Sitrep 2025-12-05 12:34:36

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (MISREP) 25-12-05/057

TIME: 051245Z DEC 2025 SUBJECT: STEPNOHORSK MLD IMMINENT; CHERNIHIV INFRASTRUCTURE FAILURE; POKROVSK IO DECEPTION MAXIMIZED. PRIORITY: P1 Verify Chervonoye Status (NLT 051400Z). P2 Strategic IO Counter-Offensive (IMMEDIATE, Incorporate Turkish/Polish Developments). P4 Address Chernihiv Infrastructure Collapse (IMMEDIATE).

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

The operational environment is characterized by RF maximizing fixation across multiple axes (Donetsk, Kharkiv, Sumy) to prevent UAF reserve commitment to the Stepnohorsk Main Effort Land Drive (MLD).

Zaporizhzhia/Stepnohorsk (CRITICAL): The kinetic threat remains imminent (MLD NLT 052100Z). The unverified loss of Chervonoye remains the primary tactical maneuver gap (P1).
Donetsk Axis (HIGH FIXATION): RF propaganda is attempting to claim the capture of Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) and encirclement of Mirnohrad (12:23Z, 12:23:38Z). UAF General Staff denies encirclement but confirms intense pressure, signaling a deliberate attempt by RF to draw operational reserve commitment away from Stepnohorsk via strategic deception. RF reports destruction of UAF armored vehicles near Pokrovsk (12:15Z).
Vovchansk (FIXATION CONFIRMED): UAF reports RF advances and consolidation attempts within the ruins of Vovchansk (12:19Z), confirming the continued viability of the Kharkiv axis as a secondary fixation effort.
Northern Operational Zone (C2 VULNERABILITY): A systemic network failure has caused 90% power loss in Chernihiv Oblast (12:24Z), creating an acute vulnerability for C2 redundancy, air defense coverage, and logistical flow in the North. This is now P4.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Tactical weather remains standard for winter conditions. The immediate environmental factor is the unconfirmed cause of the Chernihiv power failure, requiring immediate investigation (P4 Gap).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

UAF remains defensively postured, demonstrating successful deep strike (Syzran NPZ) and localized counter-drone capability (Sumy, 12:28Z). The operational reserve remains the Center of Gravity, but decision-making authority is under immense pressure due to unverified flanking threats (Chervonoye) and strategic deception (Pokrovsk claims). The Chernihiv outage requires immediate resource allocation for damage assessment and repair.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Overall Intent: To execute the Stepnohorsk MLD (37th GMRB) while achieving cognitive paralysis and reserve fixation via multi-axis deception and infrastructure disruption.

Deception/Fixation: RF is simultaneously leveraging the (P1) Chervonoye flank threat and the (New) Krasnoarmiisk/Pokrovsk capture claim to maximize UAF reserve commitment uncertainty. This strategy is designed to exploit the UAF decision cycle regarding the commitment of the Phase Line BRAVO operational reserve.
Logistics Interdiction (New Vector): The Chernihiv power failure, regardless of cause, immediately supports RF intent to disrupt UAF logistics and C2 in the North (P3/Terny axis). This enhances the effectiveness of the UAV strikes moving toward Poltava (12:27Z).
IO Stabilization: The TASS reporting on the high-profile Timur Ivanov corruption case (12:04Z, 12:15Z) indicates RF leadership is actively attempting to project internal stability and 'rule of law' against Western narratives of systemic corruption, thus stabilizing the domestic elite during the kinetic MLD phase.

2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

The status remains degraded due to the Syzran NPZ strike, but ammunition (GRAU Score 26.12) is high enough for the initial MLD thrust. RF is demonstrating continued capability to sustain high-volume deception efforts on the Donetsk axis, indicating sufficient material throughput to support high-expenditure KAB/artillery fires despite UAF deep strikes.

