Sitrep 2025-12-05 15:00:25

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (MISREP) 25-12-05/071

TIME: 051505Z DEC 2025 SUBJECT: MLD INITIATION IMMINENT (STEPNOHORSK); P4 THREAT EXPANDED (KYIV VECTOR); CRITICAL IO VULNERABILITIES REMAIN UNMITIGATED. PRIORITY: P4 Neutralize Deep-Penetration UAV Threat (IMMEDIATE); P7 Execute IO Damage Control (IMMEDIATE); P1 MLD Defensive Posture (NLT 052100Z).

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The operational geometry is defined by RF fixation efforts across multiple domains ahead of the kinetic Main Land Drive (MLD) at Stepnohorsk. RF forces are employing wide-area, multi-vector UAV swarms to force UAF AD fragmentation, confirming synchronization across operational sectors.

MLD Axis (Zaporizhzhia): KAB strikes confirmed on the Donetsk region (14:39Z), sustaining preparatory fires for the 37th GMRB assault.
P4 Deep Operational Zone (CRITICAL): The deep strike threat has expanded. UAV ingress is confirmed tracking toward the Obukhiv area (Kyiv Oblast) (14:38Z), in addition to the primary Zolotonosha (Cherkasy) vector, and new activity toward Kharkiv/Sumy (14:45Z).
Counter-Attrition Operations: UAF deep strike capability remains active, evidenced by a drone strike on a local official’s vehicle in Belgorod region (14:56Z). This acts as a minor deterrent but does not disrupt MLD preparations.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Favorable conditions continue, enabling sustained RF UAV operations (Group 1/2) and KAB targeting throughout the deep operational space.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

UAF is experiencing maximum strain on Air Defense (AD) C2, due to the requirement to service three or more simultaneous, distinct UAV vectors (Zolotonosha, Horodnia, Obukhiv/Kyiv, Kharkiv/Sumy).

Strategic Engagement: UAF senior leadership (Umierov, Hnatov) confirms a second meeting with US officials (Trump team) in Miami (14:41Z, 14:52Z). JUDGMENT: This confirms UAF prioritization of strategic risk mitigation against US policy uncertainty, attempting to secure necessary political backing concurrent with kinetic defense preparations.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Overall Intent: Ensure the MLD (Stepnohorsk) succeeds by achieving operational paralysis through AD resource fragmentation (P4) and domestic IO saturation (P7), facilitating a tactical breach.

Precision Targeting: RF MoD claims destruction of a UAF UAV Command Post near Dimitrov using a Krasnopol-M2 guided projectile (14:46Z). JUDGMENT (MEDIUM): If confirmed, this indicates RF retains highly effective ISR/targeting capabilities on the front line, specifically against non-conventional UAF C2 nodes, which degrades UAF tactical reconnaissance supporting the MLD defense.
Logistical Sustainment Nuance: While main logistics (260th GRAU Arsenal) remain high, RF continues to rely heavily on volunteer support for unit-level sustainment ("Два майора" 14:45Z). This vulnerability will increase if the MLD results in prolonged mechanized engagement.
Long-Term Commitment: RF is reinforcing the commitment of personnel through domestic messaging (pension credit for volunteer service, 14:41Z), supporting the narrative that this conflict is a sustainable, long-term national effort.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The primary tactical adaptation is the expansion of the deep strike deception/fixation area to include the Kyiv vector (Obukhiv), forcing UAF AD assets normally tasked with Capital defense or strategic reserve protection to enter active engagement cycles, thus further diluting assets intended for the P4 Zolotonosha axis.

