Situation Report

JOINT INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (JISR) 25-12-05/085

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TIME: 051815Z DEC 2025 SUBJECT: STEPNOHORSK MLD H-HOUR MINUS 3 HOURS. POKROVSK EXPLOITATION SUSTAINED. RF IO TARGETING NCA COHESION CRITICAL. PRIORITY: P1 Neutralize RMAO Threat (IMMEDIATE); P8 Contain Hryshyne Exploit (CRITICAL); P9 Counter NCA Destabilization (URGENT).

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The operational picture is stable but deteriorating in the Donetsk sector, while the kinetic threat in Zaporizhzhia is reaching culmination.

• Zaporizhzhia Direction (MLD Axis): RF 37th GMRB is confirmed in final assault positions, awaiting MLD launch NLT 052100Z. The critical terrain is the counter-attack corridor for the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve, which remains compromised by "Mangas" RMAO (Rapid Mine-laying Operations).
• Donetsk Direction (Pokrovsk/Hryshyne): Localized RF tactical advance and ongoing military activity near Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) are confirmed (17:35Z), sustaining the exploitation vector toward Hryshyne. The threat is transitioning from a breach to a sustained, deeper operational penetration.
• Deep Battle (P4 Vector): UAV activity confirmed in eastern Kyiv Oblast (Boryspil/Brovary, 17:47Z). This supports the assessment that RF is executing a fixation effort to draw UAF AD assets away from the priority target (Zolotonosha).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Clear conditions prevail, continuing to favor high-altitude ISR, deep strike operations (UAV/KAB), and RF counter-mobility efforts (RMAO).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

UAF resources remain strategically committed to the Stepnohorsk counter-attack. The J3 decision to allocate holding forces to the Hryshyne sector (P8) must be executed immediately, as tactical gains by RF near Pokrovsk confirm sustained enemy momentum.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Overall Intent: Achieve localized kinetic breakthrough at Stepnohorsk and operational penetration at Hryshyne, while achieving strategic paralysis in Kyiv through coordinated, high-level disinformation (P9).

• Kinetic Retaliation (Grozny Response): Following the deep strike on Grozny, RF sources (Kadyrov, 17:34Z, 18:03Z) confirm the intent to execute rapid, high-impact retaliation ("gift," "answer") and minimize the attack's strategic effect by framing it as a sign of AFU weakness.
• Deep Fire Escalation: Pro-RF channels are hinting at preparations for large-scale conventional strikes, citing "several dozen tons of warhead mass" (17:38Z). JUDGMENT: This confirms high probability of an impending high-volume strike package (Missile/KAB) aimed at either Zolotonosha (P4) or strategic infrastructure in response to the Grozny attack.
• Strategic Pre-Conditioning: RF sources are actively linking the MLD launch to official political demands, stating the SVO will continue if Kyiv rejects Moscow’s peace conditions (17:45Z). This prepares the information environment for RF success by defining Ukrainian resistance as the cause of further conflict.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1. Sustained Exploitation: RF has successfully sustained the tactical momentum west of Pokrovsk (17:35Z), confirming adequate immediate reserves were committed to the exploitation phase.
2. North Korean Equipment Use: UAF forces successfully destroyed a Type 75 MLRS (North Korean origin) (17:40Z). JUDGMENT: This confirms the integration of foreign-supplied systems into RF combat operations, highlighting a need for updated targeting data and threat profiles.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

Logistical pressure (Temryuk fuel shortage) remains a critical weakness for RF in the Southern Group of Forces (SGF). However, the immediate exploitation effort near Pokrovsk demonstrates sufficient short-term fuel and Class V (Ammunition) availability for committed forces.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

While high-level C2 remains synchronized (coordinating MLD, IO, and deep strikes), internal RF state media (Solovyov, 17:59Z) reveals significant friction in domestic support and mid-level bureaucratic execution of the SVO. JUDGMENT: This operational friction may introduce delays or inconsistencies in RF follow-on force commitment, creating potential windows for UAF counter-action, particularly against logistics trains.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

UAF maintains high readiness for the Stepnohorsk counter-attack. NCA demonstrated an ability to balance domestic stability (commemorations, mobilization deferment simplification, 17:34Z) with the ongoing military crisis.

