JOINT INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (JISR) 25-12-05/091
TIME: 052105Z DEC 2025
SUBJECT: STEPNOHORSK MLD H-HOUR EXCEEDED. BRAVO-BLOCK DECISION POINT MISSED. HIGH RISK OF OPERATIONAL PENETRATION.
PRIORITY: P2 BRAVO-BLOCK Kinetic Commitment (CRITICAL - MISSED DEADLINE); P4 Zolotonosha Logistics Defense (CRITICAL - ACTIVE THREAT); P9 Counter NCA Destabilization (ACUTE ESCALATION).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
The operational environment is currently focused on the execution phase of the Main Land Drive (MLD) at Stepnohorsk (Zaporizhzhia Direction). The RF 37th GMRB is assessed to be engaging UAF forward defense positions (Phase Line ALPHA).
- Stepnohorsk Axis: RF mechanized elements are initiating the breach effort. The confirmed deployment of "Mangas" Rapid Mine-laying Operations (RMAO) on UAF designated Avenues of Approach (AoAs) remains the critical counter-mobility constraint against UAF reserves.
- Deep Strike Focus (P4): UAV fixation sorties toward Poltava, Sumy, and Chernihiv continue (052043Z, 052102Z). The primary intent remains to draw AD coverage away from the Zolotonosha rail junction/bridge (Cherkasy Oblast).
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Clear conditions persist, providing optimal visibility for both RF close air support (KABs) and continued multi-vector UAS operations (FPV, ISR, RMAO).
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: CRITICAL)
The kinetic situation is defined by a critical time-lag between RF H-Hour and UAF reinforcement.
- P2 Status (CRITICAL FAILURE): The mandatory decision point for the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve movement (NLT 052045Z) was missed. No confirmation of large-scale mechanized movement has been received as of 052105Z. This failure substantially increases the probability of operational penetration and potential localized collapse at Stepnohorsk.
- RF Deep Strike Projection: Confirmed UAF drone strike on critical power infrastructure in Voronezh suburbs (052057Z) indicates continued UAF strategic reach, but RF is successfully maintaining air superiority over its tactical AoAs.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Overall Intent: Exploit the operational gap created by UAF C2 paralysis and RMAO-induced delay to consolidate a breachhead before UAF reserves can be committed effectively.
- Kinetic Synchronization: RF operations are now synchronized, combining the MLD with sustained psychological warfare (P9) and active logistics interdiction (P4).
- Tactical Attrition: RF FPV drone capability remains highly lethal and synchronized with the ground offensive, confirmed by successful targeting of AFU vehicles (052047Z). This capability will amplify the cost of any delayed UAF counter-attack.
- IO Amplification: RF military bloggers (e.g., Colonelcassad, Kadyrov) immediately launched highly charged messages (052036Z, 052050Z) synchronized with H-Hour, attempting to drive home the narrative of imminent RF victory (Pokrovsk claims, 052059Z).
2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
No immediate change. RF focus is on maximizing kinetic effect now, accepting short-term logistical strains. Zolotonosha remains the center of gravity for RF interdiction efforts against UAF supply.
2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
RF C2 effectiveness is confirmed by the synchronized MLD launch concurrent with highly effective, rapid-response Information Operations and Deep Strike planning. The NCA paralysis noted in the friendly sector has been successfully leveraged by the enemy.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: CRITICAL)
Forward defenses at Stepnohorsk are under direct assault (H-Hour) without confirmed reserve commitment. Defensive fire support is sustainable for the short term, but prolonged engagement without Class V resupply (Zolotonosha failure) or reserve counter-attack (P2 delay) is unsustainable.
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- Strategic Projection: Confirmed UAF deep strike on RF energy infrastructure near Voronezh (052057Z). This must be immediately amplified to counter RF narratives of UAF vulnerability.
- Setback (Operational): Failure to confirm the P2 movement by 052045Z is an operational setback. Any movement now will be reactive, not preemptive, and likely result in higher losses due to unprepared AoAs.
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CRITICAL)
The operational decision window has closed. The immediate resource requirement is the deployment of Engineer Combat Teams (ECTs) to escort the BRAVO-BLOCK and the decisive commitment of mobile Air Defense assets to the Zolotonosha axis.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
The Information Environment is at ACUTE EXPLOITATION, focused on kinetic fear and political decay.
| Domain | Finding (FACT/Judgment) | Confidence | Operational Impact |
|---|
| P9: NCA Fracture Exploitation | UAF domestic sources confirm continued political infighting/discontent (052103Z). RF IO channels amplify military claims (Pokrovsk) and psychological warfare narratives (Kadyrov, 052050Z). | HIGH | Directly prolonging C2 delay, demoralizing rear areas and command staff. |
| Deep Battle Counter-Narrative | TASS confirms UAF strike on Voronezh power lines (052057Z). | HIGH | Provides an immediate factual counterpoint to RF claims of operational dominance; must be leveraged immediately. |
| Diversionary Narratives | RF IO attempts to capitalize on MAAE concerns regarding the Chornobyl shelter (052059Z), attempting to draw political and media attention away from the critical Stepnohorsk axis. | MEDIUM | Standard RF technique to overwhelm the cognitive domain and deplete UAF attention span. |
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
Sustained Penetration and Logistical Severance.
