Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (MISREP) 25-12-05/060

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TIME: 051415Z DEC 2025 SUBJECT: P4 DEEP STRIKE THREAT REFINED (ZOLOTONOSHA VECTOR); MLD PREPARATIONS ENTER FINAL STAGE; DOMESTIC IO TARGETED. PRIORITY: P4 Neutralize Deep-Penetration UAV Threat (IMMEDIATE - Zolotonosha); P1 Resolve Chervonoye Flank Status (NLT 051600Z).

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The operational environment is defined by the immediate convergence of the RF kinetic main effort (Stepnohorsk MLD) and the non-kinetic operational paralysis effort (P4).

• P4 Deep Operational Zone (CRITICAL): The UAV threat previously identified moving toward Cherkasy Oblast is now confirmed to be vectored toward Zolotonosha (13:54Z). Zolotonosha sits on the Dnieper River and controls critical road/rail access points into Central and Southern Ukraine. This pinpoints the immediate high-risk zone for UAF AD assets.
• Zaporizhzhia/Stepnohorsk (MLD Axis): Kinetic preparations are complete. RF state and proxy media are amplifying claims of successful localized advances around Huliaipole (13:40Z), likely attempting to reinforce the perception of a looming flank collapse (P1) just hours before the MLD launch (052100Z window).
• Eastern Operational Zone (Stabilization): UAF 414th Separate Brigade (Drone UAVs) confirmed successful engagement of RF personnel on the Pokrovske direction (13:47Z). This tactical success validates UAF defensive stability and effectively counters RF high-profile IO claims of encirclement in the sector.
• Volchansk/Kharkiv: RF claims localized operational success, including the capture of UAF prisoners (13:35Z). This suggests continued localized fixation efforts in the North-East, preventing UAF reserves from being shifted South.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The P4 Utility Disruption remains the enabling factor. Clear, favorable conditions persist in Central Ukraine, permitting sustained, low-altitude operation of Group 1/2 UAVs along the Poltava-Cherkasy-Zolotonosha vector.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

UAF command is actively shifting defensive focus to counter the P4 deep threat:

• Air Defense Realignment: AD assets in the Cherkasy region are being tasked to intercept the Zolotonosha-vectored UAV group. This necessary diversion reduces the AD density allocated to protecting staging areas immediately behind the Stepnohorsk front.
• Reserve Posture: The Phase Line BRAVO operational reserve remains on standby, pending P1 verification (Chervonoye/Huliaipole status). RF IO is heavily focused on undermining UAF internal cohesion, increasing the psychological difficulty of C2 decision-making regarding reserve commitment.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Overall Intent: Achieve MLD success at Stepnohorsk through preparatory kinetic shaping fires (KAB), deep logistical interdiction (P4 UAVs on Zolotonosha vector), and strategic IO saturation (Domestic friction).

• P4 Deep Exploitation (Zolotonosha Targeting): Intent is to severely degrade the logistical pipeline by striking critical rail or fuel nodes near Zolotonosha. Success would immediately delay or halt the flow of UAF materiel toward Zaporizhzhia, significantly increasing the probability of the Stepnohorsk MLD breaching Phase Line BRAVO.
• Sustained Pressure (Huliaipole): RF claims of advance at Huliaipole (13:40Z) suggest the 38th GMRB is actively maintaining high pressure to fix UAF 1st Echelon defenses and prevent lateral movement toward the main Stepnohorsk axis.
• Hybrid Synchronization: The simultaneous application of kinetic pressure (MLD), infrastructure strikes (P4), and targeted domestic destabilization (Lviv TCC incident, salary narrative) confirms a highly synchronized, multi-domain RF operation.

2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

RF remains sustained for the initial kinetic phase of the MLD (Score 26.12). The shift to deep UAV targeting (P4) is a strategic move to undermine UAF sustainment, demonstrating RF’s belief that interdiction is currently more effective than direct attrition.

