JOINT INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (JISR) 25-12-05/093
TIME: 052205Z DEC 2025
SUBJECT: STRATEGIC MISSILE THREAT (SMT) HIGH. P2 BRAVO-BLOCK MOVEMENT FAILURE CONFIRMED. RF SIMULTANEOUS KINETIC/POLITICAL COERCION PEAKING.
PRIORITY: P1 STRATEGIC MISSILE INTERDICTION (CRITICAL); P2 BRAVO-BLOCK IMMEDIATE MOVEMENT (EXECUTION); P4 Zolotonosha Logistics Defense (HIGH RISK).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
The operational situation has transitioned from a tactical crisis (Stepnohorsk MLD exploitation) to a strategic national threat due to the confirmed launch of Russian strategic aviation assets. The focus is now divided between immediate AD response and forcing the critically delayed reserve movement.
- Stepnohorsk Axis (MLD): RF 37th GMRB exploitation is proceeding without immediate UAF reserve opposition. Penetration depth assessment remains critical.
- Deep Strike Focus (P1 SMT): Confirmed launch of 7x Strategic Bombers (2x Tu-95MS, 5x Tu-160) from multiple airbases (052200Z). This initiates the highest level Strategic Missile Threat (SMT) window. Primary targets are highly likely to include strategic C2 nodes, logistics hubs (Zolotonosha), and critical infrastructure beyond the tactical zone.
- Distraction Vectors: UAV activity continues over Kyiv (Vasylkiv, Bila Tserkva, 052137Z) and Mykolaiv (Berezanka, 052157Z), confirming ongoing RF fixation efforts designed to dilute the UAF integrated AD system (IADS) just prior to the SMT impact window.
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Clear conditions persist, providing optimal conditions for long-range missile guidance, UAV swarm coordination, and high-tempo RF ground operations.
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: CRITICAL)
P2 Movement Failure Confirmed: Since the NLT 052145Z decision window for BRAVO-BLOCK status has elapsed without confirmation of positive mass movement, we must proceed under the operational assumption of Movement Delay/Execution Failure. Forward forces at Phase Line ALPHA are isolated and under sustained pressure.
- UAF IADS: IADS assets are now split between managing the sustained UAV swarm (P4 Zolotonosha, Kyiv, Mykolaiv) and preparing for the incoming SMT missile salvo. This asset dispersal is the desired RF effect.
- Reserve Posture: BRAVO-BLOCK remains staged, vulnerable to pre-emptive fires and further delayed by "Mangas" aerial minefields.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Overall Intent: Achieve multi-domain decisive victory by leveraging kinetic overmatch (SMT/MLD) to create political paralysis (Miami IO).
- SMT Capability: The launch of 7 strategic bombers indicates the intention to deploy a substantial missile volley (AS-23, AS-15, etc.). This capability is intended to target the foundational stability of UAF operations (C2, national logistics, electrical grid).
- Information Warfare Synchronization: The strategic bomber launch is precisely timed with the proliferation of reports (Axios/RF media) regarding high-level secret talks centered on "territorial compromise" (052202Z). This synchronicity aims to achieve maximum cognitive shock on the NCA, pressuring leadership to cease offensive action or withdraw assets under the threat of catastrophic national strike.
2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
RF strategic aviation sustainment appears robust, confirming independent logistical resilience for deep strike operations, separate from the SGF ground force fuel crisis (Temryuk). Immediate logistics focus is the missile payload delivery.
2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
RF C2 demonstrates superior, centralized synchronization of strategic kinetic operations (SMT launch) and high-level diplomatic/IO campaigns (Miami reports). The simultaneous execution of the MLD, P4 UAV saturation, and SMT launch suggests a single, highly effective command structure driving the operational tempo.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: CRITICAL)
UAF posture is in a state of crisis. The failure to execute P2 immediately risks tactical defeat at Stepnohorsk coinciding with strategic shock from the incoming SMT. IADS must execute rapid reassignment protocols to prioritize the SMT trajectory analysis.
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- Setback: Failure to confirm P2 commitment (operational crisis).
- New Setback: Confirmed RF strike on UAF artillery (Bohdana) reinforces the necessity of dynamic counter-battery fire and tactical dispersion during the MLD kinetic phase (052203Z).
- Success: Effective Counter-IO denying RF encirclement claims (Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad, 052134Z).
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CRITICAL)
The primary constraint is AD Missile Interceptor Inventory and Allocation time. Given the 7-bomber launch, the UAF IADS is severely stressed. Immediate allocation decision authority must be granted to local AD commanders to engage based on real-time track data, bypassing lengthy C2 clearance times.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
The Information Environment is being weaponized to support the SMT launch and MLD exploitation.
| Domain | Finding (FACT/Judgment) | Confidence | Operational Impact |
|---|
| P9: Strategic Coercion | Axios/RF media report secret negotiations involving US proxies and Ukrainian officials regarding "territorial compromise" (052202Z). | HIGH | Directly targets NCA cohesion and morale during the SMT window. Intended to sow doubt about the purpose of continued combat and pressure immediate de-escalation/withdrawal. |
| New International IO | Reports of drone surveillance near President Zelenskyy in Dublin (052150Z). | MEDIUM | Signals RF reach and attempts to create an aura of insecurity around the Head of State, impacting international perception of safety. |
| PSYOPS Amplification | RF channels amplifying their deep strike capabilities (animated scheme, 052145Z). | HIGH | Supports the ongoing threat of the MLD and incoming SMT, validating RF military dominance narratives for internal consumption and UAF demoralization. |
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
SMT Logistical Decapitation and MLD Breakthrough.