2.3. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Strategic Deception Layering: RF has layered a new strategic deception (Pokrovsk claim) on top of the critical Chervonoye flanking effort, forcing the UAF General Staff to defend two major strategic nodes simultaneously with the same limited reserve pool.
Infrastructure Targeting/Exploitation: The systemic failure in Chernihiv has provided an immediate operational advantage, whether planned or opportunistic, disrupting C2 in the area targeted by previous UAV fixation efforts (Sumy/Terny).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

UAF forces are under acute kinetic and cognitive stress. Readiness is high at the tactical level (successful counter-drone operations in Sumy, denial of Pokrovsk encirclement), but operational-level C2 integrity is now threatened by the Chernihiv infrastructure collapse (P4).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

SETBACK: Systemic power loss in Chernihiv Oblast impacting 90% of subscribers, indicating major C2/logistical friction in the North.
SUCCESS: UAF units (State Border Guard Service - DPGSU) in Sumy successfully engage and destroy FPV drones with small arms, demonstrating effective local adaptation to the P3 UAV threat. UAF successfully denying the Pokrovsk encirclement claim.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CRITICAL - C2/UTILITY)

The critical constraint has shifted: beyond the maneuver constraint (reserve allocation), there is now an immediate Utility/C2 constraint in the Northern Operational Zone requiring:

Immediate establishment of redundant C2 links (STARLINK/SATCOM) in Chernihiv.
Allocation of technical teams and resources to assess and repair the systemic network failure (P4).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

The Information Environment remains at a strategic crisis level (P2). RF narratives are achieving maximum penetration, now leveraged by coordinated political action.

Domain	Finding (FACT/Judgment)	Confidence	Operational Impact
RF Internal Stability	TASS reports high-profile assets seized from former Deputy MoD Ivanov (12:04Z).	HIGH (Fact/Judgment)	RF projecting internal strength and counter-corruption efficacy, directly countering Western corruption narratives and stabilizing the domestic elite ahead of high-casualty operations.
Geopolitical Alignment (NEW POSITIVE)	Turkey may abandon S-400 for F-35 program reinstatement (12:09Z).	HIGH (Fact)	Strategic loss of Russian geopolitical leverage and defense technology sales; provides a key positive counter-narrative to "Western Abandonment" (P2).
Diplomatic Friction/Coordination	Polish FM Sikorski suggests Zelenskyy proactively request a visit to Warsaw (12:31Z).	MEDIUM (Fact/Judgment)	Indicates subtle friction or protocol challenges in critical diplomatic relations, which RF IO can exploit. Requires immediate proactive response (P2).
IO Projection/Global Reach	Russian state media RT officially launches RT India (12:24Z).	HIGH (Fact)	Confirms RF commitment to projecting non-Western alignment and strategic depth globally, especially targeting key resource partners.
Kinetic Projection (Deception)	RF command interview claiming "liberation" of Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) (12:23Z).	HIGH (Propaganda/Judgment)	Direct attempt to induce panic and force premature commitment of the UAF operational reserve to the Donetsk axis.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

RF will execute the MLD NLT 052100Z, with supporting deception and fixation fires reaching their peak intensity in the next 8 hours.

MLD Execution (Stepnohorsk): 37th GMRB initiates the MLD, utilizing "Kuryer" UGVs to breach minefields under cover of massed artillery/KAB strikes.
Reserve Fixation: 38th GMRB will maintain high kinetic pressure and deception regarding the status of Chervonoye and Pokrovsk, waiting for UAF command to commit the operational reserve to the flank.
Exploitation of C2 Failure: RF UAVs (currently tracked moving toward Poltava, 12:27Z) will likely attempt to exploit the systemic power failure in Chernihiv to strike key backup C2 or infrastructure nodes.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

UAF General Staff, paralyzed by the layered deception (Chervonoye and Pokrovsk claims), commits the operational reserve too broadly or prematurely to the Donetsk axis. This allows the 37th GMRB to achieve a rapid, deep penetration of Phase Line BRAVO at Stepnohorsk, creating a tactical breach that cannot be contained. Simultaneously, the Northern UAV threat successfully strikes a major C2/logistic hub in Poltava, severely degrading the operational C2 redundancy.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL)

