Situation Report

JOINT INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (JISR) 25-12-05/092

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TIME: 052135Z DEC 2025 SUBJECT: P2 BRAVO-BLOCK CRITICAL TIME WINDOW ELAPSED. RF DEEP STRIKE MULTI-VECTOR EXECUTION. LOGISTICS SEVERANCE IMMINENT. PRIORITY: P4 Zolotonosha Logistics Defense (CRITICAL - 25 MINUTES TO STRIKE WINDOW); P2 BRAVO-BLOCK (CRITICAL - MOVEMENT STATUS UNCONFIRMED/DELAYED); P9 Counter NCA Destabilization (ACUTE ESCALATION).

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The operational focus remains locked on the Stepnohorsk Main Land Drive (MLD), where the RF 37th GMRB is exploiting an operational delay by the UAF BRAVO-BLOCK reserve. The enemy is simultaneously saturating the deep battle space (Zolotonosha, Poltava, Kyiv axis) with Multi-Vector UAV Operations (MUAVO).

• Stepnohorsk Axis: The MLD is underway. Intelligence currently assesses the RF is successfully consolidating Phase Line ALPHA penetration, facilitated by the "Mangas" Rapid Mine-laying Operations (RMAO) which successfully delayed the UAF reserve movement past the critical NLT 052115Z window.
• Deep Strike Focus (P4): UAV groups continue fixation and saturation efforts across central Ukraine, indicating the Zolotonosha logistics hub (Cherkasy Oblast) remains the center of gravity for RF interdiction. New UAV reports confirm groups heading toward Kremenchuk (052115Z) and multiple axes covering NW Poltava, NE Cherkasy, and SE Kyiv (052117Z).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Optimal clear conditions persist, directly enabling high-tempo RF MUAVO and the exploitation of long-range intelligence/strike assets against UAF delayed reserve movement.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: CRITICAL)

The kinetic situation is deteriorating due to C2 latency in the face of rapid enemy synchronization.

• P2 Status (CRITICAL FAILURE JUDGMENT): The 052115Z deadline for the BRAVO-BLOCK full kinetic commitment has elapsed without confirmed reporting of mass movement. This judgment is based on the lack of positive reporting despite immediate IMINT/HUMINT collection requirements issued at 052105Z. We must operate under the assumption that movement is now delayed, uncoordinated, or moving piecemeal and at high risk of attrition by RMAO/RF fires.
• RF Deep Strike Projection: Drone activity in Sumy region (052128Z) confirms widening the distraction/fixation effort along the Northern Front to further dilute UAF Air Defense (AD) assets.
• Friendly Deep Reach: Confirmed damage to Russian Long-distance Power Lines (LPP) near Voronezh (052128Z), corroborating UAF strategic success.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Overall Intent: Leverage the operational time advantage gained from UAF reserve delay and NCA paralysis to achieve deep penetration at Stepnohorsk and simultaneously neutralize UAF sustainment via the Zolotonosha axis.

• Multi-Domain Synchronization: RF operations demonstrate highly effective synchronization across kinetic, IO, and diplomatic domains (denunciation of pacts, mass UAV strikes, Kadyrov PSYOPS).
• Information Warfare Integration: Kadyrov's high-profile, aggressive propaganda releases (052107Z, 052108Z, 052124Z) are timed exactly to coincide with the kinetic MLD launch, aiming to intensify domestic pressure and fracture the UAF NCA.
• Sustainment Planning (Long-term): Reports of negotiations with India regarding potential domestic production of "Lancet" drones (052115Z) indicate RF is planning for prolonged, high-intensity conflict requiring secure, dedicated UAV supply chains, bypassing Western sanctions.

2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

While the UAF strike on Temryuk fuel storage will impose future constraints (48-72 hrs), RF logistics for the current MLD remain adequate. The immediate RF priority is offensive kinetic sustainment, specifically UAV/missile resupply to maintain the intense P4 vector against Zolotonosha.

