Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (MISREP) 25-12-05/058

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TIME: 051330Z DEC 2025 SUBJECT: STEPNOHORSK MLD IMMINENT; UTILITY VULNERABILITY ESCALATES (CHERNIHIV/POLTAVA); RF DRONE TECHNOLOGY IO MAXIMIZED. PRIORITY: P1 Verify Chervonoye Status (NLT 051400Z). P4 Stabilize Chernihiv/Poltava C2/Utility (IMMEDIATE). P2 Strategic IO Counter-Offensive (IMMEDIATE).

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The overall operational posture remains fixated on the imminent Stepnohorsk Main Effort Land Drive (MLD). RF fixation efforts are sustained across multiple axes, leveraging infrastructure disruption to maximize operational friction.

• Zaporizhzhia/Stepnohorsk (CRITICAL): Kinetic preparations are complete. RF tactical activity is confirmed in the Huliaipole – Varvarivka sector (12:48Z), confirming the 38th GMRB remains in position to execute the flank maneuver, linking the P1 intelligence gap directly to current kinetic action.
• Northern Operational Zone (ESCALATION): The systemic network and power failure has expanded. Poltava Oblast has initiated emergency power outages (12:34Z), extending the critical vulnerability previously confined to Chernihiv (P4) southward into a vital logistics and C2 corridor. UAVs are actively exploiting this vulnerability, tracked moving past Karlivka and Lokhvytsia (Poltava region) (12:47Z).
• Kharkiv/Kupyansk: RF forces are confirmed to be making attempts at consolidation and advance within the ruins of Vovchansk (12:34Z). UAF National Guard units ("Khartiya" 2nd Corps) are actively holding and engaging RF forces in the central part of Kupyansk (13:02Z).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The primary environmental factor is the escalating systemic utility disruption. The near-simultaneous large-scale power failures in Chernihiv and Poltava Oblasts significantly degrade UAF C2 redundancy, air defense coverage, and the security of key logistics nodes in the central-north sector. This vulnerability is being actively exploited by RF UAV intelligence and strike assets.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

UAF General Staff continues to demonstrate tactical resolve by denying large-scale encirclement claims (Pokrovsk) and sustaining combat in fixation zones (Kupyansk, Vovchansk). However, command integrity is now under dual threat: kinetic (MLD NLT 052100Z) and systemic (P4 utility collapse). RF forces are using FPV drones against civilian targets in the immediate Zaporizhzhia district (13:01Z) as part of the MLD shaping fires.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Overall Intent: Achieve deep penetration at Stepnohorsk and strategically paralyze UAF operational C2 and logistics through coordinated exploitation of infrastructure failures in the North/Center.

• Exploitation (P4 Focus): RF forces have immediately leveraged the Poltava power outages to route deep-penetrating UAVs past key towns (Karlivka, Lokhvytsia). Intent is assessed as striking either primary C2 nodes, rail infrastructure, or major fuel/munitions dumps in the Poltava hub, severely complicating UAF reserve movement toward the South.
• Technological IO Projection (NEW): RF is executing a coordinated propaganda push focusing on the success of the Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies "Rubicon," claiming technological superiority and demoralizing UAF through reports of successful drone-on-drone ramming tactics (12:35Z).
• Kinetic: The presence of RF elements in the Huliaipole-Varvarivka sector confirms the intent to utilize the 38th GMRB to threaten the operational reserve's flank (P1).

2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

RF logistics remain sufficient for the MLD execution. The shift in kinetic focus to Northern/Central infrastructure (Poltava power grid) indicates a prioritization of interdicting UAF resupply routes over simply reducing their logistics depots in the South. This move directly supports the MLD by starving the UAF defense of necessary reinforcement and material.

2.3. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1. Systemic Exploitation: RF is demonstrating proficiency in exploiting secondary infrastructure failures (Poltava outages following Chernihiv) by immediately redirecting UAV/ISR assets to target vulnerable nodes in the dark zone.
2. Drone vs. Drone Tactics: Confirmed video footage of RF drones successfully ramming and destroying UAF reconnaissance UAVs (Darts) indicates an active counter-UAV adaptation by RF forces, potentially utilizing low-cost sacrificial platforms.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

Readiness remains high in fixed defensive areas and low-level tactical engagement (Kupyansk fighting, counter-UAV successes). However, the operational-strategic readiness is degrading due to the acute, expanding C2/Utility Constraint (P4) now encompassing the Poltava logistical hub. UAF forces are successfully using the integration of international volunteers in high-visibility combat (Khartiya Brigade in Kupyansk) as a morale and IO asset.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

• SETBACK: Emergency power outages declared in Poltava Oblast. This is a critical blow to operational resilience in the central corridor.
• SETBACK: Loss of UAF "Darts" UAV via RF ramming tactic.
• SUCCESS: Continued, verified UAF defensive hold in Kupyansk central region against RF fixation pressure.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CRITICAL - P4 UTILITY/C2)

The C2/Utility Constraint has reached a critical level.