- SMT Strike (052330Z - 060030Z): The missile volley will successfully interdict the Zolotonosha rail/road junction, severely degrading the UAF logistics flow (Class V/III) to the Southern Front.
- C2 Paralysis: The combined pressure of the SMT impact and the Miami "compromise" IO causes significant delay (4-6 hours) in the NCA authorizing necessary reinforcement or tactical C2 adjustments.
- Stepnohorsk Breakthrough: Leveraging the P2 delay and severed logistics, the RF 37th GMRB achieves operational breakthrough (15-20km penetration) by 060600Z DEC, necessitating a planned withdrawal from Phase Line ALPHA.
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: MEDIUM)
C2/Political Collapse and Mass Strike.
- Mass Civilian Strike: The SMT volley targets high-value, high-casualty civilian infrastructure (e.g., residential areas in Kyiv or Dnipro) specifically to maximize domestic panic and international condemnation, forcing immediate political concessions.
- Counter-Reserve Strike: A portion of the SMT is successfully targeted against the delayed BRAVO-BLOCK staging area, leading to mass attrition before commitment.
- Immediate Political Demand: The combination of kinetic and political pressure forces the NCA to issue a stand-down or seek a ceasefire under duress, leading to an immediate operational collapse of the Southern Front defensive integrity.
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL)
| Event | Estimated Time Frame | Decision Point | Status Update |
|---|
| P2: BRAVO-BLOCK Immediate Commitment | NLT 052215Z | IMMEDIATE MOVEMENT ORDER. Must proceed now, accepting the risks of RMAO/attrition. | 10 MINUTE WINDOW |
| P1: Strategic Missile Impact Window | 052330Z - 060030Z | IADS EXECUTION ORDER. Authorize local AD units (Patriot/NASAMS) to engage based on track identification of strategic missiles, bypassing higher command if necessary. | CRITICAL AD PHASE |
| MLD Breakthrough Confirmation | 060100Z | Confirmation of 10+km RF penetration to initiate Tactical Withdrawal/Phase Line BETA Defense. | KINETIC URGENCY |
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
| Priority | Gap Description | Required Action | Confidence Impact |
|---|
| P1 (CRITICAL - SMT TARGETING) | Missile Trajectory and Target Specifics. Need confirmation of the most likely SMT impact locations (C2, Zolotonosha, or other infrastructure). | IMMEDIATE ISR/SIGINT Focus: Prioritize satellite IR and ELINT track analysis on all confirmed missile launches and projected flight paths. | HIGH |
| P2 (CRITICAL - MOVEMENT STATUS) | BRAVO-BLOCK Physical Commitment Status. Need positive confirmation (IMINT/HUMINT) that the movement order has been received and executed after the 052215Z deadline. | IMMEDIATE IMINT/ISR Tasking: High-tempo imagery cycles of P2 movement initial 10km AoAs. | CRITICAL |
| P3 (IO/DIPLOMATIC) | Details of the Miami Negotiation Scope. Confirmation of the US/Trump proxy demands and NCA position on "territorial compromise." | IMMEDIATE HUMINT/COMINT: Urgent debrief/secure communication requirement with Miami delegation. | HIGH |
7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS
7.1. Operational Maneuver and Fires (J3 / G2)
ACTION: EXECUTE P2 MOVEMENT IMMEDIATELY AND PRIORITIZE SMT INTERCEPTION.
- IMMEDIATE, NO-DELAY EXECUTION OF P2: Issue a direct, overriding order for BRAVO-BLOCK to commence movement NLT 052215Z. The command must accept high risk of RMAO attrition. Utilize all available Engineer Combat Teams (ECTs) and MCLC assets as pathfinders.
- IADS Asset Reallocation (SMT Focus): Immediately designate all long-range AD assets (Patriot, NASAMS) to the defense of Zolotonosha and the National C2/Government Center (Kyiv/Vinnitsya) along the projected SMT flight corridors. Accept higher risk for fixation targets (Kyiv UAVs).
- P4 Logistics Defense: Redirect remaining mobile SHORAD/VADS (Gepard, Avenger) to establish a terminal engagement box around the Zolotonosha rail bridge/junction. The focus is 100% interdiction of SMT and P4 UAV strikes at this site.
7.2. Strategic Communications (STRATCOM / NCA)
ACTION: COUNTER THE 'COMPROMISE' NARRATIVE WITH UNYIELDING RESOLVE.
- NCA Declaration of Resolve (NLT 052230Z): The President/Highest Military Authority must issue an immediate, highly visible statement that directly acknowledges the SMT threat and the MLD, simultaneously denouncing the RF IO about "territorial compromise" as enemy disinformation designed to weaken resolve during a kinetic attack. Reaffirm the integrity of current borders.
- Amplify International Support: Utilize the reported UAF training of NATO forces (INTERFLEX, 052158Z) as primary STRATCOM material to demonstrate technological superiority and sustained Western commitment, counteracting the narrative of isolation and compromise.
7.3. Electronic Warfare (J6)
- Maximize EW for P2 Protection: The dedicated broad-spectrum jamming box (400-900 MHz) ahead of P2 movement is now paramount. This mission must be executed immediately to provide any chance of success against "Mangas" RMAO and FPV attrition along the AoA.
- Deep Battle EMP: Prepare to execute full-spectrum EW saturation against identified RF strategic communication relay nodes (if located) to disrupt post-strike Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) communications and slow RF exploitation.
//END OF JISR//
