Situation Report

JOINT INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (JISR) 25-12-05/086

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TIME: 051845Z DEC 2025 SUBJECT: STEPNOHORSK MLD H-HOUR MINUS 2 HOURS 15 MINUTES. NCA IO ATTACK REACHING ACUTE PHASE. RF KRAMATORSK FIXATION CONFIRMED. PRIORITY: P1 Neutralize RMAO Threat (IMMEDIATE); P8 Contain Hryshyne Exploit (CRITICAL); P9 Counter NCA Destabilization (ACUTE).

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The operational situation is characterized by the convergence of kinetic, logistical, and cognitive threats, all focused on the imminent Stepnohorsk MLD (NLT 052100Z).

• Zaporizhzhia Direction (MLD Axis): RF 37th GMRB remains in final assault positions. The success of the BRAVO-BLOCK counter-attack is wholly dependent on immediate and effective neutralization of "Mangas" RMAO along the designated Avenues of Approach (AoAs) NLT 051930Z.
• Donetsk Direction (Pokrovsk/Hryshyne): The RF exploitation push is confirmed as sustained. New RF Information Operations (IO) suggest activation of forces threatening the Kramatorsk axis (18:26Z). JUDGMENT: This confirms RF intent to expand the operational penetration, necessitating immediate deployment of P8 holding forces.
• Deep Battle (P4 Vector Shift): The logistical center of gravity remains Zolotonosha. However, a new active UAV vector toward Dnipro/Kamianske (18:27Z) demonstrates RF intent to diversify and overwhelm UAF Air Defense (AD) assets. Activation of AD in Lipetsk Oblast (RF, 18:27Z) confirms high alert status for UAF deep strikes.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Clear conditions persist, favoring RF ISR and Deep Strike.

• Space Weather Warning (New): TASS reports a major solar spot complex passing Earth-Sun line (18:30Z). IMPACT: This increases the risk of geomagnetic storm interference with Satellite Communication (SATCOM), HF, and UAV Command and Control (C2) within the next 24-48 hours. UAF C2 nodes must be prepared for temporary comms degradation.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

UAF maneuver planning remains dominated by the critical need to release the BRAVO-BLOCK operational reserve while simultaneously stabilizing the Hryshyne (P8) flank. Decision-making authority is under acute strain due to coordinated RF IO targeting the National Command Authority (NCA).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Overall Intent: Achieve MLD success via mechanized assault, exploit the Hryshyne penetration, and strategically paralyze Ukrainian operational response through kinetic overwhelming and acute NCA destabilization (P9).

• Grozny Retaliation (Imminent): High-level Chechen and affiliated military sources (Kadyrov, Alex Parker Returns, 18:12Z, 18:23Z, 18:30Z) have escalated rhetoric following the Grozny strike, promising a rapid and specific "gift" or "answer." JUDGMENT: This confirms extreme emotional commitment to a high-volume retaliatory strike (P4) within the MLD window (051900Z - 052100Z).
• Kramatorsk Threat Vector: RF military correspondents are pushing the narrative of activated forces threatening Kramatorsk (18:26Z). JUDGMENT: This is likely a secondary fixation effort supporting the primary exploitation push toward Hryshyne, intended to tie up UAF reserves in the eastern Donetsk sector.
• Aviation/Fires: Confirmed artillery strikes by Tula VDV against UAF concentration points in Sumy region (18:14Z). This confirms RF is maintaining pressure to fix UAF forces away from the Southern Front.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

The diversification of the deep strike vector (UAV movement toward Dnipro/Kamianske) suggests RF is attempting to bypass concentrated UAF AD protecting the Zolotonosha axis, or targeting alternative high-value industrial/logistics hubs. This requires dynamic AD reallocation.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

Long-term RF labor strain is confirmed by official reports of a 5 million person labor deficit requiring import of Indian workers (18:19Z). IMPACT: This reinforces the structural long-term vulnerability of the Russian economy to sustained warfare but has no immediate tactical impact on the MLD.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

RF C2 remains synchronized, achieving tactical IO and kinetic coordination targeting UAF decision-makers at the most critical time (H-2 hours).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

• Adaptive Defense (Air Force): Reports indicate UAF Air Force is preparing tactical adaptations for the incoming F-16 fleet, specifically using lower-cost solutions (Hydra-70 guidance kits) for high-volume Shahed interception (18:20Z). This is a positive indicator of long-term operational sustainability planning.
• C2 Integrity: NCA integrity is the main vulnerability. RF IO is specifically targeting key personnel (Yermak) with extreme, personalized rumors (occult practices, flight preparation rumors, 18:12Z, 18:17Z) designed to discredit and cause internal paralysis.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

No major change in kinetic status since 051815Z. The operational window for mitigating the RMAO threat (P1) is closing rapidly.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CRITICAL)

The allocation of the holding force (P8) to Hryshyne and the initiation of the BRAVO-BLOCK (P2) are non-negotiable within the next 45 minutes to meet the MLD counter-attack timeline.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

The Information Environment remains at ACUTE CRITICAL status (P9), focused on paralyzing the NCA prior to MLD H-Hour.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

The critical action window is now T-minus 2 hours 15 minutes to MLD H-Hour. UAF decisions in the next 45 minutes will determine the outcome of the Stepnohorsk counter-attack.

