JOINT INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (JISR) 25-12-05/087
TIME: 051905Z DEC 2025
SUBJECT: STEPNOHORSK MLD H-HOUR MINUS 1 HOUR 55 MINUTES. NCA IO ATTACK REACHING PARALYSIS THRESHOLD. RF AD RECONNAISSANCE CONFIRMED.
PRIORITY: P1 Neutralize RMAO Threat (IMMEDIATE); P2 Commit BRAVO-BLOCK (CRITICAL); P9 Counter NCA Destabilization (ACUTE).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
The operational situation remains critically focused on the imminent Stepnohorsk MLD (NLT 052100Z). The critical decision window for committing the operational reserve (P2) is closing rapidly.
- Zaporizhzhia Direction (MLD Axis): RF 37th GMRB is confirmed to be under active Tor-M2 air defense (AD) cover in the Orekhov direction (19:00Z), indicating forward deployment and final systems checks prior to MLD launch. This provides layered protection for the mechanized columns.
- Northern/Eastern Directions (Fixation): RF is actively running multiple UAS fixation vectors against Northern/Eastern High Value Targets (HVT). Confirmed UAS movements toward Chernihiv (18:52Z) and Kharkiv (18:56Z) are assessed as classic fixation efforts intended to draw UAF AD resources away from the primary logistical target at Zolotonosha (P4).
- Deep Battle (P4 Vector Shift): UAF deep strike capability is confirmed active, indicated by the urgent UAV threat warnings issued by RF authorities across Lipetsk Oblast (18:36Z). This confirms RF is on high alert for UAF retaliation following the Grozny strike.
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
No change. Clear conditions favoring RF ISR and Deep Strike. SATCOM/C2 vulnerability remains elevated due to the confirmed solar event warning (See JISR 086).
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
The commitment of the Hryshyne stabilization force (P8) must be confirmed immediately, and the BRAVO-BLOCK (P2) must receive its final execute order NLT 051930Z to meet the MLD counter-attack timeline. The primary current risk is C2 decision-making delay caused by RF Information Operations (IO).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Overall Intent: Achieve localized mechanized breakthrough in Zaporizhzhia (Stepnohorsk), paralyze UAF operational response through high-impact IO (P9), and disrupt UAF sustainment via targeted deep strike (P4).
- Integrated Protection for MLD: The confirmed use of the Tor-M2 system by the Dnepr Group of Forces near Orekhov (19:00Z) demonstrates integrated air defense planning for the 37th GMRB assault. This complicates UAF Suppression of Enemy Air Defense (SEAD) and Close Air Support (CAS) in the counter-attack phase.
- Technological Advancement: RF continues to deploy advanced battlefield technology, confirmed by the observation of the NRTK Unmanned Ground Vehicle (UGV) by the 4th Brigade (19:03Z). This reinforces the "breach-and-block" tactic utilizing both Kuryer UGVs and Mangas RMAO.
- P9 IO Escalation: The RF psychological operation targeting the NCA through Colonelcassad (18:45Z) amplifying rumors of occult practices by Presidential Chief of Staff Yermak has crossed the threshold into extreme, personalized psychological warfare. JUDGMENT: This escalation is timed specifically to maximize absurdity and internal friction, delaying the P2 decision point.
2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
The synchronized use of UGV/RMAO technology coupled with confirmed layered AD (Tor-M2) suggests a well-rehearsed, integrated offensive package designed to overcome UAF maneuver speed and deep fires advantage. RF is prioritizing force protection for the main mechanized thrust.
2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
Long-term RF logistics are under increasing international pressure. Reports indicate the EU/G7 are discussing replacing the oil price cap with a full ban on maritime transport services (18:42Z, 18:53Z). While RF has created a significant "shadow fleet" (18:45Z) to mitigate sanctions, this proposed measure represents a substantial escalation that would increase long-term operational costs and supply uncertainty for RF.
2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
RF C2 is demonstrating highly effective synchronization between kinetic assets (Tor-M2 deployment, UAS fixation) and cognitive targeting (P9 IO campaign), achieving acute pressure on the UAF decision cycle.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- Long-Term Sustainability: Ukrainian military and political channels are focusing on long-term sustainability and morale, evidenced by the announcement of new military contract legislation (18:34Z) and celebrating Volunteer Day (18:51Z). This maintains an operational narrative of enduring commitment despite immediate threats.
