Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (MISREP) 25-12-05/072

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TIME: 051530Z DEC 2025 SUBJECT: MLD IMMINENT. THREAT ESCALATION: AERIAL MINE-LAYING (MANGAS) CONFIRMED, COMPROMISING UAF COUNTER-ATTACK ROUTES. LOGISTICS (ZOLOTONOSHA) REMAINS CRITICAL COG. PRIORITY: P1 Neutralize RMAO Threat (IMMEDIATE); P4 Defend Zolotonosha (CRITICAL); P7 Execute IO Deflection (IMMEDIATE).

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The operational environment is characterized by RF transition from deep fires preparation to kinetic ground assault setup.

• Stepnohorsk MLD Axis (CRITICAL): 37th GMRB is confirmed in final assembly areas. Key terrain is now defined by UAF rear-area maneuver corridors leading to Phase Line BRAVO. These corridors are now subject to Rapid Mine-laying Operations (RMAO) via "Mangas" UAS, confirming a synchronized RF "breach-and-block" tactic utilizing the "Kuryer" UGV for breaching followed by aerial mine deployment to sever reinforcement.
• Logistics COG (Zolotonosha): The primary RF fixation effort remains on the rail/road junction at Zolotonosha (P4). This confirms the enemy's intent to achieve operational paralysis by severing Class V (Ammunition) resupply immediately preceding the MLD launch (NLT 2100Z).
• Northern Fixation: A drone strike in the Sumy region is confirmed (15:00Z). JUDGMENT: This confirms RF intent to maintain persistent, low-level kinetic pressure on the Northern Operational Zone to prevent UAF redeployment of AD or ISR assets southward.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Clear conditions persist, supporting continued UAS/drone operations, including the low-altitude "Mangas" aerial mine-laying missions and high-altitude ISR/strike vectors targeting Zolotonosha. UAF messaging highlighting $6.01T UAH in environmental damage (15:02Z) acts as a strategic IO anchor, but does not impact current tactical kinetics.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: CRITICAL)

UAF is currently structured for the "BRAVO-BLOCK" counter-attack, but the effectiveness of this reserve is now severely degraded by the "Mangas" RMAO threat.

• RF Technological Synchronization: Public confirmation of both "Kuryer" UGVs (breaching) and active EW demonstrations against UAF drones (15:00Z) highlights the high level of technical synchronization the RF is employing to support the MLD.
• UAF Constraint: The primary constraint is speed of maneuver. The requirement to conduct dedicated de-mining operations before engaging the breach will slow the BRAVO-BLOCK formation, increasing its vulnerability to long-range fires.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Overall Intent: Achieve catastrophic operational success at Stepnohorsk by denying UAF the ability to coordinate a coherent counter-attack (RMAO) while simultaneously paralyzing defensive sustainment (Zolotonosha P4).

• Tactical Adaptation (RMAO): The deployment of "Mangas" represents a highly effective, low-cost tactical adaptation designed specifically to counter UAF operational reserves. This system turns UAF rear areas into immediate contact zones, maximizing attrition on MCLC/sapper teams.
• Logistics and Sustainment Status (Vulnerable): The destruction of the Temryuk commercial fuel storage facility (previous report) creates an immediate, high-priority logistics gap for the RF Southern Group of Forces (SGF). JUDGMENT: RF must accelerate the MLD to achieve objectives before this fuel crisis manifests (48-72 hours). This time pressure increases the probability of the 2100Z MLD launch.
• C2/IO Effectiveness: RF is actively promoting positive narratives (PSB veteran support, 15:00Z) while simultaneously facing highly visible internal corruption exposure (General Ivanov asset confiscation, 15:02Z). RF C2 remains effective kinetically but faces structural IO risks domestically.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The primary tactical change is the operationalization of the RMAO capability ("Mangas") directly against UAF operational reserves' AoAs, confirming RF readiness to commit to a complex, mechanized assault.

2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

RF C2 maintains a high operational tempo, demonstrating integrated control over deep strikes (P4), front-line mechanized assault assets (37th GMRB/Kuryer), and rear-area interdiction (Mangas).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

Readiness is predicated on the immediate re-prioritization of Engineer and Electronic Warfare assets to counter the "Mangas" threat. The political imperative to resolve the domestic IO crisis (Skorod/Odesa) remains acute, as failure to do so risks freezing NCA commitment decisions regarding the BRAVO-BLOCK reserves.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

• SUCCESS (Operational): Confirmed destruction of the Temryuk fuel storage. This must be exploited by sustaining fire on other RF logistics nodes, forcing reliance on the now-threatened Zolotonosha junction.
• SETBACK (Operational): RMAO threat confirmed on reserve AoAs. This forces a slower, more deliberate commitment of the BRAVO-BLOCK force, increasing tactical risk and time compression.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CRITICAL - EW/Engineer Assets)

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Immediate allocation of specialized Mine Clearing Line Charges (MCLC), mine rollers, and dedicated EW (Electronic Warfare) platforms to the forward echelon of the BRAVO-BLOCK force. These assets must be treated as kinetic priorities.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

The IO environment is at a critical inflection point where both sides face highly exposed internal corruption issues.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

RF executes the MLD sequence with RMAO insertion.