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

RF executes a synchronized kinetic and cognitive assault, achieving limited operational success but failing to achieve breakthrough.

1. MLD Launch (052100Z): The 37th GMRB launches. MCLC/EW assets manage to clear/suppress a majority of the "Mangas" RMAO, allowing the BRAVO-BLOCK to arrive NLT T+3 hours, but the delay allows VDV/37th GMRB to secure the initial breach point (Phase Line Charlie).
2. P4 Overload: RF launches a high-volume strike package (Grozny response), targeting both Zolotonosha (High priority) and Dnipro/Kamianske (Secondary priority). UAF AD successfully defends Zolotonosha, but logistical infrastructure near Dnipro is compromised.
3. Hryshyne Consolidation: The RF exploitation force (Donetsk) consolidates its tactical position west of Pokrovsk, stopping short of Hryshyne but successfully fixing the UAF holding force (P8).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

RF achieves strategic and operational breakthroughs due to NCA paralysis and logistical failure.

1. NCA Paralysis and MLD Breakthrough: The synchronized P9 IO attack successfully paralyzes the NCA, preventing the release of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve before 052100Z. The 37th GMRB achieves operational penetration (>15 km).
2. Logistics Collapse: The Grozny retaliatory strike successfully destroys the Zolotonosha rail bridge (primary P4 target), isolating the Stepnohorsk defenders from immediate resupply and forcing Class V consumption limits during the peak of the MLD.
3. Kramatorsk Axis Activation: The RF threat against Kramatorsk is not a feint; RF forces, leveraging the momentum from Pokrovsk, bypass Hryshyne, forcing UAF to commit strategic reserves intended for the Southern Front to prevent the collapse of the Donbas salient.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL)

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1. Operational Maneuver and Fires (J3 / G2)

ACTION: EXECUTE CRITICAL DECISIONS P8 AND P2 NLT 051930Z.

1. Immediate Deployment (P8): Confirm the Hryshyne stabilization force (1x BTG equivalent) is executing its movement order immediately (NLT 051900Z) to establish defensive positions (vicinity Myrnohrad AoA) and contain the Pokrovsk exploitation.
2. Maneuver Execute (P2): Issue the final execute order for the BRAVO-BLOCK movement (NLT 051930Z). Require MCLC and heavily armored EW assets to lead the column. Risk mitigation via maneuver must be prioritized over absolute risk elimination.
3. Dynamic AD Prioritization (P4): Maintain Zolotonosha rail junction as the primary AD focus. Simultaneously, immediately task available SHORAD (VADS/Gepard) to defend the highest-value industrial or logistics targets in the Dnipro/Kamianske AoA in response to the confirmed UAV vector.

7.2. Strategic Communications (STRATCOM / NCA)

ACTION: IMMEDIATE AND AGGRESSIVE COUNTER-P9 CAMPAIGN.

1. NCA Defense (ACUTE): The highest levels of the NCA must immediately issue a unified, high-impact public statement (video/live broadcast preferred) refuting the Yermak occult/flight rumors as "malicious, desperate Russian psychological warfare timed to distract from the impending assault." Use humor or strong moral condemnation to delegitimize the extreme claims.
2. Military Cohesion: Use UAF Official channels to counter the "Madyar" dissent narrative by emphasizing unit cohesion and the unified resolve of the High Command (Syrsky/Zaluzhnyi) against RF aggression.

7.3. Electronic Warfare (J6)

ACTION: MAXIMIZE EW COVERAGE ON BRAVO-BLOCK ROUTE AND PREPARE FOR SOLAR EVENT.

1. EW Corridor: Ensure dedicated, high-power EW platforms are moving to establish and maintain jamming coverage over the BRAVO-BLOCK AoAs (P1) NLT 051930Z, specifically prioritizing disruption in the 1.8-2.4 GHz spectrum against "Mangas" C2.
2. Comms Preparedness: Alert all forward C2 nodes and deep strike assets (UAV/Drone units) to the potential for SATCOM/VHF degradation due to the solar event. Implement redundant communications protocols (e.g., HF backup) immediately.

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