MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (MISREP) 25-12-05/070
TIME: 051445Z DEC 2025
SUBJECT: MLD PREPARATIONS CRITICAL; P4 THREAT SUSTAINED; ACUTE DOMESTIC IO ENVIRONMENT DEGRADATION (SKOROD/ODESA INCIDENTS).
PRIORITY: P4 Neutralize Deep-Penetration UAV Threat (IMMEDIATE); P7 Execute IO Damage Control (IMMEDIATE); P1 MLD Defensive Posture (NLT 052100Z).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
The operational environment remains focused on the Stepnohorsk MLD axis (Zaporizhzhia), but the operational depth is increasingly challenged by persistent RF kinetic and non-kinetic fixation efforts.
- P4 Deep Operational Zone (CRITICAL): The Zolotonosha-vectored UAV group remains the primary deep logistics threat.
- Northern Fixation: UAF Air Force confirms a new UAV presence tracking toward Horodnia (Chernihiv region) (14:19Z). This forces the engagement of mobile AD assets in the North-East, serving as a tactical distraction from the main P4 effort further south.
- Attrition Sector (Kharkiv): Confirmed fatal Russian UAV strike on a civilian truck (14:26Z). Indicates RF continued commitment to low-level kinetic attrition against non-military targets in stabilized areas to erode morale.
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Clear, favorable conditions persist, enabling sustained RF UAV operations across multiple operational sectors (Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv).
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
UAF is currently reacting to multiple simultaneous threats, risking resource fragmentation:
- Air Defense Overload: AD assets are actively tracking UAV groups on the P4 (Zolotonosha) vector and now the Horodnia vector. The simultaneous multi-axis AD requirement reduces the density available for protecting frontline maneuver formations against massed KAB strikes ahead of the MLD.
- Strategic Coordination: The meeting between UAF senior leadership (Umierov, Hnatov) and US officials (Witkoff, Kushner) in Miami (14:28Z) confirms UAF is prioritizing securing high-level future political backing simultaneously with kinetic defense planning.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Overall Intent: Ensure MLD success at Stepnohorsk through preparatory kinetic shaping fires, deep logistical interdiction (P4), and maximizing operational paralysis via domestic destabilization (P7).
- Escalation Signaling: Dmitry Peskov’s repeated public declaration (14:18Z, 14:19Z) that Russia will continue the war "by force" if political goals are not achieved is assessed as deliberate strategic signaling. JUDGMENT: This confirms RF commitment to the imminent kinetic escalation (MLD) and eliminates any perceived ambiguity regarding ceasefire or political settlements prior to achieving localized tactical objectives on the Zaporizhzhia axis.
- Propaganda Professionalization: The launch of the state-supported "SVOyaKul’tura" educational media project (14:15Z) demonstrates RF institutional commitment to professionalizing and sustaining the long-term domestic information warfare effort.
- Deep ISR/Fixation: The simultaneous operation of UAVs in Chernihiv (Horodnia) and Cherkasy (Zolotonosha) indicates RF possesses the necessary Group 1/2 UAV capacity and C2 structure to execute multi-sector deep reconnaissance and distraction operations effectively.
2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
RF retains sufficient material readiness for the MLD. Long-term strategic sustainment (weapons development and export) is indicated by India's interest in 'Lancet' loitering munitions (14:13Z). JUDGMENT: While immediate logistical impact is nil, India's potential involvement in Lancet production (Dempster-Shafer 0.1028) would significantly increase RF's long-term loitering munition production capacity.
2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
RF C2 remains highly effective, evidenced by the multi-domain synchronization (kinetic MLD, P4 strikes, and IO saturation). The IO campaign specifically targets UAF C2 cohesion (Lviv TCC, MP Skorod case) and operational freedom (forced AD fragmentation).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
The immediate challenge for UAF J3 is achieving defensive resource allocation synergy between AD defense against P4 and maneuver reserve positioning (P1). The integrity of the information domain is the weakest point right now.
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- SETBACK (IO/Domestic - P7): Ukrainian MP Skorod is served with suspicion notice by NABU/SBU for bribery (14:16Z). This high-level, verifiable corruption case provides RF IO with maximum domestic friction material, severely undermining public trust just hours before the MLD.