2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

RF C2 remains highly adaptive and effective. The rapid, synchronized deployment of tactical military capabilities (RMAO, MLD) alongside strategic diplomatic signaling (denunciation of Western military pacts, 052133Z) demonstrates a centralized, capable planning authority leveraging multi-domain effects.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: CRITICAL)

Defensive posture at Stepnohorsk is now highly vulnerable due to the elapsed time window for P2 commitment. Forward units must now conduct a delaying action against a fully committed RF assault force without the intended pre-emptive support. Readiness for Phase Line ALPHA forces is severely taxed.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

• Tactical Setback (Operational): Failure to confirm BRAVO-BLOCK movement by 052115Z is an operational failure, increasing expected casualties and the risk of penetration.
• Strategic Success (Deep Strike Confirmation): Russian sources confirm the successful UAF strike on Voronezh LPP (052128Z). This provides immediate STRATCOM material to counter internal panic.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CRITICAL)

The resource requirement has shifted from authorization to execution under duress. Immediate deployment of additional mobile AD assets to Zolotonosha is required, and expedited Engineer Combat Team (ECT) escort for any confirmed P2 movement is paramount, regardless of delays.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

The Information Environment is transitioning from ACUTE EXPLOITATION to ACTIVE TARGETING of Ukrainian morale and decision-making centers.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

Focused Penetration and Logistical Severance.

1. Exploitation: RF 37th GMRB accelerates breach exploitation, utilizing the 20+ minute delay in UAF reserve commitment to deepen the wedge beyond 10km by 060001Z DEC.
2. P4 Success: The sustained MUAVO pressure results in a successful RF strike against the Zolotonosha rail junction/bridge NLT 052200Z. This severely degrades Class V (Ammo) flow, impacting UAF defensive fire sustainability at Stepnohorsk within 6-12 hours.
3. Reserve Attrition: When P2 eventually moves, it will be immediately engaged by RF long-range fires and delayed by RMAO, sustaining higher than projected attrition rates.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: MEDIUM)

C2 Paralysis Leading to Operational Collapse.

1. C2 Fragmentation: The failure to execute P2 timely results in a crisis of confidence in the NCA/military command. RF IO (Kadyrov PSYOPS) successfully incites localized panic or mass demoralization.
2. Deep Penetration: RF second echelon forces (e.g., elements of 38th GMRB) bypass the delayed P2 and move rapidly into the operational depth, threatening a critical communications node or severing key lines of communication (LOCs) further west.
3. Negotiation Under Duress: The combined kinetic-IO failure forces the political leadership to seek an immediate ceasefire under severely unfavorable conditions, resulting in significant territorial loss.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL)

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1. Operational Maneuver and Fires (J3 / G2)

ACTION: EXECUTE P2 MOVEMENT NOW, MAXIMIZING SPEED AND ACCEPTING DAMAGE.

1. Emergency Delegation and Movement: If movement confirmation is not received by 052145Z, the local operational commander must be tasked with commencing movement immediately, regardless of initial RMAO delay. Speed is now the primary objective over perfect clearance.
2. Zolotonosha AD Overmatch: Immediately shift 80% of all mobile SHORAD/VADS assets currently dedicated to distraction sectors (Kyiv, Sumy) to the Zolotonosha Rail/Road Junction. The threat of logistical severance outweighs the fixation effort. P4 strike is imminent (NLT 052200Z).
3. Counter-RMAO Protocol: Any confirmed P2 movement must utilize expendable pathfinder LRVs/armored bulldozers to provoke mine detonation or map density, prioritizing establishing a narrow but usable path for main maneuver elements.

7.2. Strategic Communications (STRATCOM / NCA)

ACTION: COUNTER PSYOPS WITH DOMESTIC STRENGTH AND EXTERNAL REACH.

1. Immediate Political Statement (Kinetic Focus): The NCA must issue a rapid response statement (NLT 052200Z) that ignores the political infighting (Skorod, etc.) and focuses exclusively on: 1) The successful strike on the Voronezh LPP; 2) The ongoing, resolute defense of Stepnohorsk; and 3) An explicit rejection of Kadyrov’s rhetoric as enemy PSYOPS.
2. Amplify International Commitment: Utilize the diplomatic denunciation of pacts (Canada, France, Portugal) to immediately coordinate a public statement with these NATO allies affirming current military support and technological transfer, thereby countering the narrative of strategic isolation.

7.3. Electronic Warfare (J6)

1. Priority Jamming Box: Establish a dedicated, rolling Broad Spectrum Jamming Box (focused 400-900 MHz) ahead of any confirmed P2 movement. This must be the highest priority mission for available tactical EW assets to prevent further RMAO proliferation and degrade RF FPV targeting capability against the moving column.

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