Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (MISREP) 25-12-05/059

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TIME: 051400Z DEC 2025 SUBJECT: P4 ESCALATION: DEEP STRIKE UAV THREAT MIGRATES TO CHERKASY/KYIV; RF MLD SCHEDULE CONFIRMED; P1 FLANK UNRESOLVED. PRIORITY: P4 Neutralize Deep-Penetration UAV Threat (IMMEDIATE); P1 Resolve Chervonoye Flank Status (NLT 051600Z).

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The operational picture is characterized by RF synchronization of kinetic pressure on the main axis (Stepnohorsk, Kupyansk) with expanding strategic exploitation of the Ukrainian infrastructure degradation (P4).

• Zaporizhzhia/Stepnohorsk: Kinetic preparations continue. The MLD remains scheduled for the 052100Z window. RF forces are maintaining high fixation pressure across the entire axis, while the Huliaipole-Varvarivka sector (P1 flank threat) remains contested/unresolved.
• Central/Northern Operational Zone (CRITICAL ESCALATION): The systemic utility disruption in Poltava Oblast is now confirmed to be actively utilized for deep operational penetration. UAV groups, previously tracked only in Poltava, are now confirmed traversing toward Cherkasy Oblast and have been fixed in the Kyiv region airspace (13:24Z, 13:32Z). This represents a direct, immediate threat to the logistical pipeline and national C2 nodes in Central Ukraine.
• Eastern Operational Zone (Fixation): UAF forces maintain the defensive hold in Kupyansk. High-level UAF leadership (DShV) has issued public statements directly countering RF claims of the Pokrovsk encirclement (13:17Z), indicating the success of RF's high-profile deception effort. RF tactical aviation is active in the North-East direction (13:07Z), likely conducting shaping strikes (KAB/Glide bombs) over Kharkiv/Sumy in preparation for localized ground assaults or to fix UAF 1st Echelon reserves.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The P4 Utility Disruption remains the dominant environmental constraint. The lack of reliable C2/power redundancy in Poltava is enabling the rapid, deep penetration of RF UAV/ISR assets. The movement of UAVs toward Cherkasy/Kyiv suggests clear skies and favorable flight conditions for low-altitude platforms over central Ukraine.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

UAF General Staff is actively engaging the multi-domain threat:

1. Kinetic Defense: AD assets in the Kyiv/Cherkasy corridor are currently tasked with neutralizing the deep-penetrating UAV waves, diverting resources away from the Southern axis defense.
2. Information Defense: UAF DShV forces are committed to maintaining position and aggressively countering RF IO claims regarding Pokrovsk, preserving tactical morale.
3. Reserve: The Phase Line BRAVO operational reserve remains allocated to counter the Stepnohorsk MLD, but its readiness for deployment is being degraded by the P4 logistical threat in the rear.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Overall Intent: Achieve localized kinetic breakthrough at Stepnohorsk (MLD) while simultaneously achieving operational paralysis of UAF reinforcement capabilities by exploiting infrastructure failure deep within the Central Zone (P4).

• P4 Deep Exploitation (ESCALATED INTENT): The movement of UAVs from Poltava toward Cherkasy and Kyiv is an expansion of the P4 threat. Intent is to strike critical deep logistical assets (major rail junctions, key power transmission hubs feeding the South, or strategic C2 facilities) that are currently reliant on the compromised Central corridor. This confirms RF’s capacity to immediately transition from localized infrastructure strikes to operational deep strike coordination.
• Maneuver and Deception: RF maintains the synchronization of the kinetic MLD threat (37th/38th GMRB) with the massive IO deception effort (Pokrovsk claims, 13:17Z) to force the UAF General Staff to commit reserves incorrectly or prematurely.
• Targeted Information Warfare: RF IO has shifted focus to directly undermine UAF domestic strength by disseminating narratives regarding AFU salary failures and the introduction of non-favorable "contract systems" (13:17Z), targeting mobilization morale just hours before the MLD launch.

2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

RF logistics remain sufficient for the MLD initiation (Score 26.12). The shift in kinetic targeting (deep UAV strikes) demonstrates a strategic prioritization of UAF logistical interdiction over direct RF sustainment needs. RF is effectively using the air domain to cripple UAF ground movement.

