Situation Report

JOINT INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (JISR) 25-12-05/089

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TIME: 052015Z DEC 2025 SUBJECT: STEPNOHORSK MLD H-HOUR MINUS 45 MINUTES. ACUTE NCA POLITICAL CRISIS COINCIDES WITH KINETIC ASSAULT. WESTERN FINANCIAL SUPPORT DEGRADATION CONFIRMED. PRIORITY: P1 Neutralize RMAO Threat (IMMEDIATE); P2 BRAVO-BLOCK Commitment (CRITICAL); P9 Counter NCA Destabilization (ACUTE ESCALATION).

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The operational environment is transitioning into the kinetic phase of the Stepnohorsk Main Land Drive (MLD), NLT 052100Z. The RF strategy of synchronized kinetic pressure, logistical targeting, and strategic C2 paralysis is approaching culmination.

• Zaporizhzhia Direction (MLD Axis): RF 37th GMRB is in final staging. The BRAVO-BLOCK (P2) execute order remains unconfirmed past the critical 051930Z deadline. JUDGEMENT: The reserve force must now be assessed as entering the MLD timeframe significantly delayed, increasing the likelihood of localized RF breakthrough.
• Northern Fixation Confirmation: Hostile UAS activity continues in Sumy Oblast (Krolevets, Mykolaivka, Ulyanivka) tracking toward Chernihiv region (Korop). This confirms continued fixation aimed at dispersing UAF Air Defense (AD) assets away from the Zolotonosha logistical hub (P4).
• Deep Fires Maintenance: UAF forces confirmed a successful deep strike on occupied Alchevsk (Luhansk). RF forces reported launching KABs (Guided Aerial Bombs) toward Donetsk region.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Clear conditions persist, favoring RF ISR, deep strike, and UGV/RMAO operations. The Chernobyl NSC degradation remains a long-term strategic constraint.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The critical tactical status is the unconfirmed movement of the P2 reserve. The simultaneous ACUTE POLITICAL CRISIS (Yermak removal, detailed below) has fractured the National Command Authority (NCA) precisely when the kinetic decision is required.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Overall Intent: Achieve mechanized breakthrough at Stepnohorsk and exploit maximum political vulnerability to force tactical collapse.

• P9 Weaponization: RF Intelligence and Information Warfare (IO) assets immediately capitalized on the removal of Andriy Yermak from the Stavka and NSDC (Confirmed 051940Z-052003Z), framing it as political turmoil and internal fracture. This is the Primary Enemy Effort in the cognitive domain, designed to justify the delay of P2 and demoralize political will.
• Tactical Resilience: RF forces in Bryansk Oblast are initiating air raid and drone danger alerts, suggesting continued resilience against UAF deep strikes but also confirming the effectiveness of UAF long-range targeting.
• War Crimes Exploitation: RF continues to escalate psychological warfare, evidenced by the reported mining of deceased UAF POW bodies in Kursk Oblast. This tactic aims to complicate recovery, degrade morale, and create fear regarding capture.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

No new confirmed tactical changes since the use of "Mangas" RMAO, but the precision and timing of the Information Operations (P9) synchronized with the MLD is highly effective.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

RF military blogs (Dva Mayora) conducting visible, urgent fundraising appeals for protective armor ("Frontline Armor") suggest chronic shortages of specific Class II (Equipment) items, likely driven by high attrition rates and domestic production lag. This confirms ongoing RF logistical strain at the tactical edge.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

RF C2 demonstrated exceptional effectiveness in synchronizing the kinetic MLD with the political crisis IO (P9). Their ability to immediately pivot and amplify the Yermak removal reinforces the assessment that RF intelligence maintains deep operational insight into Kyiv's internal political environment.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

• C2 Disruption: The removal of a key political-military coordinator (Yermak) from the Stavka and NSDC constitutes a major high-level disruption that cannot be underestimated during H-Hour preparations.
• Stavka Mitigation: The Stavka immediately acted to counter the mobilization and morale crisis (Odesa TCC, AFU salary claims) by approving a guaranteed monthly personnel replenishment and a fair distribution scheme for combat brigades. This is a vital strategic decision designed to stabilize the lower echelons and boost long-term morale.
• Deep Strike Capability: Confirmed operational readiness to strike high-value targets in occupied territory (Alchevsk).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

• Strategic Setback (Political): The Yermak removal and the subsequent corruption allegations amplified by global media (NYT investigation) serve as a massive, self-inflicted strategic vulnerability coinciding with the MLD.
• Strategic Setback (International Financial): The Hungarian block of the €90 billion EU aid package and the planned halving of Danish aid in 2026 are significant, immediate financial setbacks that feed the long-term sustainment narrative failure.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CRITICAL)

The immediate constraint is the need for the NCA to project uninterrupted operational decisiveness despite internal political changes.