- Kinetic Penetration: RF 37th GMRB establishes a breachhead (10-15 km depth) at Stepnohorsk by 060001Z DEC.
- RMAO Attrition: The now-delayed BRAVO-BLOCK reserve begins movement but is engaged and stalled by "Mangas" deployed minefields and RF long-range fires, forcing high-risk clearance operations.
- P4 Success (Logistics Degradation): RF UAV/missile strike successfully targets and degrades the Zolotonosha rail junction (likely the bridge structure) NLT 052300Z, severing the primary Southern Front Class V (Ammo) artery.
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: MEDIUM)
Operational Collapse and Reserve Interdiction.
- Phase Line Alpha Collapse: Forward UAF defenses, unable to sustain the MLD without immediate reinforcement, begin unauthorized withdrawal, creating a widening breach.
- RF Operational Exploitation: RF reserves (e.g., 38th GMRB or follow-on echelons) utilize the breach to bypass Huliaipole and advance deep toward the key communications node, leading to the encirclement of UAF positions further West.
- C2 Fragmentation: The failure to respond effectively leads to significant public and international loss of confidence, resulting in political pressure to negotiate under duress.
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL)
| Event | Estimated Time Frame | Decision Point | Status Update |
|---|
| P2: BRAVO-BLOCK Full Kinetic Commitment | NOW - NLT 052115Z | IMMEDIATE DELEGATED KINETIC DECISION. Must be initiated regardless of previous political friction. | CRITICAL: 10 MINUTE WINDOW REMAINS |
| MLD Penetration Assessment | 052130Z | Confirmation of 37th GMRB depth of penetration (e.g., beyond 5km) to initiate pre-planned demolition (PDM) on local infrastructure. | CRITICAL KINETIC |
| P4: Zolotonosha AD Terminal Engagement | NLT 052200Z | Confirmation of successful engagement or failure to prevent strike on rail/road junction. | CRITICAL LOGISTICS DEFENSE |
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
| Priority | Gap Description | Required Action | Confidence Impact |
|---|
| P2 (CRITICAL - MOVEMENT STATUS) | BRAVO-BLOCK Physical Commitment. Need confirmation that the command chain has delegated authority and P2 columns are physically advancing, regardless of political confirmation. | IMMEDIATE IMINT/ISR Tasking: Dedicated high-tempo imagery cycles of P2 staging areas and initial 10km of AoAs. HUMINT confirmation of movement authorization. | CRITICAL |
| P1 (CRITICAL - RMAO/EW) | "MANGAS" UAS C2 Frequencies and FOLs. Required to enable targeted EW interference during P2 movement. | CONTINUOUS ELINT Tasking: Focused search in the 400-900 MHz band (drone C2 band). Need directional finding (DF) results to target FOLs. | CRITICAL |
| P3 (TACTICAL - LOGISTICS) | Zolotonosha Target Specifics. Confirmation if the P4 vector is targeting the Rail Bridge or adjacent POL Storage. | IMMEDIATE HUMINT/GEOINT: Local surveillance and ISR overhead of the rail junction. | HIGH |
7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS
7.1. Operational Maneuver and Fires (J3 / G2)
ACTION: DELEGATE AUTHORITY FOR P2 EXECUTION AND ACCEPT RISK OF ENGINEER DELAY.
- Immediate Delegated Authority: The immediate operational commander responsible for the BRAVO-BLOCK must be granted full authority to commence movement NOW (NLT 052115Z), irrespective of perceived constraints from the National Command Authority (NCA) delay. Time is exhausted.
- Tactical Modification (RMAO Mitigation): Prioritize speed of movement over perfect mine clearance. Utilize combined MCLC lead and path-finding Light Reconnaissance Vehicles (LRVs) to identify and mark mine belts, accepting the risk of non-catastrophic damage to lead elements, rather than accepting a complete stall.
- Zolotonosha Emergency AD: Immediately initiate rolling coverage of the Zolotonosha rail junction by mobile SHORAD assets (Gepard, SA-8) currently deployed in fixation sectors. The logistical artery is more critical than AD coverage over Poltava/Sumy at this H-Hour.
7.2. Strategic Communications (STRATCOM / NCA)
ACTION: COUNTER THE NARRATIVE OF POLITICAL CHAOS WITH KINETIC SUCCESS.
- Immediate Political Statement (Focus Shift): The NCA must issue a statement now that focuses exclusively on the kinetic defense of Stepnohorsk and the successful UAF counter-strike on Voronezh infrastructure. Ignore the political fallout (Yermak/Skorod) for the next six hours.
- Amplify Voronezh Strike: STRATCOM must immediately launch a high-impact campaign detailing the Voronezh power grid damage (052057Z) and the Kairos tanker strike (052029Z) to project strategic reach and operational competence, effectively countering RF narratives of operational success (Pokrovsk).
7.3. Electronic Warfare (J6)
- Dedicated RMAO Interdiction: Immediately deploy EW packages to the known AoAs of the BRAVO-BLOCK with the dedicated mission profile of jamming potential "Mangas" UAS control frequencies (400-900 MHz band). This is necessary to prevent mine density from increasing further during the reserve movement.
//END OF JISR//
