priority.
2. P4 Sector Adjustment: Continue intensive jamming in Kyiv and Chernihiv sectors to deny RF UAV success metrics and reduce the psychological impact of the continued UAV fixation effort.

//END OF JISR//