Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (MISREP) 25-12-05/084

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TIME: 051745Z DEC 2025 SUBJECT: STEPNOHORSK MLD IMMINENT (NLT 2100Z). POKROVSK EXPLOITATION TOWARD HRYSHYNE CONFIRMED. RF INTENSIFIES DIPLOMATIC MANIPULATION (KUSHNER PEACE NARRATIVE). PRIORITY: P1 Neutralize RMAO Threat (IMMEDIATE); P8 Contain Hryshyne Exploit (CRITICAL); P4 Defend Zolotonosha (CRITICAL).

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The operational environment remains defined by the imminent RF Main Land Drive (MLD) in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and newly exploited vulnerabilities in Donetsk Oblast.

• Zaporizhzhia Direction (MLD Axis): UAF Air Force confirms likely RF reconnaissance UAV activity south of Zaporizhzhia (17:27Z). JUDGMENT: This confirms final ISR collection prior to the committed ground phase (NLT 2100Z). The key terrain remains the AoAs leading to the BRAVO-BLOCK staging areas, currently compromised by "Mangas" RMAO.
• Donetsk Direction (Pokrovsk/Hryshyne): Multiple RF sources (17:11Z, 17:13Z) claim mechanized action west of Pokrovsk, targeting UAF defensive lines near Hryshyne (Grishino). This validates the assessment of a significant setback and RF intent to exploit depth toward Myrnohrad. Hryshyne now represents a critical stabilizing point.
• RF Deep Battle: Confirmed successful drone strike (presumably UAF) on a high-value, high-visibility internal RF target in Grozny-City complex (17:31Z). This demonstrates extended deep strike capability and forces RF security resources to focus internally.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Clear conditions persist, continuing to favor high-altitude reconnaissance (UAV), deep fixed-wing strikes (KAB), and RMAO deployment, particularly in the Stepnohorsk area.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

UAF resources are increasingly strained by the dual requirement to prepare for the Stepnohorsk MLD counter-attack while simultaneously addressing the expanding crisis in the Donetsk direction (Hryshyne). The commitment of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve hinges entirely on successful RMAO neutralization.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Overall Intent: Achieve a breach at Stepnohorsk NLT 2100Z, while maximizing political destabilization through a high-profile IO campaign targeting international support and leveraging the developing tactical success in the Pokrovsk sector.

• Strategic Deception/IO: RF officials (Ushakov) are actively propagating the narrative that Jared Kushner may be formulating future peace plans (17:06Z, 17:33Z), supported by Trump’s statements (17:16Z, 17:30Z). JUDGMENT: This is a coordinated psychological operation aimed at:
  1. Delegitimizing official US government channels (State Dept/DoD).
  2. Creating pressure within the NATO alliance and Kyiv to consider premature concessions during a critical kinetic phase.
• Kinetic Synchronization: The RF MoD strike targeting the C2 of the UAF Lyut Assault Brigade (17:31Z) demonstrates effective deep targeting aimed at preemptively disrupting UAF counter-offensive planning and C2 integrity near the primary MLD axis.
• Internal Consolidation: The detention of opposition politician Lev Shlosberg (17:08Z, 17:28Z) confirms an internal Russian move to consolidate political support and suppress dissent ahead of the winter campaigning season, signaling long-term commitment to the war effort.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1. Pokrovsk Exploitation: The shift from securing Pokrovsk to actively engaging UAF defenses near Hryshyne is a tactical adaptation, confirming RF intent to rapidly exploit the breach and expand the area of vulnerability in Donetsk before UAF can establish a new linear defense line.
2. Drone Swarm/Security Response: The drone strike on Grozny forces RF C2 to allocate resources (security, C2 review) to deep internal defense, slightly reducing RF focus on front-line C2 synchronization.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

No change in assessment. The Temryuk fuel shortage (T+48-72 hours) remains the primary pressure point, reinforcing the RF need for immediate success at Stepnohorsk. Logistics for the exploiting forces moving past Pokrovsk toward Hryshyne will be temporarily stretched, creating a potential interdiction target (P8).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

RF C2 is effectively managing multi-domain operations, simultaneously coordinating the MLD, deep kinetic strikes, and a sophisticated strategic IO campaign targeting US/NATO cohesion.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

UAF forces are maintaining localized tactical effectiveness in the Donetsk sector, as evidenced by the successful engagement reported by the Ivan Franko Group (17:09Z). This demonstrates critical resilience despite the setback at Pokrovsk.