2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

RF C2 remains robust, demonstrated by the effective synchronization of KAB strikes (Donetsk), deep UAV operations (four distinct vectors), and simultaneous IO saturation targeting both domestic morale (Skorod, Odesa) and international political will (Orbán, Danish aid).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

Readiness remains defined by the ability to execute the P4 AD prioritization protocol and implement the P7 STRATCOM damage control. The risk of operational reserve commitment being complicated by the domestic IO environment remains acute.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

SETBACK (Kinetic/ISR): Potential loss of a UAV C2 node near Dimitrov (14:46Z) requires immediate investigation. If lost, this degrades UAF ability to coordinate forward reconnaissance and counter-battery fire against KAB launch positions.
SETBACK (Strategic/Diplomatic - Future): Denmark is reportedly halving financial aid in 2026 (14:35Z). While not immediate, this is a future resource constraint that will be immediately weaponized by RF IO.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CRITICAL - IO/AD Assets)

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Immediate and decisive political action (STRATCOM P7) to manage the domestic corruption and mobilization crises before the MLD kinetic assault (052100Z). The success of the P1 reserve commitment hinges on maintaining domestic political cohesion.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

The Information Environment is nearing its peak hostility level, achieving maximum synchronization with the kinetic MLD preparations.

Domain	Finding (FACT/Judgment)	Confidence	Operational Impact
Western Cohesion (Future)	Denmark plans to halve financial aid in 2026 (14:35Z).	HIGH (Fact)	Provides RF IO with material evidence of long-term Western commitment decline, undermining morale and strategic planning certainty.
RF Strategic Signaling	Hungarian PM Orbán signals Russia-US talks are critical to avoiding war escalation into Europe (14:46Z).	HIGH (Fact/PSYOP)	RF leverages neutral/skeptical European voices to frame the conflict as dangerously escalating and the UAF defense as unsustainable, pressuring immediate political concessions.
Occupied Area Instability	Bilozerka coal mine cessation due to combat proximity and labor issues (14:45Z).	MEDIUM (Fact/IO)	Indicates persistent economic and governance decay in occupied near-front areas, potentially leading to local resistance opportunities, but also confirming RF tolerance for industrial attrition.
UAF Strategic Diplomatic	UAF delegation confirms second meeting with Trump team (14:52Z).	HIGH (Fact/Strategic)	Mitigates RF IO efforts to paint Ukraine as strategically isolated and ensures vital contingency planning is underway.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

RF executes the synchronized MLD sequence immediately.

P4 AD Overload: RF utilizes the Obukhiv (Kyiv), Kharkiv/Sumy, and Horodnia vectors to maximally fragment UAF AD assets. This guarantees a reduced AD density protecting the Zolotonosha axis.
P4 Strike Success: The Zolotonosha UAV group successfully strikes the critical rail junction or POL depot (1600Z-1800Z), achieving the primary logistical interdiction objective.
MLD Launch: 37th GMRB initiates the kinetic drive at Stepnohorsk (052100Z +/- 3 hours), capitalizing on the resulting logistical paralysis and peak IO saturation (Skorod/Odesa narratives).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

RF uses the UAV ingress near Obukhiv (Kyiv) not for a decoy, but as high-fidelity terminal guidance for a long-range kinetic strike (Iskander/Kinzhal) targeting a national-level UAF Strategic C2 node or a key power generation facility serving the Kyiv/Dnipro corridor. This simultaneous strategic decapitation effort is combined with the successful logistical strike at Zolotonosha and the MLD, aiming for a catastrophic collapse of UAF ability to coordinate Phase Line BRAVO reserves or counter-fire operations within the critical 12-hour window.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL)

Event	Estimated Time Frame	Decision Point	Status
P7: Domestic IO Damage Control Execution	IMMEDIATE (051515Z)	STRATCOM must launch formal, unified response to Skorod/Odesa incidents to compartmentalize damage before MLD launch. (CRITICAL IO)	IMMEDIATE ACTION REQUIRED
P4: Deep UAV Neutralization (Zolotonosha)	NLT 051700Z	AD/J3 must confirm neutralization or successful diversion of UAV groups tracking toward Zolotonosha.	CRITICAL AD/LOGISTICS (P4)
P1: Reserve Maneuver Commitment	NLT 051600Z	Execution of Protocol BRAVO-BLOCK must commence regardless of persistent P1 intelligence gaps regarding the 38th GMRB.	CRITICAL MANEUVER (P1)
MLD Launch Window	052100Z +/- 3 hours	Final order for UAF counter-fire operations.	CRITICAL KINETIC