- C2 Integrity (CRITICAL): The integrity of the NCA is the single most urgent vulnerability due to the acute P9 IO effort. Failure to rapidly counteract the personalized attacks will likely lead to indecision regarding the critical P2 commitment.
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
No major changes in kinetic status since 051845Z. The operational initiative rests with RF until the UAF P2 (BRAVO-BLOCK) is committed.
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CRITICAL)
The commitment of P2 (BRAVO-BLOCK) remains the critical constraint. Movement must commence within the next 25 minutes (NLT 051930Z) to ensure tactical relevance against the MLD.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
The Information Environment remains at ACUTE CRITICAL status (P9).
| Domain | Finding (FACT/Judgment) | Confidence | Operational Impact |
|---|
| P9: NCA Acute Destabilization | RF disinformation amplifies personalized rumors of Presidential Chief of Staff Yermak engaging in occult practices (18:45Z). | HIGH | Immediate Threat of C2 Paralysis. This highly absurd and personalized attack is designed to create distrust within the High Command and delay the final decision to commit P2 (BRAVO-BLOCK), enabling MLD success. |
| Fixation/Distraction IO | RF military correspondent channels continue to push the narrative of high-level disagreement within UAF regarding territorial concessions (19:00Z). | HIGH | Supports the overall RF IO effort by generating friction between the military and political leadership during the crisis period. |
| International Support (Financial) | EU meeting on RF asset expropriation failed (18:35Z). Conversely, G7/EU discuss a massive escalation in oil sanctions (maritime ban) (18:42Z). | MEDIUM | Short-term failure on asset seizure is a minor RF IO win; long-term, the potential for a maritime transport ban signals continued severe Western economic pressure. |
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
The next 25 minutes are decisive for the outcome of the Stepnohorsk operation.
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
RF successfully executes its integrated plan, achieving limited breach success but suffering high casualties due to delayed UAF counter-attack.
- Delayed P2 Commitment: The IO campaign (P9) causes a crucial 30-45 minute delay in the final order to commit the BRAVO-BLOCK (P2). RF 37th GMRB utilizes this window to secure the MLD breach and establish defensive depth, protected by Tor-M2 AD.
- P4 Disruption: The RF retaliatory strike (Grozny Response) successfully lands critical strikes near Zolotonosha, primarily targeting POL or Class III storage, forcing UAF to implement severe rationing on Class V (Ammo) consumption during the counter-attack phase.
- Hryshyne Fixation Success: The P8 stabilization force is committed, but the RF exploitation force holds the line, successfully fixing UAF reserves in the eastern sector and preventing their redeployment.
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
RF achieves a decisive operational breakthrough due to NCA paralysis and logistical failure.
- C2 Collapse and MLD Breakthrough: NCA decision-making halts due to internal friction caused by P9. The P2 reserve is held past 052100Z. The 37th GMRB, utilizing UGV/RMAO superiority, achieves operational penetration (>15 km) and isolates the forward Stepnohorsk defenders.
- Strategic Isolation: The P4 Grozny retaliatory strike successfully destroys the Zolotonosha rail bridge. Simultaneously, the persistent UAS fixation efforts (Chernihiv/Kharkiv) successfully deplete forward mobile AD, leaving the Dnipro/Kamianske logistics hubs vulnerable to secondary strikes.