• Vulnerability (Operational): The decision window for resource allocation between Stepnohorsk (MLD) and Hryshyne (Exploitation) is closing rapidly. Misallocation of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve could lead to the collapse of either front.
• Risk (RMAO): The fundamental constraint remains the "Mangas" RMAO threat to counter-attack corridors. Until MCLC/EW assets confirm clear AoAs, the BRAVO-BLOCK movement remains high-risk.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

• SUCCESS (Deep Strike): Unconfirmed but highly probable UAF deep strike reaching the Grozny-City complex (17:31Z). This is a critical strategic signal that UAF can impose costs on high-value internal RF targets.
• SETBACK (Maneuver): Confirmation of RF exploitation west of Pokrovsk toward Hryshyne (P8), requiring immediate defensive adjustment.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CRITICAL)

The immediate priority remains the deployment of MCLC and EW assets to ensure the safety of the BRAVO-BLOCK. Given the exploitation at Hryshyne, J3 must immediately define and deploy minimum holding forces to stabilize the line west of Pokrovsk, without degrading the core Stepnohorsk counter-attack capacity.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

The environment has transitioned from focusing on internal UAF friction (TCC) to strategic manipulation targeting high-level political decision-making in the West.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

RF will proceed with the synchronized kinetic and cognitive attacks:

1. MLD Launch (052100Z): 37th GMRB initiates the Stepnohorsk breach. The RMAO successfully delays the BRAVO-BLOCK deployment by T+4 hours, allowing the 37th GMRB to secure the forward defensive belt.
2. Hryshyne Exploitation: RF reinforces the advance toward Hryshyne, forcing UAF to divert resources that were intended for the Stepnohorsk deep strike defense, achieving the multi-vector crisis objective.
3. Zolotonosha Strike (Pre-MLD): RF executes a successful, partial strike on the Zolotonosha rail junction (P4) NLT 1830Z, causing logistical disruption for 12 hours.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

RF achieves strategic paralysis and deep operational penetration:

1. RMAO Success & Kinetic Breakthrough: The "Mangas" RMAO completely blocks the BRAVO-BLOCK AoAs. RF forces at Stepnohorsk achieve a deep penetration (10km+), leveraging the lack of rapid UAF counter-attack capacity.
2. Hryshyne Collapse: Failure to stabilize the defensive line near Hryshyne leads to a rapid RF advance toward Myrnohrad, isolating UAF formations defending the southern Donetsk salient and requiring the commitment of strategic reserves previously held for the North/Center.
3. Negotiation Pressure: The Kushner/Trump IO campaign successfully influences a major NATO ally to publicly call for an immediate, conditional ceasefire, pressuring Kyiv to halt the Stepnohorsk counter-attack operation prematurely.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL)

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1. Operational Maneuver and Fires (J3 / G2)

ACTION: EXECUTE BRAVO-BLOCK MOVEMENT NOW, WITH MCLC LEAD AND MINIMUM Hryshyne HOLDING FORCE.

1. BRAVO-BLOCK Movement Order: Initiate the movement of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve immediately. J3 must confirm MCLC vehicles and EW jamming assets are providing an active protected corridor for mechanized elements toward Stepnohorsk.
2. Hryshyne Force Allocation: Immediately designate and deploy a minimum holding force (maximum 1 x reinforced Battalion Tactical Group if available from adjacent sectors or TDF) to establish a firm defensive line west of Hryshyne to prevent a deep penetration toward Myrnohrad. This must be the absolute limit of resource diversion from Stepnohorsk.
3. Targeting (Donetsk): Prioritize long-range fires (MLRS/Artillery) against confirmed RF logistics and follow-on mechanized elements identified in the Pokrovsk-Hryshyne exploitation sector (P8), forcing RF to pause or slow their momentum.

7.2. Strategic Communications (STRATCOM / NCA)

ACTION: COUNTER THE KUSHNER/TRUMP NARRATIVE IMMEDIATELY AND EXPLOIT GROZNY ATTACK.

1. Kushner/Trump Counter-IO (URGENT): Release an official statement framing the reports of third-party peace plans as "Russian pre-election manipulation and psychological warfare, timed precisely to coincide with a major military offensive." Emphasize that only Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity, based on international law, are acceptable foundations for peace talks.
2. Deep Strike Amplification: STRATCOM should amplify the confirmed drone attack on Grozny (17:31Z) via international channels, highlighting the failure of RF internal security and the ability of anti-RF forces to strike high-value, protected internal targets. (Avoid explicit claim of UAF responsibility to maximize internal RF blame distribution.)

7.3. Electronic Warfare (J6)

ACTION: MAXIMIZE EW COVERAGE ON BRAVO-BLOCK AXIS.

1. EW Prioritization: Dedicate all available high-power EW systems to the confirmed AoAs for the BRAVO-BLOCK. This task must override routine surveillance duties for the next 6 hours.
2. Spectrum Search: Task ELINT/SIGINT to immediately focus search efforts on the 1.8GHz-2.4GHz bands for "Mangas" C2 links, prioritizing targeting of the ground control stations once identified (P1).

//END OF MISREP//