Situation Report

JOINT INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (JISR) 25-12-05/088

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TIME: 051935Z DEC 2025 SUBJECT: STEPNOHORSK MLD H-HOUR MINUS 1 HOUR 25 MINUTES. P2 COMMITMENT WINDOW EXPIRED. CRITICAL NEW STRATEGIC RISK: CHERNOBYL NSC DEGRADATION. PRIORITY: P1 Neutralize RMAO Threat (IMMEDIATE); P2 Confirm/Force BRAVO-BLOCK Commitment (CRITICAL); P9 Counter NCA Destabilization (ACUTE).

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The operational picture is rapidly approaching H-Hour for the Stepnohorsk Main Land Drive (MLD), NLT 052100Z. RF efforts continue to synchronize kinetic pressure across multiple fronts to support the main thrust.

• Zaporizhzhia Direction (MLD Axis): RF 37th GMRB remains in final assembly areas near Orekhov. No confirmation of the BRAVO-BLOCK (P2) execute order being actioned by the critical 051930Z deadline. JUDGEMENT: We must assume P2 movement is currently delayed or stalled due to NCA paralysis (P9), increasing the risk of successful MLD penetration.
• Widespread Kinetic Activity: RF strikes continue across the deep rear. Damage confirmed in Kryvyi Rih civilian infrastructure (multiple high-rises, homes, utilities) following a recent strike. This confirms RF intent to maintain nationwide pressure concurrent with the MLD.
• Northern/Eastern Fixation: Confirmed persistent hostile UAS activity targeting Chernihiv, Slavutych, Ripky, and Terny (Sumy region). These are assessed as high-priority fixation efforts intended to keep UAF AD assets dispersed away from the critical Zolotonosha logistical hub (P4).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

No significant changes. Clear conditions continue to favor RF ISR and deep strike operations.

CRITICAL STRATEGIC RISK (NEW): The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reports that the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant (ChNPP) New Safe Confinement (NSC) structure has lost safety functions and requires comprehensive restoration. This introduces a major non-kinetic strategic crisis and potential long-term resource drain.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The BRAVO-BLOCK (P2) is the decisive factor. If the order has not been executed, the UAF forward defense structure is critically exposed to the RF "breach-and-block" tactic utilizing Kuryer UGVs and Mangas RMAO. The operational reserve must be considered immobile until confirmed movement.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Overall Intent: Achieve mechanized breakthrough at Stepnohorsk and simultaneously fracture UAF national resolve and logistics.

• MLD Concentration: RF maintains concentration of forces (37th GMRB/VDV) supported by integrated AD (Tor-M2) and complex RMAO/UGV capabilities (Mangas/Kuryer). The failure of UAF P2 to move on time will be interpreted by RF command as a confirmation of IO success (P9).
• Advanced Target Fixation: The confirmed, continuous multi-directional UAS activity (Northern, Eastern, Central) demonstrates a mature ability to task-saturate UAF AD and obscure the primary logistical target (Zolotonosha, P4).
• Tactical Claims in Dnipropetrovsk: RF military correspondents claim advances near Myrnohrad and in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. JUDGEMENT: These claims are currently assessed as complementary Information Operations designed to maximize UAF C2 confusion and divert attention from the Stepnohorsk main effort. Confirmation of real maneuver is pending.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

No new tactical changes confirmed since the integrated use of Tor-M2 and NRTK UGV/RMAO. RF continues to utilize large-scale kinetic strikes on civilian infrastructure (Kryvyi Rih) to degrade UAF morale and divert emergency resources.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

Long-term RF constraints are confirmed: Minister Manturov's announcement regarding the readiness to accept unlimited Indian labor migrants highlights a severe and chronic domestic skilled labor shortage in Russia, which will inevitably impact defense production and long-term sustainment capacity.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

RF C2 remains highly effective in synchronizing kinetic operations (MLD, fixation strikes) with the Information Environment (P9), successfully generating conditions for UAF C2 paralysis at the strategic level. Domestically, RF is using arrests (Schlossberg) and celebrity distractions (Dolina) to maintain narrative control during the Stepnohorsk offensive.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

• NCA Cohesion Response: Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi provided critical counter-IO by reaffirming, "We will not surrender our territories, we are fighting for this," directly contradicting the RF narrative of political division. This response is vital but must be immediately followed by the kinetic decision (P2 execution).
• Deep Strike Maintenance: UAF deep strike capability is confirmed operational, evidenced by the reported drone strike in the industrial zone of occupied Alchevsk.
• Morale Operations: Domestic channels are actively promoting Volunteer Day, reinforcing the narrative of domestic support and collective resilience against the timing of the RF offensive.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Tactical Setback (Siversk Direction): Reports of a war crime committed by RF forces against a surrendering UAF soldier near Sviatove-Pokrovske (Siversk direction) represent a significant moral and psychological setback, requiring immediate documentation and diplomatic action.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CRITICAL)

The immediate constraint is the psychological and political willingness to commit the BRAVO-BLOCK (P2). The operational timeline margin has evaporated.