Constraint Escalation: The sudden drop in EU/Danish financial commitments requires immediate diplomatic triage to prevent contagion among other Western partners.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

The Information Environment status is elevated to ACUTE CRITICAL - EXPLOITATION PHASE. RF forces are actively utilizing verified facts (Yermak removal, Hungary Block, Denmark aid cut) to maximize domestic and international perception of impending collapse.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

MLD H-Hour is 45 minutes away. RF will commit the 37th GMRB assuming the P2 reserve is immobile due to C2 friction.

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

Limited Penetration and Sustained Political Pressure.

1. Kinetic Breach: RF launches MLD at 052100Z. Utilizing Kuryer UGVs and Mangas RMAO, they achieve initial operational penetration (8-12 km) at Stepnohorsk.
2. P2 Delay Exploitation: The BRAVO-BLOCK begins movement between 052030Z and 052130Z, but is slowed by mine clearance requirements on AoAs, allowing RF forces to consolidate the initial breach head.
3. IO Sustainment: RF IO cycles the Yermak removal, corruption allegations, and Western aid failures (Hungary/Denmark) for the next 24 hours, attempting to prevent a unified and decisive UAF counter-attack authorization.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: MEDIUM)

C2 Collapse and Operational Breakthrough.

1. Strategic C2 Failure: Internal political dynamics paralyze the NCA, resulting in no P2 commitment order, or a delayed, fragmented commitment of elements NLT 052200Z.
2. Deep Penetration: The 37th GMRB achieves deep operational penetration (>15 km), outflanking forward UAF defensive positions.
3. Logistical Severance: The Zolotonosha rail bridge is struck successfully (P4), severely degrading Class V (Ammo) resupply capability, forcing the isolated UAF forward lines to conduct an uncoordinated withdrawal.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL)

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1. Operational Maneuver and Fires (J3 / G2)

ACTION: INITIATE P2 MOVEMENT (PHASE RED) AND HARDEN ZOLOTONOSHA.

1. P2 Movement Order (IMMEDIATE): Authorize the Corps Commander controlling the BRAVO-BLOCK to disregard any non-essential political communications and execute movement to the designated Counter-Attack Phase Line (Phase Red). Movement must be confirmed NLT 052030Z.
2. MCLC Mandatory Lead: Re-emphasize that Mine Clearing Line Charges (MCLC) must maintain forward momentum. If MCLC is insufficient, commit Engineer-led armored bulldozers/rollers to ensure sustained mobility on the AoAs.
3. Zolotonosha AD Enhancement: Transfer available mobile AD systems (SHORAD/VADS) from the Kyiv AD umbrella to Zolotonosha if they cannot be used to engage the fixation vectors. The Zolotonosha rail hub is the immediate strategic center of gravity.

7.2. Strategic Communications (STRATCOM / NCA)

ACTION: COUNTER-NCA FRACTURE AND LEVERAGE STAVKA REFORM.

1. Neutralize Yermak Narrative (ACUTE PRIORITY): STRATCOM must immediately issue a statement (ideally from the President or MOD) framing the Yermak removal not as chaos, but as decisive wartime leadership eliminating potential internal vulnerabilities to ensure maximal focus on the MLD defense. Project stability through decisive action.
2. Weaponize Mobilization Reform: Immediately amplify the Stavka decision on guaranteed troop replenishment. Utilize frontline personnel and volunteer channels to highlight the fairness and predictability of the new system, directly undermining the RF narrative on corruption (NYT/Skorod) and poor military management (Odesa TCC).
3. Diplomatic Triage (EU/Denmark): Immediately task diplomatic teams to assess the root cause of the Hungarian block and the Danish reduction plan. This requires a high-level presidential or PM intervention to prevent further financial erosion and maintain long-term sustainment.

7.3. Legal and Strategic (NCA / Legal)

1. POW Crime Documentation: Prioritize rapid verification and documentation of the alleged war crime involving mined POW bodies in Kursk. This atrocity must be immediately presented to the International Criminal Court and allied governments to leverage additional pressure and sanctioning capabilities against the RF.

//END OF JISR//