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL - NO MARGIN FOR ERROR)
| Event | Estimated Time Frame | Decision Point | Status |
|---|
| P4: RF Retaliatory Strike (Grozny Response) | NLT 051915Z | Confirmed launch detection; AD assets engaged. | CRITICAL LOGISTICS DEFENSE |
| P8: Hryshyne Stabilization Force Deployment | 051900Z (Confirmed) | Confirmation of physical movement and establishment of defensive positions. | CRITICAL MANEUVER ACTION - EXECUTE NOW |
| P2: BRAVO-BLOCK Committed (Final Execute Order) | NLT 051930Z | Final execute order for mechanized assault elements. THIS IS THE CRITICAL DECISION POINT AFFECTED BY P9. | CRITICAL KINETIC |
| P1: RMAO Neutralization Confirmation | NLT 051945Z | Confirmation that MCLC/EW coverage is established along primary AoAs. | CRITICAL MANEUVER ENABLER |
| MLD Launch Confirmation | NLT 052100Z | H-Hour. | CRITICAL KINETIC |
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
| Priority | Gap Description | Required Action | Confidence Impact |
|---|
| P1 (CRITICAL - RMAO/EW) | "MANGAS" UAS C2 Frequencies and FOLs. Still the primary tactical gap. Location of the C2 nodes is critical for deep strike targeting. | IMMEDIATE ELINT/SIGINT Tasking: Continuous spectrum analysis (1.8GHz-2.4GHz) along BRAVO-BLOCK AoAs. Focus interception on known Orekhov/Tokmak sectors. | CRITICAL |
| P2 (KINETIC/SEAD) | Tor-M2 Deployment Status. Specific location (Grid Reference) and operational status of the Tor-M2 systems identified near Orekhov. | IMMEDIATE IMINT/ISR Tasking: Prioritized high-resolution surveillance of the 37th GMRB assembly area to confirm AD placement for SEAD planning prior to P2 launch. | CRITICAL |
| P4 (TARGETING) | Fixation vs. Primary Target. Confirmation of the intent behind the Northern UAS vectors (Chernihiv/Kharkiv). Is it purely distraction, or are specific HVTs being prioritized? | ADINT: Rapid analysis of previous UAS strike results in Northern sectors to establish pattern of life and likelihood of kinetic action versus pure fixation. | HIGH |
7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS
7.1. Operational Maneuver and Fires (J3 / G2)
ACTION: P2 EXECUTION IS NON-NEGOTIABLE. ACCEPT RISK.
- Immediate P2 Execute Order: Issue the final execute order for the BRAVO-BLOCK movement NLT 051930Z. This decision must be decoupled from the IO environment (P9). Commanders on the ground must be authorized to proceed with movement regardless of political noise.
- SEAD Planning: Immediately integrate confirmed Tor-M2 locations (Orekhov sector) into fires planning. Dedicated SEAD assets (HARM, UAVs) must be prepped to suppress RF AD upon P2 movement initiation to mitigate the risk to UAF CAS/ISR.
- Mine Clearance Priority: Reinforce the requirement for Mine Clearing Line Charges (MCLC) to lead the BRAVO-BLOCK formation along all confirmed AoAs due to the active "Mangas" RMAO threat (P1).
7.2. Strategic Communications (STRATCOM / NCA)
ACTION: COUNTER-P9 CAMPAIGN MUST LAUNCH IMMEDIATELY.
- NCA Defense (ACUTE PRIORITY): The NCA must issue a unified, high-impact public statement (preferably a joint statement featuring the Commander-in-Chief and a key political figure) within the next 15 minutes. The statement must directly mock and dismiss the occult/flight rumors as "pathetic, desperate Russian PSYOPS timed to prevent our military counter-attack," emphasizing the unity of command.
- Focus Shift: STRATCOM should shift the domestic narrative focus from internal political crises to the confirmed effectiveness of UAF deep strikes (e.g., highlighting the Lipetsk alert) to boost morale and counter the perception of strategic impotence.
7.3. Air Defense (J3/AD)
ACTION: IGNORE NORTHERN FIXATION. DEFEND ZOLOTONOSHA.
- AD Focus: Maintain the concentration of mobile AD assets (Gepard/VADS) at the Zolotonosha rail junction (P4). Treat the UAS vectors toward Chernihiv and Kharkiv as successful RF distraction efforts. Only commit minimal SHORAD to the northern areas to prevent critical infrastructure damage, but do not strip Zolotonosha.
- Tor-M2 Threat Mitigation: Ensure all UAF UAV/ISR assets operating over the Stepnohorsk AoA are aware of the confirmed Tor-M2 coverage near Orekhov and adjust flight profiles accordingly.
//END OF JISR//