2.3. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1. Precision Targeting: The refinement of the UAV vector to Zolotonosha demonstrates effective RF ISR and targeting coordination following the Poltava power outage.
2. Exploitation of Domestic Friction: RF IO immediately seized upon the tragic Lviv TCC murder arrest (13:37Z) to fuel internal dissent and anti-mobilization sentiment, reinforcing the earlier "salary crisis" narrative.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

UAF combat units demonstrate continued effectiveness (Pokrovsk drone strikes; DShV commendation). However, the immediate challenge is tactical resource allocation: defending deep rear area logistics (P4) vs. prioritizing frontal AD coverage (MLD axis). Domestic morale is under severe stress due to RF IO capitalizing on internal security issues (Lviv TCC incident).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

• SETBACK (CRITICAL): UAV group confirmed tracking toward Zolotonosha, Cherkasy Oblast. Immediate threat to strategic supply lines.
• SUCCESS: Tactical counter-attack/defensive fires confirmed on the Pokrovske direction, denying RF advance and validating UAF combat effectiveness.
• SETBACK (IO/Domestic): Arrest in the Lviv TCC murder case provides RF with powerful, verifiable domestic friction point for IO exploitation.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CRITICAL - P4 AD/EW)

The single most critical requirement remains shifting mobile AD/EW capacity to the P4 vector.

1. Zolotonosha AD Shield: Mobile AD units must be positioned to cover rail junctions, bridges, and fuel depots within the Zolotonosha area immediately.
2. EW Deployment: Prioritize EW assets (M-ATAMS, counter-drone rifles) to the predicted UAV flight path bottlenecks in the Cherkasy region to disrupt C2 and guide failure.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

RF IO is pursuing maximal domestic destabilization and external credibility erosion, leveraging kinetic timing and genuine domestic incidents.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

RF executes the Stepnohorsk MLD NLT 052100Z, achieving a localized breach due to UAF resource stress from P4.

1. P4 Logistical Strike: UAV groups successfully strike a rail intermodal yard or fuel depot near Zolotonosha between 1600Z and 1800Z, forcing J3 to divert critical logistical resources for recovery.
2. MLD Execution: The 37th GMRB initiates the mechanized drive at Stepnohorsk, led by Kuryer UGVs, coinciding with maximum information warfare noise (flank collapse claims, domestic unrest).
3. Flank Fixing: The 38th GMRB renews coordinated attacks around Huliaipole/Chervone to ensure the UAF operational reserve is either committed prematurely or withheld due to perceived flank weakness.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

RF utilizes the UAV screen near Zolotonosha to guide a medium-range ballistic missile (e.g., Iskander-K) against the central C2/Logistics HQ or a major bridge across the Dnieper River in the Cherkasy region. The combined loss of critical C2 infrastructure and logistical flow immediately preceding the MLD allows the 37th GMRB to penetrate Phase Line BRAVO rapidly and exploit the resulting operational gap.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL)

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1. Operational Maneuver and Fires (J3 / J2)

ACTION: IMMEDIATE P4 THREAT MITIGATION AND RESERVE DEPLOYMENT ARE NON-NEGOTIABLE TO SECURE MLD DEFENSE.

1. P4 AD Deployment (IMMEDIATE): Divert and position mobile Short-Range Air Defense (SHORAD) units immediately to establish an interception zone west and southwest of Zolotonosha (e.g., along the Dnipro corridor). Delegate "fire at will" authority on identified UAV targets in this high-risk zone.
2. Flank Maneuver (NLT 051600Z): Due to the high probability of the Huliaipole pressure (P1) being a genuine attempt to set conditions for flank exploitation, fully implement Protocol BRAVO-BLOCK. Commit the pre-allocated maneuvering blocking force to Phase Line BRAVO now. This decision hedges against a 38th GMRB breakout, regardless of the 1600Z P1 verification result.
3. Fires Priority (MLD): Pre-position counter-battery and HIMARS assets to interdict expected MLD assembly areas for the 37th GMRB. Prioritize HMG/AGL assets for engagement of the Kuryer UGV breaching systems upon MLD initiation.

7.2. Strategic Communications and Domestic Resilience (STRATCOM / J6)

ACTION: EXECUTE RAPID COUNTER-IO MEASURES TO CONTAIN DOMESTIC FRICTION.

1. P7 Lviv Incident Counter-Narrative (IMMEDIATE): STRATCOM must launch a transparent, professional, and rapid counter-narrative addressing the Lviv TCC murder arrest. The narrative must emphasize the swift application of Ukrainian law, confirm the suspect is detained, and firmly frame the incident as a criminal act being exploited by RF propaganda, not institutional failure.
2. Morale Reinforcement (P7): Simultaneously amplify positive domestic narratives, such as the official recognition of International Volunteer Day (13:34Z) and the 77th DShV commendations, linking domestic support directly to front-line combat effectiveness to counter RF psychological operations.
3. Western Unity Messaging: Utilize the statement by President Macron (13:51Z) immediately in external communications to counter the RF "US Betrayal" narrative (14:03Z), reinforcing the message that strategic and diplomatic support remains aligned and stable despite RF efforts to project collapse.

//END OF MISREP//