2.3. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1. Rapid Threat Migration (P4): RF demonstrated immediate tactical responsiveness to the Poltava power failure by launching deep UAV strikes that are now threatening Central and Northern Ukraine, showing effective coordination between ISR (identifying the "dark zone") and strike assets.
2. Coordinated IO Targeting (P2): RF information campaigns are now highly localized and timed, directly addressing AFU internal challenges (salaries/contracts) at a moment of maximum kinetic stress.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

UAF forces are successfully holding fixation areas (Kupyansk) and maintaining strategic vigilance (Pokrovsk denial). However, the operational readiness of the reserve and the ability to sustain the Southern Front is now directly threatened by the P4 deep penetration (Cherkasy/Kyiv). The dispersal of AD assets to protect these deep targets reduces the density available for the MLD axes.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

• SETBACK (CRITICAL): Confirmed tracking of RF UAVs operating in the Kyiv and Cherkasy regions, validating the full escalation of the P4 utility threat into the operational rear.
• SUCCESS: Successful counter-IO efforts by DShV General Staff regarding the Pokrovsk deception.
• SETBACK: Confirmed RF strike on Chuhuiv (Kharkiv Oblast) by Geranium/Shahed platforms.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CRITICAL - P4 AD/C2)

The most immediate requirement is the reallocation of AD/EW assets to prevent a successful deep strike on logistical hubs.

1. Immediate AD Tasking: Short-range (VADS/MANPADS) and medium-range (NASAMS/Patriot if available) systems must be prioritized immediately along the UAV flight paths (Poltava-Cherkasy-Kyiv vector) to neutralize the threat before targets are reached.
2. C2 Hardening: The stabilization of SATCOM/generator redundancy (P4 from the previous report) is now a race against time, as the enemy is actively moving to target the logistical nodes before they can be hardened.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

RF IO is executing a highly aggressive, multi-layered assault designed to induce domestic friction and undermine AFU institutional strength, synchronized with the MLD schedule.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

RF will execute the Stepnohorsk MLD NLT 052100Z, coordinated with successful deep kinetic interdiction of UAF logistics in Central Ukraine.

1. Decisive Deep Strike (P4 Success): The UAV groups currently moving toward Cherkasy/Kyiv will successfully reach and strike a high-value logistics node (rail or major fuel depot) within the P4 affected corridor (Poltava to Cherkasy/Kyiv) between 1600Z and 1900Z.
2. MLD Execution: 37th GMRB initiates the robotic/mechanized assault at Stepnohorsk. The 38th GMRB renews high-intensity pressure on the Huliaipole-Varvarivka flank to fix the UAF operational reserve.
3. IO Paralysis: RF simultaneously maximizes the "salary crisis" and "Pokrovsk collapse" narratives to sow doubt among UAF commanders and troops regarding the fight's viability.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

RF successfully interdicts the strategic rail network linking Western supply lines (Lviv/Odesa) to the Southern Front via a successful Kinzhal/Iskander strike on a critical junction in the Cherkasy or Kyiv region, guided by the deep-penetrating UAVs. The logistical artery is severed for >48 hours, immediately leading to munitions depletion for defending units at Stepnohorsk. This simultaneous logistical collapse and kinetic breach allows the 37th GMRB to penetrate Phase Line BRAVO rapidly.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL)

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1. Operational Maneuver and Fires (J3 / J2)

ACTION: IMMEDIATE P4 THREAT NEUTRALIZATION IS PARAMOUNT TO PREVENT LOGISTICAL PARALYSIS.

1. P4 Deep Air Defense Priority (IMMEDIATE): Reallocate high-end mobile air defense assets (e.g., Gepard/MANPADS teams previously securing non-critical nodes) immediately to protect primary rail hubs and power infrastructure in Cherkasy and Western Poltava Oblasts. Engagement authority for the UAV tracks must be delegated down to the lowest possible level.
2. P1 Maneuver Contingency: Maintain the operational reserve in high readiness. If P1 verification (Chervonoye status) is not achieved by 051600Z, proceed with the deployment of a maneuver blocking force contingent to Phase Line BRAVO, as the risk of flank exposure outweighs the certainty of the Pokrovsk deception.
3. Force Protection (Kharkiv): Anticipate continued KAB/Glide bomb usage in the North-East. Increase passive defense measures and dispersal of C2/logistics nodes near Chuhuiv and other high-risk areas in Kharkiv Oblast following the confirmed 13:17Z strike.

7.2. Strategic Communications and Domestic Resilience (STRATCOM / J6)

ACTION: COUNTER RF MORALE ATTACKS AND HARDEN C2 INFRASTRUCTURE.

1. P4 C2 Hardening (IMMEDIATE): J6 must prioritize stabilization teams to secure the key communications infrastructure (SATCOM, fiber nodes) in Poltava and Chernihiv, focusing on physical security against potential follow-up RF kinetic strikes.
2. P7 Counter-Propaganda Blitz (IMMEDIATE): STRATCOM must launch an aggressive, nationally broadcast campaign to counter the RF "AFU salary/contract" narrative (13:17Z). This must feature high-ranking MoD or General Staff officials definitively confirming funding and contractual stability, while condemning the RF IO as a desperate attempt to fracture the home front before the MLD.
3. Local Resilience: Leverage the Zaporizhzhia OVA’s public cultural promotions (13:30Z) as evidence of civilian morale and resistance, actively integrating these positive narratives into national IO output to counter the MLD fear.