- SETBACK (Mobilization/IO - P7): Videos confirming forceful apprehension/conscription in Odesa (Khajybeevka) (14:05Z, 14:15Z) are being weaponized by RF channels to fuel anti-mobilization and TCC violence narratives.
- SETBACK (Kinetic/AD): Confirmed UAV activity in Chernihiv/Horodnia (14:19Z) demands AD resources that should be focused on the P4 Zolotonosha axis.
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CRITICAL - IO/AD Assets)
- STRATCOM/IO Capacity: The capacity to immediately and effectively respond to the Skorod and Odesa incidents is now a force protection requirement, equivalent to AD assets. Failure to manage these domestic crises will undermine reserve maneuver commitment.
- EW Prioritization: EW focus must remain concentrated on the P4 Zolotonosha vector despite Northern distractions.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
The RF strategy is currently achieving maximum tactical effect in the cognitive domain, leveraging genuine domestic events (Lviv, Skorod, Odesa apprehension videos) to achieve operational paralysis in UAF decision-making.
| Domain | Finding (FACT/Judgment) | Confidence | Operational Impact |
|---|
| Domestic Corruption | NABU/SBU charge MP Skorod with bribery/extortion (14:16Z). | HIGH (Fact/IO) | CRITICAL: Provides undeniable proof of elite corruption. Maximized RF IO targeting to frame the current Ukrainian political structure as illegitimate and self-serving during the MLD. |
| Internal Mobilization | RF channels amplify video of alleged forceful conscription in Odesa (14:05Z). | HIGH (IO/Fact) | Directly attacks the morale and legality of the UAF mobilization effort, exacerbating internal friction ahead of the critical MLD reserve commitment phase. |
| RF Strategic Signaling | Peskov confirms war continuation by force (14:18Z). | HIGH (Fact) | Reinforces RF intent for kinetic success and dismisses premature peace efforts. Provides justification for the MLD to both domestic and international audiences. |
| Western Disunity (PSYOP) | RF sources promote German anti-conscription protests citing preference for "Putin's rule" (14:32Z). | MEDIUM (Propaganda/DS) | Standard RF PSYOP aimed at fracturing European political will and justifying the narrative of Western weakness to the RF domestic audience. |
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
RF executes the synchronized multi-domain assault NLT 052100Z.
- P4 Logistical Strike: UAV groups successfully strike a critical node (POL/Rail) near Zolotonosha (1600Z-1800Z), causing a major logistical bottleneck for the Zaporizhzhia axis.
- MLD Execution: 37th GMRB initiates the mechanized drive at Stepnohorsk, utilizing Kuryer UGVs. This kinetic attack is masked by peak IO saturation surrounding the Skorod scandal and forced mobilization videos.
- IO Exploitation: RF IO utilizes the acute domestic friction to delay or complicate UAF C2 decision-making regarding the commitment of the Phase Line BRAVO operational reserve, leading to localized breach exploitation by the 37th GMRB.
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
RF uses the P4 UAV vector not for kinetic strikes, but for real-time targeting confirmation for a combined $KAB$ and long-range fires strike against key UAF logistics centers (not C2, as per previous MDCOA, but logistics). The simultaneous destruction of a major Dnieper crossing or rail yard near Zolotonosha and a key intermediate supply base (ISB) along the Zaporizhzhia supply line prevents UAF J4 from adequately resupplying the Phase Line BRAVO defense post-breach. The MLD achieves operational depth, potentially isolating the Huliaipole sector defenders within 48 hours.