New Strategic Constraint: The IAEA warning regarding the Chernobyl NSC safety functions will require substantial financial, technical, and engineering resources, potentially diverting high-value assets and international attention from immediate kinetic needs.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

The Information Environment remains at ACUTE CRITICAL status, primarily due to the timing of P9 coinciding with the P2 decision point.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

MLD H-Hour (052100Z) is imminent. The primary variable is the status of the P2 reserve.

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

Immediate MLD Success/Limited Penetration, Followed by Containment.

1. Exploitation of Delay: RF launches the MLD (37th GMRB) at 052100Z. Due to the failure/delay of the P2 commitment, RF achieves localized operational penetration (8-12 km) at the Stepnohorsk breach point, utilizing UGV/RMAO to rapidly block initial UAF reserve movement.
2. Logistical Strain: The P4 strike on Zolotonosha achieves partial success, hitting POL storage, forcing the UAF to commence limited rationing of Class III (Fuel) during the counter-attack phase, but not completely severing the rail artery.
3. IO Diversion: RF successfully utilizes the Chernobyl NSC crisis in international media to divert attention from the Stepnohorsk offensive and slow Western military support delivery decisions.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

Operational Breakthrough and Isolation of Southern Front.

1. Strategic Paralysis: P2 is held indefinitely past 052100Z. The 37th GMRB achieves deep operational penetration (>15 km) and isolates key elements of the UAF forward defense.
2. Logistical Collapse: The P4 strike successfully destroys the Zolotonosha rail bridge. Without P2 commitment and without Class V (Ammo) resupply, UAF forces along the Southern Front are forced into tactical withdrawal under highly unfavorable conditions.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL)

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1. Operational Maneuver and Fires (J3 / G2)

ACTION: P2 EXECUTION IS MANDATORY. BYPASS C2 PARALYSIS IF NECESSARY.

1. Enforce P2 Execution (IMMEDIATE): If the centralized order has not been actioned, authorize the regional or corps-level commander of the BRAVO-BLOCK to commence movement to the designated counter-attack AoAs immediately (NLT 051945Z). Risk of political fallout is secondary to kinetic defeat.
2. Mine Clearance Priority (Mandatory): Reiterate to P2 ground commanders that Mine Clearing Line Charges (MCLC) must lead all mechanized elements due to the "Mangas" RMAO threat. Assume all rear routes are compromised.
3. Air Defense Reallocation: AD assets currently deployed to defend Zolotonosha (P4) must be maintained. Do not divert resources to engage RF claims of advances in Dnipropetrovsk (Myrnohrad) until confirmed by reliable ISR.

7.2. Strategic Communications (STRATCOM / NCA)

ACTION: COUNTER-P9 CAMPAIGN (UNITY) AND MANAGE CHERNOBYL RISK.

1. NCA C2 Integrity (ACUTE PRIORITY): Immediately leverage Syrskyi’s statement ("We will not surrender territories") and combine it with a public confirmation of the P2 reserve movement. The narrative must transition from "we are unified" to "we are acting."
2. Chernobyl Risk Management (STRATEGIC PRIORITY): STRATCOM must engage Western partners and the IAEA to publicly request immediate international technical and financial support for the ChNPP NSC repair. Frame the NSC degradation as a consequence of RF aggression and occupation destabilization, maintaining pressure on Moscow.
3. Document War Crimes: Prioritize the public documentation and dissemination of the alleged Siversk war crime (after verification) to international legal bodies and media, leveraging the moment of RF offensive action to amplify negative global sentiment.

7.3. Legal and Strategic (NCA / Legal)

1. Labor Shortage Exploitation: Task intelligence units to begin monitoring the flow of Indian (or other foreign) labor migrants into Russia. This influx represents a vulnerability (potential for internal friction, infrastructure strain) that can be exploited by influence operations aimed at degrading long-term RF stability.

//END OF JISR//