• Vulnerability (Operational): The time gap between RMAO neutralization/MCLC deployment (P1) and the MLD H-Hour (052100Z) is narrowing to less than 3 hours. The BRAVO-BLOCK must move immediately or risk being committed too late.
• Success (Tactical/Fires): Confirmed destruction of the RF Type 75 MLRS (17:40Z) demonstrates effective local ISR and drone integration by UAF brigades (63rd Brigade).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

• SETBACK (Maneuver): Confirmed sustained RF advance near Pokrovsk, necessitating immediate commitment of holding forces to prevent operational collapse in the Donetsk sector.
• SUCCESS (Fires): Confirmed destruction of newly identified North Korean RF asset.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CRITICAL)

The immediate allocation of EW/MCLC assets to the Stepnohorsk AoAs remains paramount. The required minimum holding force for Hryshyne stabilization (P8) must be identified and deployed NLT 051900Z.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

The cognitive domain has escalated to a critical level (P9), specifically targeting the coherence and trust within the Ukrainian National Command Authority (NCA).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

The short-term predictive analysis remains anchored by the 052100Z MLD launch window.

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

RF executes a synchronized multi-domain assault:

1. MLD Launch (052100Z): 37th GMRB commits to the breach at Stepnohorsk. RMAO-laid minefields successfully delay the main BRAVO-BLOCK maneuver lead elements (MCLC/EW) by T+2 hours, allowing 37th GMRB to secure and consolidate the initial forward defensive line.
2. Zolotonosha Strike (051900Z-2000Z): RF executes a multi-layered UAV/Missile strike package (P4) targeting the Zolotonosha rail junction (likely the rail bridge), causing logistical disruption NLT T+12 hours.
3. Hryshyne Consolidation: RF forces stabilize the exploitation corridor near Hryshyne, forcing UAF to divert at least one Battalion Tactical Group (BTG) from reserve planning to prevent complete defensive collapse in Donetsk.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

RF achieves strategic and operational breakthroughs:

1. NCA Paralysis and Delayed Response: The P9 disinformation campaign successfully creates enough internal doubt/friction within the NCA to delay the final release of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve until after 052100Z. The 37th GMRB achieves a deep operational penetration (15km+), forcing UAF into highly disadvantageous defensive combat.
2. Logistics Collapse: A successful Zolotonosha rail bridge strike is synchronized with RF fires cutting the primary road arteries feeding the Stepnohorsk sector, isolating the defending UAF formations from Class V resupply during the most intense phase of the MLD.
3. Hryshyne Penetration: RF forces, leveraging their established momentum, bypass Hryshyne and reach Myrnohrad, threatening to flank the remaining UAF positions in the western Donetsk salient.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL)

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1. Operational Maneuver and Fires (J3 / G2)

ACTION: INITIATE BRAVO-BLOCK MOVEMENT NLT 051930Z, ACCEPTING MINIMAL Hryshyne DIVERSION.

1. Maneuver Execution (BRAVO-BLOCK): Issue the execute order for the BRAVO-BLOCK movement at 051930Z. This must be a calculated risk: Movement with MCLC lead under continuous, high-power EW coverage is mandatory. A delayed movement poses a greater risk than movement under mitigated threat.
2. Hryshyne Stabilization (P8): Immediately confirm the availability and order the deployment of the designated holding force (1x BTG equivalent) to establish the defensive line west of Hryshyne (vicinity Myrnohrad AoA).
3. AD Prioritization (P4): Reiterate the directive: All available mobile AD assets must focus on the Zolotonosha rail junction and bridges. The Kyiv vector (Boryspil/Brovary) is a confirmed diversion.

7.2. Strategic Communications (STRATCOM / NCA)

ACTION: COUNTER NCA DESTABILIZATION AND RF PEACE NARRATIVE SIMULTANEOUSLY.

1. NCA Defense (URGENT): Immediately issue a high-level counter-disinformation package (via presidential office, MoD, and key leaders) condemning the "desperate and malicious Russian disinformation campaign designed to fracture Ukraine's leadership at a critical moment of defense." Directly refute the extreme claims (Yermak/Zaluzhnyi) using short, decisive messaging.
2. Peace Narrative Counter: Address the "FIFA Peace Prize" and "Moscow's Peace Conditions" by stating clearly that "Russia is launching its largest offensive in weeks while simultaneously fabricating peace plans. Ukraine will not negotiate under the barrel of a gun or submit to strategic manipulation."

7.3. Electronic Warfare (J6)

ACTION: MAXIMIZE EW COVERAGE AND TARGET "MANGAS" C2.

1. EW Corridor: Ensure dedicated, high-power EW platforms are moving immediately to establish and maintain jamming coverage over the BRAVO-BLOCK AoAs (P1) for the next 6 hours, prioritizing disruption in the 1.8-2.4 GHz spectrum.
2. Anti-Drone Targeting: Task fire units capable of engaging drone ground control stations to be on high alert once ELINT confirms "Mangas" FOLs.

//END OF JISR//