Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (MISREP) 25-12-05/081

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TIME: 051600Z DEC 2025 SUBJECT: MLD STEPNOHORSK: RMAO THREAT CONFIRMED. RF IO INTENSIFICATION VIA FAKE US NSS NARRATIVE THREATENS NCA COHESION. LOGISTICS INTERDICTION (P4) REMAINS CRITICAL. PRIORITY: P1 Neutralize RMAO Threat (IMMEDIATE); P7 Counter Geopolitical Disinformation (IMMEDIATE); P4 Defend Zolotonosha (CRITICAL).

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The operational environment is characterized by the convergence of kinetic deep strikes (Zolotonosha, P4), localized flank pressure (Huliaipole), and the preparation for the Main Land Drive (MLD) at Stepnohorsk (37th GMRB).

• Stepnohorsk MLD Axis (CRITICAL): The 37th GMRB remains positioned for mechanized assault NLT 052100Z. The key terrain for UAF defense is the maneuvering space for the BRAVO-BLOCK operational reserve. This space is currently subject to Rapid Mine-laying Operations (RMAO) via "Mangas" UAS, confirming a highly integrated breach-and-block tactic designed to paralyze the counter-attack.
• Huliaipole Flank (INDICATOR): Russian sources claim advances in the Huliaipole area. JUDGMENT: This confirms ongoing RF fixation or possible flanking preparation by the 38th GMRB, reinforcing the requirement to maintain ISR in the sector (P3 Gap).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Clear conditions persist, continuing to favor RF ISR and UAS platforms, specifically enabling the low-altitude, targeted deployment of "Mangas" aerial mines.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

UAF is structured defensively, but required control measures are focused entirely on mitigating the new RMAO threat to ensure the BRAVO-BLOCK maintains operational mobility.

• RF Logistics Degradation (Confirmed): Russian state media (TASS) confirms the fire at the Temryuk fuel storage facility covers 1,300 sq. meters. FACT: This validates the previous assessment that the RF Southern Group of Forces (SGF) faces a significant, time-sensitive fuel deficit, increasing the imperative for the RF to launch the MLD rapidly (NLT 2100Z).
• UAF Counter-Mobility Success (Local): Elements of the 65th Mechanized Brigade (OMBr) in the Zaporizhzhia direction claim successful strikes on RF vehicles, artillery, and enemy mine-laying efforts. JUDGMENT: This confirms UAF is already actively engaged in countering RF mobility efforts, validating the need for increased focus on counter-mining techniques.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Overall Intent: Achieve localized operational encirclement or deep penetration at Stepnohorsk before the Temryuk logistics failure becomes acute (48-72 hours). The enemy is currently executing the synchronization phase: kinetic (RMAO/P4 strikes) + cognitive (NSS disinformation).

• Logistics and Sustainment Status (Accelerated Need): The confirmed large-scale damage at Temryuk forces the RF to compress the MLD timeline. RF combat units (37th GMRB) are under extreme time pressure to secure objectives and establish forward depots before fuel supply chains break down.
• Tactical Synchronization: The simultaneous use of advanced mobility assets ("Kuryer" UGV for breach) and complex counter-mobility assets ("Mangas" UAS for block) demonstrates high C2 effectiveness at the operational level.
• C2/IO Effectiveness (New Focus): RF IO is now focusing on the strategic geopolitical domain (US NSS disinformation) to paralyze UAF National Command Authority (NCA) decisions regarding the release of the strategic reserve.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The enemy has adapted by intensifying pressure on both the operational reserve’s mobility (RMAO) and the reserve’s political authorization (NSS Disinformation). The confirmed pressure at Huliaipole suggests the 38th GMRB threat on the flank is not a pure feint and must be monitored closely.

2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

RF C2 maintains effective control over kinetic assets and high-level IO campaign synchronization targeting Western political fissures and UAF domestic morale.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

Readiness remains predicated on the timely and protected movement of the BRAVO-BLOCK.

• Vulnerability: The critical vulnerability is the delayed or fragmented commitment of the reserve force due to the RMAO threat and the potential for NCA decision paralysis driven by intense IO (Skorod/Odesa/Fake NSS).
• Strength (International): Sweden’s confirmed decision to redirect development aid towards Ukraine provides an immediate diplomatic counter-narrative to the "Western abandonment" disinformation.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

• SUCCESS (Strategic Fires): Confirmed large-scale damage at Temryuk port. This shifts the operational COG dynamics in favor of UAF attrition.
• SUCCESS (Capture/IO): Confirmed capture and interrogation of mobilized Russian convicts ("Sakura," "Toma," etc.). This provides high-value material for countering RF recruitment and morale narratives.
• SETBACK (Cognitive): The rapid spread of the Fake US NSS narrative poses an immediate threat to high-level UAF political confidence in strategic Western support.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CRITICAL)