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL)
| Event | Estimated Time Frame | Decision Point | Status |
|---|
| P7: Domestic IO Damage Control Execution | IMMEDIATE (051500Z) | STRATCOM must launch formal, unified response to Skorod/Odesa incidents to compartmentalize damage before MLD launch. | CRITICAL IO |
| P4: Deep UAV Neutralization Window (Zolotonosha) | NLT 051700Z | AD/J3 must confirm neutralization or successful diversion of UAV groups tracking toward Zolotonosha. | CRITICAL AD/LOGISTICS (P4) |
| P1: Reserve Maneuver Commitment | NLT 051600Z | Decision to commit the Phase Line BRAVO blocking force must be finalized, as per previous recommendation. | CRITICAL MANEUVER (P1) |
| MLD Launch Window | 052100Z +/- 3 hours | Final order for UAF counter-fire operations. | CRITICAL KINETIC |
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
| Priority | Gap Description | Required Action | Confidence Impact |
|---|
| P4 (CRITICAL - DEEP STRIKE) | PRECISE TARGETING SOLUTION FOR ZOLOTONOSHA UAV GROUPS. Are the targets the Zolotonosha rail bridge/junction or the large central POL storage facility? | IMMEDIATE IMINT/GEOINT Tasking: Focus SAR/EO on identified critical infrastructure (rail, POL, major bridges) in a 15km radius of Zolotonosha, seeking unusual ground activity or pre-strike markers. | CRITICAL |
| P1 (CRITICAL - MANEUVER) | CONFIRMATION OF 38TH GMRB RESERVE COMMITMENT. Are they using the claimed Huliaipole "advances" to prepare an exploitation force or is this purely fixing? | IMMEDIATE ISR Tasking: High-altitude ISR (TB2 or similar) focus on the rear echelon and supply lines of the 38th GMRB Northwest of Huliaipole to detect significant mechanized column readiness. | HIGH |
| P7 (CRITICAL - IO Vulnerability) | IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF SKOROD/ODESA INCIDENTS ON PUBLIC AND MILITARY MORALE. | IMMEDIATE HUMINT/J2 Tasking: Collect and collate security and morale reports from TCC offices and frontline unit leadership to gauge IO effectiveness. | CRITICAL |
7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS
7.1. Operational Maneuver and Fires (J3 / J2)
ACTION: P4 AND P1 MITIGATION MUST BE EXECUTED IMMEDIATELY, PRIORITIZING ASSET PROTECTION OVER IO MANAGEMENT (WHICH FALLS TO STRATCOM).
- P4 AD/EW Focus (IMMEDIATE): Ignore the low-priority UAV activity near Horodnia (Chernihiv) unless it poses an immediate threat to high-value AD assets. CONCENTRATE ALL MOBILE AD/EW CAPACITY ON THE ZOLOTONOSHA VECTOR. Dedicate EW assets to blanket the likely UAV approach corridors to disrupt navigation and C2.
- Flank Maneuver (NLT 051600Z): RECONFIRM AND EXECUTE PROTOCOL BRAVO-BLOCK. Commit the designated maneuver blocking force to Phase Line BRAVO now. The risk of the MLD penetrating a weakened main line is too high to withhold this reserve based on unresolved P1 intelligence.
- MLD Defense: Ensure HMG and AGL crews are fully briefed and provisioned for the prioritized engagement of Kuryer UGVs. Do not allow the UGVs to breach the primary mine-belts.
7.2. Strategic Communications and Domestic Resilience (STRATCOM / J6)
ACTION: EXECUTE A RAPID, TRUTHFUL, AND HIGH-IMPACT COUNTER-IO CAMPAIGN TO CONTAIN DOMESTIC COLLAPSE NARRATIVES (P7).
- P7 Skorod/Corruption Response (IMMEDIATE): STRATCOM must immediately issue a high-level statement (Presidential Administration or Defense Minister) confirming the NABU/SBU action against MP Skorod. The narrative must frame this action as evidence of the health and resilience of Ukrainian institutions actively rooting out corruption, countering the RF narrative that corruption is endemic and tolerated.
- P7 Mobilization Counter-Narrative (IMMEDIATE): Acknowledge the Odesa TCC incident videos. Launch a synchronized campaign emphasizing the extreme conditions of combat and the high human cost, urging professionalism and restraint by TCC staff, while simultaneously framing RF use of the footage as a desperate attempt to undermine necessary defense mobilization.
- C2 Messaging (P7): Issue clear, focused internal communications to all frontline units confirming the severity of the MLD threat and the critical role of maintaining unit cohesion and ignoring RF psychological operations during the kinetic assault window (052100Z-060300Z).
//END OF MISREP//