1. P4 Strike: UAV groups successfully strike the Zolotonosha rail junction (NLT 1800Z), achieving logistical paralysis.
2. RMAO Completion: "Mangas" platforms successfully seed minefields on 60-80% of identified UAF reserve AoAs by 2000Z.
3. MLD Launch: 37th GMRB initiates mechanized breach at Stepnohorsk (052100Z +/- 3 hours), capitalizing on the logistics failure and the stalled BRAVO-BLOCK counter-attack.
4. UAF Response: BRAVO-BLOCK is committed, but attrition is high due to engagement delay caused by mandatory de-mining operations.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

RF achieves a high-velocity mechanized breakthrough coupled with strategic command paralysis.

1. MDCOA Strike Success: A successful Zolotonosha strike is followed by a simultaneous deep strike targeting a UAF alternative C2 node using the Kyiv/Obukhiv vector (utilizing the distraction to guide a high-fidelity missile strike).
2. Internal IO Success: RF IO saturation (Skorod/Odesa/Fake NSS) successfully delays the political authorization for the BRAVO-BLOCK commitment by 4-6 hours.
3. Exploitation: The 37th GMRB achieves a depth of penetration greater than 8km before UAF reserves are released. The reserves, when finally committed, are fragmented and stalled by the "Mangas" RMAO, allowing the RF to achieve a localized encirclement of forward defensive positions near Stepnohorsk.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL)

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1. Operational Maneuver and Fires (J3 / Engineer Corps)

ACTION: MITIGATE RMAO THREAT IMMEDIATELY TO ENSURE COHERENT COUNTER-ATTACK CAPABILITY.

1. RMAO Countermeasure (IMMEDIATE): The order for the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve movement must be modified: MCLC and heavy mine rollers must lead all mechanized columns. Assume all rear AoAs are mined. Conduct rapid de-mining sweeps ahead of the main formation movement (NLT 051545Z).
2. EW Prioritization (IMMEDIATE): Dedicate three (3) mobile EW assets to continuous broad-spectrum jamming focused on potential "Mangas" C2 bands along known reserve corridors to Phase Line BRAVO. Jammers must deploy now to prevent further mine-laying.
3. Counter-Logistics Exploitation: Task long-range fires to execute Phase 2 strikes on secondary RF logistical infrastructure (e.g., ammunition caches within 20km of Stepnohorsk front line) to exploit the Temryuk fuel gap and maximize the pressure on RF sustainment ahead of MLD.

7.2. Air Defense Allocation (J3 / AD Command)

ACTION: MAINTAIN LOGISTICAL DEFENSE PRIORITY. DO NOT BREAK AD CONCENTRATION FOR FIXATION.

1. Zolotonosha Concentration: Reiterate the decision: Ignore the Kyiv/Obukhiv UAV vector as a fixation effort. Concentrate all available SHORAD (especially mobile, high-rate-of-fire systems like Gepard or VADS) at Zolotonosha rail infrastructure and POL storage.
2. Northern Threat Mitigation: Utilize local EW/man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS) in the Sumy region for attrition, but do not divert medium or long-range AD from the MLD sector. The Sumy threat is kinetic but localized.

7.3. Strategic Communications (STRATCOM / J6)

ACTION: WEAPONIZE THE ENEMY'S INTERNAL CORRUPTION TO NEUTRALIZE DOMESTIC DISSENT.

1. Deflection Campaign (IMMEDIATE - NLT 051600Z): Launch a high-intensity, "Clean Hands" STRATCOM campaign focusing heavily on the RF General Ivanov corruption case. Contrast: Highlight the arrest of MP Skorod as "Ukraine cleaning its house even under fire," juxtaposed against "Russia's elite generals stealing millions even while forcing mobilization."
2. Reserve Commitment Messaging: Ensure all communications regarding the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve movement emphasize the necessity of overcoming new, technologically advanced threats (Mangas mine-laying), framing the defense as a technologically savvy and determined response, not a desperate scramble.

//END OF MISREP//