JOINT INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (JISR) 25-12-05/090
TIME: 052035Z DEC 2025
SUBJECT: STEPNOHORSK MLD H-HOUR MINUS 25 MINUTES. C2 DEGRADATION AMPLIFIED BY WESTERN FINANCIAL EROSION. BRAVO-BLOCK MOVEMENT UNCONFIRMED. CRITICAL DECISION POINT IMMINENT.
PRIORITY: P2 BRAVO-BLOCK Commitment (CRITICAL); P4 Zolotonosha Logistics Defense (CRITICAL); P9 Counter NCA Destabilization (ACUTE ESCALATION).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
The operational environment remains centered on the Stepnohorsk axis (Zaporizhzhia Direction). The kinetic phase (MLD) led by RF 37th GMRB is imminent, NLT 052100Z (T-25 minutes).
- Zaporizhzhia MLD Axis: The terrain remains favorable for RF mechanized maneuver. The critical constraint for UAF is the confirmed threat of "Mangas" RMAO (Rapid Mine-laying Operations) isolating the AoAs for the BRAVO-BLOCK (P2) reserve.
- Deep Strike Focus (P4): UAV/Missile vectors continue to concentrate toward the Zolotonosha rail junction (Cherkasy Oblast), confirming the intent to sever the Southern Front's primary Class V (Ammunition) supply line coinciding with the MLD launch.
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Clear conditions persist, providing optimal conditions for RF ISR, multi-vector UAS operations, and targeted delivery of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) toward Donetsk front lines.
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: CRITICAL)
The political-military friction noted in the previous report has resulted in a critical lack of operational decisiveness.
- P2 Status: Movement of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve remains UNCONFIRMED, despite the time-critical nature of the MLD launch. This constitutes an immediate operational vulnerability, matching the RF MLCOA assumption that UAF reserves will be delayed or immobilized.
- RF Fixation: UAF Air Force confirms continued fixation UAV sorties across Sumy, Chernihiv, Poltava, and Kharkiv regions (052018Z), designed to disperse and suppress UAF Air Defense (AD) assets away from the Zolotonosha P4 target.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Overall Intent: Achieve mechanized breakthrough at Stepnohorsk and simultaneously fracture UAF National Command Authority (NCA) cohesion via synchronized Information Operations (P9).
- Kinetic Synchronization: RF forces intend to initiate the MLD while UAF C2 is dealing with the political fallout of the Yermak removal.
- Weaponization of RMAO: The primary tactical capability deployed to guarantee MLD success is the "Mangas" RMAO system, which creates immediate, short-term counter-mobility problems for UAF reserves on AoAs, enabling the 37th GMRB to consolidate a breachhead.
- Strategic IO Amplification (P9): RF IO is capitalizing on the Yermak removal, framing it as political turmoil (052005Z, 052009Z) and immediately reinforcing the narrative of Western abandonment by leveraging confirmed diplomatic failures (Bundestag rejection, Belgium asset block).
2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
RF military bloggers continue to appeal for volunteer aid for tactical equipment (Dva Mayora, 052012Z), reinforcing the assessment of chronic, localized Class II shortages stemming from high attrition. This tactical strain, however, has not prevented the strategic concentration of force required for the Stepnohorsk MLD.
2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
RF C2 remains highly effective at synchronizing deep fires, tactical maneuver, and strategic information warfare. The immediate, targeted amplification of internal UAF political vulnerabilities (Yermak removal) demonstrates superior intelligence collection and rapid response in the cognitive domain.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- C2 Constraint (CRITICAL): The NCA must overcome the delay associated with the Yermak removal and the subsequent information war to authorize the timely commitment of P2 reserves. Failure to act within the next 10 minutes (NLT 052045Z) will expose forward defenses to a high risk of operational collapse.
- Deep Strike Capability Confirmed: UAF Sea Drone attack on the tanker Kairos near the coast of Bulgaria (052029Z) confirms continued strategic strike capability against RF maritime logistics and naval assets in the Black Sea.
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- Strategic Setback (International Financial): The refusal by the German Bundestag to pass anti-Russian resolutions (052013Z) and the Belgian block on the transfer of frozen Russian assets (052106Z) severely undermine the narrative of unified Western support. This provides direct material for RF IO efforts to demoralize UAF forces and the population.
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CRITICAL)
The immediate constraint is the operational tempo bottleneck caused by C2 paralysis. The resource requirement is the immediate commitment of Engineering assets (MCLC, rollers) to support the P2 movement.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
The Information Environment is at ACUTE CRITICAL - FULL SPECTRUM EXPLOITATION. The RF has successfully established a narrative stack demonstrating both internal UAF chaos and external financial abandonment.
| Domain | Finding (FACT/Judgment) | Confidence | Operational Impact |
|---|
| P9: NCA Acute Destabilization | Yermak removal confirmed (052005Z). RF IO portrays this as total political collapse and internal purges. | HIGH | CRITICAL: Designed specifically to delay the P2 decision and demoralize front-line troops. |
| International Financial Erosion | Germany/Belgium reject key anti-RF measures, compounding Hungary/Denmark aid losses. | HIGH | STRATEGIC RISK: Directly feeds the "Western Failure" narrative, potentially influencing future commitment decisions by allied nations. |
| Maritime Success Counter-Narrative | UAF Sea Drone strike on the Kairos tanker confirmed (052029Z). | HIGH | Must be immediately leveraged by STRATCOM to project operational competence and strategic reach against the RF political narrative. |
| Hostile Imagery/Psychological Warfare | RF channels disseminate grim video/photo messages focusing on casualties and war trauma (052019Z, 052020Z). | HIGH | Standard psychological warfare intended to degrade morale just prior to H-Hour. |
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
Tactical Breach, P2 Immobilization, and Logistical Strike.