Event	Estimated Time Frame	Decision Point	Status
P1: Chervonoye Status Verification	NLT 051400Z	J2/J3 must verify the status of Chervonoye/Huliaipole flank stability. This dictates reserve allocation.	CRITICAL MANEUVER (P1)
P4: Chernihiv Infrastructure Stabilization	NLT 051600Z	J6/Civil Defence must confirm the cause of the power failure (strike vs. failure) and establish redundant C2/utility supply to operational units.	CRITICAL C2/UTILITY (P4)
P2: Strategic IO/MDD Counter-Strike	NLT 051500Z	President/MFA must address the NATO rift, Sikorski’s diplomatic advice, and integrate the Turkish F-35 story into the counter-narrative.	CRITICAL IO (P2)
MLD Launch Window	052100Z +/- 3 hours	Final confirmation of reserve disposition for counter-attack.	CRITICAL KINETIC

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

Priority	Gap Description	Required Action	Confidence Impact
P1 (CRITICAL - MANEUVER)	CONFIRMATION OF CHERVONOYE STATUS. Is the MoD Russia claim legitimate? What is the current disposition of 38th GMRB?	IMMEDIATE ISR/HUMINT Tasking: Focus tactical reconnaissance on Chervonoye-Huliaipole axis. Confirm enemy control and force strength.	CRITICAL
P4 (CRITICAL - C2/UTILITY)	CAUSE OF CHERNIHIV INFRASTRUCTURE FAILURE. Was it a kinetic strike, EW attack, or systemic civilian failure? What assets were impacted?	IMMEDIATE TECHNICAL/J6/EW Assessment: Analyze network telemetry and residual threat traces. Prioritize protecting C2 nodes in affected areas.	HIGH
P5 (CRITICAL - DECEPTION ASSESSMENT)	Actual RF force disposition near Krasnoarmiisk/Pokrovsk. Are the RF claims of 'liberation' backed by the commitment of major maneuver units, or merely shaping fires?	ISR Tasking (Donetsk): High-altitude sensor sweep (SAR/EO) to identify mechanized movement or staging areas supporting the RF 'capture' claim.	MEDIUM

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1. Operational Maneuver and Fires (J3 / J2)

ACTION: P1 FLANK PROTECTION, P5 DECEPTION MITIGATION, P4 C2 STABILIZATION.

P1 Chervonoye Verification Response (Immediate): J3 must execute the planned reconnaissance. Do not commit the main operational reserve based solely on the Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmiisk claim (P5 Deception). The Stepnohorsk counter-attack reserve remains sacrosanct until Chervonoye status (P1) is confirmed.
P4 Chernihiv C2 Stabilization: J6 must immediately deploy Mobile Communication Teams (MCTs) and activate satellite communication redundancies (STARLINK) to operational units in Chernihiv Oblast. Civil Defence must rapidly assess the damage to the civilian power grid to prioritize repair resources and prevent secondary effects (e.g., water supply failure).
Northern Air Defense (P3 Refined): Given the successful local defense (Sumy), allocate additional MANPADS teams to major logistical chokepoints in the Poltava corridor to counter the deep-flying UAV threat (12:27Z track).

7.2. Strategic Communications and Diplomatic Counter-Offensive (STRATCOM / MFA)

ACTION: P2 STRATEGIC IO COUNTER-STRIKE. NEUTRALIZE THE ABANDONMENT NARRATIVES AND EXPLOIT RF LOSSES.

Exploit Turkish/F-35 Development: STRATCOM must immediately amplify the news regarding Turkey considering dropping the S-400 for F-35s. Frame this as a strategic loss of Russian influence and a concrete sign of NATO strengthening.
Proactive Polish Diplomacy: MFA must immediately act on Sikorski's advice. Proactively request a high-profile, symbolic meeting between the President and the Polish Presidential Palace to demonstrably nullify any narrative of friction or political protocol failure (P2).
Address RF Internal Stability Projection: Counter the Ivanov prosecution narrative by contrasting the token seizure of assets with the ongoing systemic corruption that enables the war. Re-amplify the Syzran NPZ strike to show that RF cannot secure its own strategic assets, regardless of internal political posturing.

Situation Report