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

Priority	Gap Description	Required Action	Confidence Impact
P4 (CRITICAL - AD THREAT)	PRECISE TARGETING INTENT FOR OBUKHIV/KYIV UAV VECTOR. Is this fixation, or is the threat kinetic (C2/Infrastructure)?	IMMEDIATE SIGINT/ELINT Tasking: Focus intercept and analysis on the C2 frequencies used by the Obukhiv vector UAVs. AD Tasking: Prioritize visual tracking and high-altitude asset patrol near critical Kyiv infrastructure.	CRITICAL
P2 (CRITICAL - LOGISTICS)	VERIFICATION OF DIMITROV UAV C2 LOSS. What was the capability of the alleged lost command post, and which formations were supported?	IMMEDIATE HUMINT/J2 Tasking: Contact regional command posts and frontline units near Dimitrov to verify C2 network stability and report on any reduction in local reconnaissance coverage.	HIGH
P7 (CRITICAL - IO Vulnerability)	STRATCOM COUNTER-NARRATIVE EFFECTIVENESS. Is the UAF political leadership response to the Skorod case resonating domestically?	IMMEDIATE HUMINT/J2 Tasking: Collect and collate security and morale reports from TCC offices and frontline unit leadership to gauge IO effectiveness post-MLD preparation.	CRITICAL

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1. Operational Maneuver and Fires (J3 / J2)

ACTION: P4 AD CAPACITY MUST BE CENTRALLY CONTROLLED TO DEFEND ZOLOTONOSHA, DESPITE KYIV/OBUKHIV FIXATION EFFORTS. THE LOGISTICAL BASE IS MORE CRITICAL THAN THE DISTRACTION.

P4 AD/EW Prioritization (IMMEDIATE): The Obukhiv (Kyiv) UAV track must be designated as a Level 2 Threat (Distraction/Low Probability of Kinetic Strike on C2). Do not divert AD assets designated for Zolotonosha. Dedicate minimum necessary local defenses to the Kyiv vector.
Concentration of Force (IMMEDIATE): Execute Protocol BRAVO-BLOCK immediately (NLT 051600Z). The probability of the MLD launch is now too high to risk a lack of tactical depth. This commitment must be communicated clearly to all maneuver formations as essential for localized success.
Counter-Reconnaissance: Utilize artillery systems in the Donetsk sector to execute localized suppression of RF artillery suspected of launching Krasnopol-M2, targeting confirmed C2/reconaissance kill chains following the Dimitrov incident.

7.2. Strategic Communications and Domestic Resilience (STRATCOM / J6)

ACTION: FAILURE TO EXECUTE P7 DAMAGE CONTROL BY 051530Z WILL DIRECTLY COMPLICATE P1 RESERVE MANEUVER COMMITMENT.

P7 Corruption Response (IMMEDIATE - NLT 051515Z): The Presidential Administration must issue a high-level public address framing the NABU/SBU actions against MP Skorod as an unwavering commitment to internal integrity even during maximum wartime threat (MLD). This must neutralize the RF narrative that Ukraine is too corrupt to defend itself.
P7 Western Support (PREEMPTIVE): STRATCOM must issue a preemptive statement regarding the 2026 Danish aid reduction, framing it as a necessary restructuring or a reflection of Ukraine's future self-sufficiency, rather than a failure of international support. Emphasize the current, critical $500M Patriot package.
C2 Cohesion Messaging (IMMEDIATE): Broadcast clear instructions to all TCCs emphasizing extreme professionalism and adherence to legal protocol during mobilization, using the Odesa incident as a high-visibility example of unacceptable behavior that plays directly into enemy hands.

//END OF MISREP//

Situation Report