JOINT INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (JISR) 25-12-05/095
TIME: 052315Z DEC 2025
SUBJECT: SMT EXECUTION PHASE: P4 DIVERSION CONFIRMED ACTIVE. P2 RESERVE MOVEMENT FAILURE THREAT NOW CRITICAL.
PRIORITY: P1 SMT INTERDICTION (CRITICAL); P2 STEPNOHORSK DEFENSIVE POSTURE (CRITICAL).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
The enemy is successfully executing the multi-domain synchronization plan identified in JISR 094. The P4 UAV fixation effort is active across multiple axes, confirming the enemy intent to draw AD assets away from the SMT strategic target zone (Zolotonosha).
- Deep Battle Airspace (P4 Confirmed Strikes): UAV strikes have been confirmed in the Kyiv Oblast (Fastiv/Nafthimash area, 052238Z, 052250Z) and Chernihiv (052245Z). This confirms that enemy kinetic assets are successfully hitting high-value, non-strategic fixation targets designed to trigger local IADS expenditure.
- Widespread Fixation: The overall geographical spread of P4 activity now encompasses six oblasts: Kyiv, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Pavlohrad, and Kremenchuk (052302Z). This forces the UAF IADS to operate at maximum dispersal.
- Zolotonosha (CoG): The strategic vulnerability of the Zolotonosha logistical hub is currently exacerbated by the diversion of high-value interceptor resources toward P4 defense.
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Clear conditions persist, maintaining optimal operational tempo for high-precision deep strike and UAS activity.
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: CRITICAL)
TACTICAL ALIGNMENT FAILURE AT P2/STEPNOHORSK: The critical execution window for the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve movement (NLT 052245Z per JISR 094) has elapsed. Without positive confirmation of armored spearhead movement, operational maneuver integrity at Stepnohorsk is now highly threatened. RF 37th GMRB MLD is operating against forward lines without the anticipated UAF counter-mobility/reserve buffer.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
The enemy demonstrates high C2 effectiveness and synchronization capability, specifically in the use of simultaneous tactical (P4) and strategic (SMT) pressure.
- SMT Synchronization Confirmation: The targeting of key industrial/logistical infrastructure in Kyiv Oblast (Fastiv) immediately following the SMT launch validates the assessment that RF intends to maximize IADS confusion and geographical dispersal during the SMT terminal phase.
- P4 Objectives Met: The UAV strikes are achieving the desired operational effect: forcing UAF IADS to spend limited resources defending low-priority civilian/industrial targets distant from the main SMT objective (Zolotonosha).
- MLD Momentum: The RF intent at Stepnohorsk shifts from breaching to exploitation if the P2 reserve movement is confirmed stalled or delayed by "Mangas" RMAO. RF intends to secure Phase Line ALPHA before UAF engineers can breach the aerial minefields.
2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
RF Strategic Air capability remains robust. The confirmed targeting shift to Fastiv (potential petrochemical/rail target) indicates sustained interest in disrupting Ukrainian rear-area logistics, compensating for the UAF successful strike on Temryuk fuel assets.
2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
RF C2 remains robust, coordinating simultaneous, multi-vector, multi-platform attacks (SMT, P4 UAVs, ground MLD). The coordinated disinformation noise (TASS 31 DEC holiday) serves its tactical purpose by diverting attention at the political level during the kinetic crisis.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: CRITICAL)
IADS Status: UAF IADS systems are engaged in high-volume, low-priority engagements (P4). This operational tempo is unsustainable and directly jeopardizes the defense against the SMT volley targeting Zolotonosha.
Stepnohorsk Status: Readiness at Phase Line ALPHA is degrading. The operational reserves (P2, BRAVO-BLOCK) are assessed as either stalled or committed in piecemeal fashion due to the confirmed intelligence gap regarding movement and the known threat of "Mangas" aerial minefields on their AoA.
3.2. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CRITICAL)
The immediate constraints are time and high-value interceptor inventory.
- IADS Interceptors: Must be immediately conserved and re-allocated for the SMT interception (Impact Window: NLT 060030Z).
- Engineer Assets (MCLC): Critical bottleneck for P2 movement. Engineer support must be forcibly paired with the reserve units or the MLD will succeed.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
The RF strategy remains the application of kinetic shock simultaneous with cognitive paralysis and distraction.
| Domain | Finding (FACT/Judgment) | Confidence | Operational Impact |
|---|
| P9: International Cohesion | TASS confirmed US/Ukraine consultations continue 06 DEC (052301Z). | HIGH (Fact) | Mitigation of MDCOA: This fact slightly reduces the risk of immediate strategic political paralysis and signals continued high-level support, despite previous diplomatic setbacks (Belgian assets). |
| P4: Cognitive Noise/Distraction | TASS amplifying irrelevant domestic policy discussions (31 Dec holiday, 052255Z). | HIGH (Judgment) | Standard RF noise campaign designed to reduce media bandwidth and analytical focus on the immediate, critical kinetic and tactical crises (SMT/MLD). |
| P5: Domestic Morale | Confirmed impacts in Kyiv/Chernihiv area (Fastiv) are being amplified by domestic media alerts (052234Z). | HIGH (Judgment) | Increases population stress and C2 load on local commanders, reinforcing the narrative that UAF AD cannot protect urban centers, achieving the fixation objective. |
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
SMT Logistical Decapitation & Stepnohorsk Breach Solidified.
- Logistical Denial: The SMT volley achieves a high kill probability on the Zolotonosha rail/POL junction (052330Z - 060030Z), due to the effective P4 diversion forcing sub-optimal IADS coverage.