The immediate need for MCLC and EW assets for the BRAVO-BLOCK remains paramount. This tactical requirement is time-sensitive; deployment must occur immediately to mitigate further RMAO insertion before the MLD begins.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

The Information Environment is now characterized by a sophisticated, layered RF attack targeting UAF internal cohesion and external confidence.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

RF executes the MLD sequence with maximum speed to preempt the fuel crisis:

1. P4 Strike Execution: UAV groups successfully strike the Zolotonosha rail junction (NLT 1800Z), achieving temporary logistical paralysis.
2. RMAO Completion: "Mangas" platforms successfully seed critical sectors of the UAF reserve AoAs (80% coverage) by 2000Z.
3. MLD Launch (052100Z +/- 3 hours): 37th GMRB initiates the mechanized breach at Stepnohorsk, utilizing "Kuryer" UGVs to clear immediate obstacles.
4. UAF Response (Slowed): The BRAVO-BLOCK is committed after mandatory MCLC operations, resulting in a kinetic engagement starting 2-4 hours later than ideal, allowing RF initial deep penetration (3-5km).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

RF achieves strategic paralysis through synchronized kinetic action and cognitive attack:

1. Cognitive Delay Success: The Fake NSS campaign, combined with domestic corruption issues, successfully delays the political authorization for the BRAVO-BLOCK commitment by critical 4-6 hours, achieving NCA paralysis.
2. Logistical Severance: A successful, high-damage strike on the Zolotonosha rail bridge completely severs the Southern Front supply line.
3. Exploitation: The 37th GMRB exploits the breach rapidly. Simultaneously, the increased pressure seen at Huliaipole (P3 gap) proves to be a dedicated 38th GMRB bypass maneuver, threatening a localized encirclement of Phase Line BRAVO defenses before the reserves can arrive.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL)

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1. Operational Maneuver and Fires (J3 / Engineer Corps)

ACTION: PRIORITIZE MOBILITY AND COUNTER-MOBILITY FOR THE BRAVO-BLOCK FORCE.

1. RMAO Countermeasure (IMMEDIATE): The commitment order for the BRAVO-BLOCK must stipulate a maximum speed of advance based on the slowest, forward-most de-mining element. MCLC and heavy mine rollers must lead all mechanized columns. Deploy Engineer reconnaissance assets now to define the scope of the aerial minefields.
2. EW Deployment (IMMEDIATE): Allocate two (2) additional mobile EW platforms to the BRAVO-BLOCK AoAs, operating in a staggered pattern to ensure continuous broad-spectrum denial along reserve routes, specifically targeting the suspected "Mangas" C2 bands.
3. Exploit Temryuk: Target secondary RF logistics nodes immediately. Task long-range fires (HIMARS/ATACMS) to hit identified RF Class V (Ammunition) storage caches near the 37th GMRB assembly areas to maximize pre-MLD attrition effects, compounding the RF fuel crisis.

7.2. Air Defense Allocation (J3 / AD Command)

ACTION: ABSOLUTE DEFENSE OF ZOLOTONOSHA COG.

1. P4 Focus: Maintain maximum SHORAD concentration (Gepard, VADS, SA-8) at the Zolotonosha rail junction and adjacent storage facilities. The integrity of this logistical hub is more critical than AD coverage for any distraction/feint vectors (e.g., Kyiv/Obukhiv).
2. Maximize Attrition: Utilize mobile MANPADS teams and FPV drones for opportunistic attrition against incoming UAV waves along the P4 vector, preserving the high-end SHORAD systems for high-fidelity cruise missile or fixed-wing threats.

7.3. Strategic Communications (STRATCOM / NCA)

ACTION: COUNTER STRATEGIC DISINFORMATION TO PRESERVE NCA COHESION AND INTERNATIONAL CONFIDENCE.

1. P7 Denial (IMMEDIATE - NLT 051630Z): The President or Minister of Foreign Affairs must issue an immediate, highly visible denial of the Fake US NSS document. Emphasize that the document is a hostile Russian Information Operation designed to cause panic and that Western commitments (citing the recent Swedish aid decision) remain strong.
2. Weaponize Capture: Launch a focused IO campaign utilizing the captured RF convict servicemen videos. Narrative Anchor: "Russia's army is collapsing, relying on criminals and stolen supplies while Ukraine holds the line." This narrative provides a strong counter-point to the Skorod/Odesa corruption narratives by shifting focus back to the enemy's moral and material deficit.

//END OF MISREP//