- Kinetic Launch: RF 37th GMRB launches MLD (NLT 052100Z), achieving initial operational penetration (8-12 km) at Stepnohorsk.
- RMAO Success: The BRAVO-BLOCK is successfully slowed by "Mangas" aerial mine-laying along its designated AoAs. P2 begins movement NLT 052115Z but is delayed by clearance requirements, allowing RF to consolidate the breach.
- P4 Disruption: RF UAV/missile strike on the Zolotonosha rail junction severely disrupts Class V resupply within 6 hours, immediately degrading UAF forward fire support.
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: MEDIUM)
C2 Collapse and Operational Exploitation.
- Strategic C2 Paralysis: Political friction delays the P2 movement order past 052045Z.
- Deep Penetration: The 37th GMRB achieves deep operational penetration (>15 km) without effective counter-attack, forcing localized UAF forward position abandonment.
- Flank Encirclement: The unconfirmed threat from the 38th GMRB at Huliaipole is confirmed as a bypass effort, coinciding with the Zolotonosha logistical failure, leading to the rapid encirclement of defenses along Phase Line BRAVO.
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL)
| Event | Estimated Time Frame | Decision Point | Status Update |
|---|
| P2: BRAVO-BLOCK Movement Confirmation | NLT 052045Z | MANDATORY KINETIC DECISION. Confirmation of mechanized elements physically advancing from staging areas with Engineer lead. | CRITICAL - 10 MINUTE WINDOW |
| P4: Zolotonosha AD Engagement | 052040Z - 052100Z | AD assets must engage the P4 vector targeting the rail junction/bridge. | CRITICAL LOGISTICS DEFENSE |
| MLD Launch Confirmation (H-Hour) | NLT 052100Z | Confirmation of 37th GMRB mechanized assault launch. | CRITICAL KINETIC |
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
| Priority | Gap Description | Required Action | Confidence Impact |
|---|
| P2 (CRITICAL - MOVEMENT STATUS) | BRAVO-BLOCK Kinetic Movement. High-confidence, real-time confirmation (IMINT/HUMINT) that P2 columns are physically rolling under Engineer escort. | IMMEDIATE IMINT/ISR Tasking: Dedicated ISR overhead of P2 staging areas and primary AoAs (5-15 km depth). | CRITICAL |
| P1 (CRITICAL - RMAO/EW) | "MANGAS" UAS C2 Frequencies and FOLs. Identifying the command frequencies and forward operating locations (FOLs) to enable preemptive jamming and deep-strike interdiction. | CONTINUOUS ELINT Tasking: Focused search in the 400-900 MHz band and immediate GEOINT tasking on potential launch sites (likely 20-40km behind Stepnohorsk). | CRITICAL |
7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS
7.1. Operational Maneuver and Fires (J3 / G2)
ACTION: EXECUTE P2 MOVEMENT IMMEDIATE (PHASE RED) WITH ENGINEER OVERSIGHT.
- P2 Execution Order (IMMEDIATE): Authorize the Corps Commander controlling the BRAVO-BLOCK to disregard non-essential political communications and initiate movement NLT 052045Z. Time is the critical factor.
- Engineer Lead Mandate: The movement must be led by Mine Clearing Line Charges (MCLC) and armored rollers. No mechanized maneuver elements are authorized to proceed without active, immediate mine-clearing lead due to the confirmed "Mangas" threat.
- Zolotonosha AD Concentration: Immediately transfer available mobile AD systems (Gepard, VADS, SA-8) from lower-threat fixation sectors (e.g., Sumy/Chernihiv) to the Zolotonosha rail junction to ensure terminal defense against the P4 UAV vector.
7.2. Strategic Communications (STRATCOM / NCA)
ACTION: COUNTER NCA FRACTURE AND LEVERAGE OPERATIONAL SUCCESS.
- C2 Decisiveness Statement (ACUTE PRIORITY): Immediately issue a concise statement from the highest authority (President/MOD) framing the Yermak removal as necessary "wartime accountability" and projecting absolute, unwavering focus on the Stepnohorsk defense.
- Weaponize Operational Success: Launch an immediate campaign highlighting the successful Kairos Tanker strike (052029Z) as proof of operational depth and successful strategic targeting, overshadowing the political narrative.
- Diplomatic Triage: Initiate high-level engagement (Ministerial/Presidential) with German and Belgian counterparts to assess the root causes of the funding/asset-transfer setbacks, emphasizing that these actions directly empower RF aggression during the imminent MLD.
7.3. Electronic Warfare (J6)
- Counter-RMAO Jamming: Deploy all available wide-band jamming capabilities along the BRAVO-BLOCK AoAs to actively interfere with potential "Mangas" C2 frequencies, prioritizing the disruption of aerial mining operations during the critical P2 movement phase.
//END OF JISR//