- P2 Critical Delay: The BRAVO-BLOCK reserves remain stalled or are moving without MCLC lead, suffering high attrition from "Mangas" minefields, delaying effective counter-attack until 060600Z.
- Stepnohorsk MLD Success: RF 37th GMRB exploits the breach, utilizing fire superiority enabled by the Zolotonosha denial, establishing defensive positions deep within Phase Line ALPHA, threatening a tactical encirclement.
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: MEDIUM)
Strategic C2 and Logistical Paralysis.
- Double Decapitation: SMT successfully strikes Zolotonosha and a key secondary C2/military node (e.g., Fastiv industrial/logistical center is hit multiple times, disrupting rail transit of NATO equipment).
- Kinetic Domino Effect: The logistical shock (Zolotonosha) prevents critical Class V resupply to the South. The combination of successful 37th GMRB exploitation, logistical denial, and delayed reserve commitment forces a non-standard, disorganized tactical withdrawal from Stepnohorsk, incurring massive force attrition.
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL)
| Event | Estimated Time Frame | Decision Point | Status Update |
|---|
| P2: BRAVO-BLOCK Critical Movement Initiation | IMMEDIATELY (052315Z) | Movement Order Override: Command must override procedural delays and order P2 movement now, accepting initial losses, or the Stepnohorsk defense fails. MCLC MUST LEAD. | PASSED DEADLINE - CRISIS MODE |
| P1: Strategic Missile Impact Window | 052330Z - 060030Z | IADS FIRE CONTROL ORDER. Enforce centralized IADS directive: Zero high-value interceptors on P4 targets. Redirect ALL Patriot/NASAMS C2/tracking to the SMT trajectory (Zolotonosha). | IMMINENT |
| RF Fixation Peaking | 052300Z - 052400Z | Decision to Accept Risk for all urban/infrastructure targets currently under P4 attack (Kyiv/Fastiv, Chernihiv, etc.). | CURRENT PHASE |
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
| Priority | Gap Description | Required Action | Confidence Impact |
|---|
| P1 (CRITICAL - MANEUVER EXECUTION) | BRAVO-BLOCK Movement Confirmation. Immediate confirmation that MCLC elements are active and P2 is moving. | IMMEDIATE ISR/HUMINT: Require ground confirmation/live video from the P2 staging area and initial AoA. If unavailable, require high-resolution (HR) satellite pass confirmation NLT 060000Z. | CRITICAL |
| P2 (CRITICAL - SMT TARGETING) | SMT Trajectory and Final Target Set. Precise confirmation of Zolotonosha target (Rail Bridge vs. POL storage). | IMMEDIATE SIGINT/ELINT/IMINT: Continued high priority filter on RF deep battle BDA and post-launch trajectory data streams. | HIGH |
| P3 (TECH/EW) | "Mangas" C2 Frequencies and FOLs. Location and operational frequency of the aerial mining UAS system. | URGENT EW/SIGINT: Dedicated monitoring of UAV control frequencies along the Stepnohorsk AoA to permit targeted jamming and physical interdiction. | HIGH |
7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS
7.1. Operational Maneuver and Fires (J3 / G2)
ACTION: CONSERVE INTERCEPTORS FOR SMT; FORCIBLY COMMENCE P2 MOVEMENT.
- IADS Command Override (052320Z): Issue a RED COMMAND DIRECTIVE: NO Patriot or NASAMS intercepts are authorized for targets identified as P4 (UAVs/Geran-2) in the Kyiv, Chernihiv, or Kharkiv Sectors. All available high-value interceptors must be held for SMT trajectory interdiction focused on Zolotonosha defense. Accept collateral damage/fixation strikes elsewhere.
- P2 Forced Commitment: Issue the order for BRAVO-BLOCK to move immediately. MCLC assets must lead all columns. If MCLC assets are delayed or unavailable, the mechanized force must proceed under direct fire support with integrated engineer de-mining teams, accepting the risk of initial mine casualties, as delay guarantees operational failure.
- Local AD Re-tasking: Immediately redirect all available SHORAD (Gepard, VADS, MANPADS) and MG teams in the targeted urban centers (Kyiv, Chernihiv, Dnipro) to low-altitude P4 defense, supplementing EW efforts.
7.2. Strategic Communications (STRATCOM / NCA)
ACTION: LEVERAGE DIPLOMATIC CONTINUITY; PREPARE FOR BDA CONTROL.
- Counter-Fragmentation IO: Immediately leak information confirming the continuing strategic consultations with US counterparts (06 DEC), framing this continuity as proof of enduring partnership and denying the RF narrative of abandonment.
- Kinetic Damage Control: Prepare BDA packages for immediate release post-SMT impact. If Zolotonosha is struck, emphasize the enemy's willingness to commit strategic resources to logistical denial due to successful UAF tactical gains (e.g., Temryuk).
7.3. Electronic Warfare (J6)
- Counter-Mangas Jamming (Stepnohorsk AoA): Dedicate EW assets (e.g., Bukovel-AD, Nota) operating near the P2 staging areas to conduct continuous, high-power, broad-spectrum jamming focused on typical C2/GPS frequency ranges utilized by the "Mangas" UAS, aiming to disrupt RMAO mid-flight or upon deployment.
- P4 Sector Jamming: Increase jamming intensity in Kyiv and Chernihiv sectors to deny RF UAV success metrics and reduce the demand for kinetic intercepts.
//END OF JISR//