1. Immediate Resource Allocation: Technical teams, backup generators, and satellite communication terminals must be rerouted immediately to Poltava Oblast to stabilize critical logistics and C2 nodes before the MLD launches.
2. Air Defense Reinforcement: The UAV threat (Karlivka/Lokhvytsia track) requires the immediate deployment of short-range layered air defense assets (VADS/MANPADS) to protect rail/power infrastructure in Poltava/Chernihiv Oblasts.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

RF IO is executing a highly focused campaign designed to induce panic over NATO reliability and domestic fragility, timed to coincide with the kinetic MLD.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

RF will execute the Stepnohorsk MLD NLT 052100Z, achieving maximum psychological pressure by coordinating kinetic assault with strategic infrastructure strikes.

1. Synchronized Strike (P4 Exploitation): Prior to or simultaneous with the MLD launch, RF will launch a coordinated strike (UAV, potentially ballistic) aimed at rail/power infrastructure or operational C2 hubs in the Poltava/Chernihiv corridor, utilizing intelligence gained from the ongoing power outages.
2. MLD Execution: 37th GMRB initiates the assault. The 38th GMRB maintains high pressure in the Huliaipole-Varvarivka sector, confirming the flank threat to the UAF reserve.
3. Maximum Deception: RF IO will continue to flood the environment with claims of Pokrovsk 'liberation' and NATO friction to induce reserve commitment errors.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

The UAF General Staff delays commitment of the Phase Line BRAVO operational reserve, awaiting P1 verification, which occurs too late. The 37th GMRB breaches Phase Line BRAVO utilizing "Kuryer" UGVs. Concurrently, the Poltava rail hub is successfully targeted and rendered inoperable by a coordinated deep strike, preventing timely reinforcement of the Southern Front and lateral movement of reserves. This dual paralysis—kinetic breakthrough and logistical strangulation—could lead to a major operational rupture.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL)

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1. Operational Maneuver and Fires (J3 / J2)

ACTION: P1 FLANK PROTECTION, P4 C2/UTILITY SHIELDING, P6 COUNTER-DRONE DOCTRINE.

1. P4 Logistics Corridor Shielding (Immediate): Deploy pre-positioned mobile air defense assets (ZSU-23/4, MANPADS teams, HMG) to secure primary rail and road junctions within the Poltava/Chernihiv power outage zones to neutralize deep-penetrating UAV threats (12:47Z track).
2. P1 Reserve Allocation (Urgent): While avoiding premature commitment to the Pokrovsk deception (P5), maintain the operational reserve on high alert. The confirmation of RF presence at Huliaipole-Varvarivka validates the flank threat. Prepare immediate deployment of a blocking force contingent (Phase Line BRAVO) upon P1 resolution.
3. P6 Counter-Drone Doctrine: J7 must issue an immediate tactical bulletin updating counter-UAV doctrine to address the ramming threat. Priority for HMG engagement should be given to RF counter-UAV assets attempting these tactics.

7.2. Strategic Communications and Diplomatic Counter-Offensive (STRATCOM / MFA)

ACTION: P2 NEUTRALIZE NATO RIFT AND COUNTER RF TECH CLAIMS.

1. Integrate Diplomatic Response (P2): The MFA must execute the proactive Warsaw visit (Polish FM Sikorski advice). Simultaneously, STRATCOM must launch an integrated campaign framing the US/NATO tension narratives as blatant RF disinformation designed to cover up the strategic loss of Russian influence (e.g., Turkey/F-35 development).
2. Counter "Rubicon" Narrative: STRATCOM must issue a technical counter-narrative to the "Rubicon" claims, detailing UAF successes against specific RF drone platforms and downplaying the ramming incident as a high-risk, low-percentage tactic used by RF due to lack of advanced EW capability.
3. Counter Mobilization Propaganda: Local authorities and STRATCOM must immediately issue a strong counter-response to the Poltava 'Pitbull' propaganda, reinforcing the legality of TCC operations and condemning the weaponization of domestic friction by RF media.