MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (MISREP) 25-12-05/056
TIME: 051230Z DEC 2025
SUBJECT: STEPNOHORSK MLD IMMINENT: CRITICAL TACTICAL DETERIORATION AT CHERVONOYE; COGNITIVE CRISIS ESCALATES TO STRATEGIC FAILURE THRESHOLD.
PRIORITY: P1 Verify Chervonoye Status (NLT 051400Z). P2 Strategic IO Counter-Offensive (NLT 051500Z). P3 Address Northern UAV Threat (IMMEDIATE).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
The operational environment is characterized by an acute escalation of kinetic pressure synchronized with a strategic cognitive collapse in the information environment (IE).
- Zaporizhzhia Flank (CRITICAL): Russian MoD claims (051203Z) the "liberation" (capture) of Chervonoye in the Zaporizhzhia region. If confirmed, this represents a significant tactical success for the 38th GMRB, allowing RF forces to consolidate a flanking position against Huliaipole and severely endangering the rear of UAF units holding Phase Line BRAVO (Stepnohorsk). This requires immediate P1 verification.
- Northern Operational Zone (ESCALATION): Ukrainian Air Force (051144Z) confirms enemy UAV ingress into Sumy Oblast, targeting Terny. This confirms RF intent to use multi-axis fixation, utilizing deep-strike assets (UAV/Shahed) to pressure UAF logistical and C2 nodes in the North, preventing the relocation of reserves.
- Deep Rear (Confirmed Success): UAF General Staff has reconfirmed successful strikes on the Syzran NPZ and the Krasnodar maritime port (051155Z), severely constraining RF fuel sustainment for the imminent MLD.
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
The critical domain remains the information environment. RF state and pro-war media are highly effective in integrating strategic geopolitical events into tactical PSYOPs.
- Financial/Geopolitical: RF continues to promote the shift to national currencies with India (051136Z), projecting economic stability while US/European financial friction regarding frozen RF assets persists (051137Z).
- Censorship/Control: RF continues attempts to secure its digital ecosystem (new Gosuslugi login protocols, 051143Z).
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
UAF remains defensively postured along Phase Line BRAVO. The operational reserve is currently the center of gravity. The potential loss of Chervonoye forces a critical decision regarding the commitment of the reserve pool, which RF is actively trying to fix via UAV activity in the Sumy axis.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Overall Intent: RF intends to execute the Stepnohorsk Mechanized Land Drive (MLD) NLT 052100Z, achieving kinetic success before the full impact of the Syzran NPZ strike manifests (T+72 hours). This assault is masked and supported by maximum psychological pressure.
- 38th GMRB (Flanking Success): The strong claim of Chervonoye capture (051203Z) suggests the 38th GMRB has sufficient maneuver capability and localized numerical superiority to achieve rapid tactical breakthroughs, exceeding earlier estimates of consolidation.
- Kinetic Fixation (Northern Axis): The deployment of UAVs toward Terny (Sumy) demonstrates RF’s continued commitment to using cheaper, attritional assets (Shahed/FPV) to force UAF Air Defense and J3 to allocate critical resources away from the Stepnohorsk axis.
2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
Logistical constraints are escalating but have not yet affected the immediate MLD initiation.
- Fuel (DEGRADED): Syzran NPZ confirmed damage guarantees medium-term supply degradation.
- Ammunition (HIGH): GRAU Arsenal Score 26.12 remains Critical, indicating high confidence in ammunition throughput for the initial 48 hours of the assault.
2.3. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- Exploitation of Flanks: The explicit claim of Chervonoye capture suggests RF shifted focus from general fixation in Donetsk/Huliaipole to a targeted, successful breach on the Huliaipole flank, aiming to draw UAF reserves away from the Stepnohorsk main effort.
- Synchronized IO Assault: RF IO is immediately exploiting geopolitical reports (NATO rift) and linking them with internal anxieties (50k student mobilization, 051153Z) to achieve maximum cognitive paralysis precisely when the MLD is launched.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
UAF continues to demonstrate effective deep strike capability (Syzran NPZ). Tactical readiness is HIGH, but operational reserves are now threatened by the Chervonoye situation.
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: LOW/CRITICAL GAP)
- SETBACK (POTENTIAL): The claimed loss of Chervonoye must be immediately classified as a potential critical setback. If true, it places the entire UAF defense line in the Huliaipole area under acute threat of rapid flanking maneuver or partial encirclement.
- SUCCESS: Successful deep interdiction fires against RF logistics.
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CRITICAL - MANEUVER)
The immediate constraint is the need for operational reserve commitment. If Chervonoye is confirmed lost, the reserve must be utilized to stabilize the flank, potentially leaving Stepnohorsk vulnerable to a rapid Phase Line CHARLIE penetration. If Chervonoye is held, the reserve must be retained for the MLD counter-attack.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
The cognitive domain has reached a critical failure threshold (P1 crisis identified in previous reports is manifesting). RF narratives are achieving strategic validation.
| Domain | Finding (FACT/Judgment) | Confidence | Operational Impact |
|---|
| NATO Cohesion/US Abandonment | Widespread reporting (RTRS via UAF channels) that US demands Europe assume full NATO conventional defense responsibility by 2027 (051147Z, 051157Z). | HIGH (Fact) | STRATEGIC COLLAPSE. Validates the primary RF strategic narrative of Western abandonment and fracturing NATO cohesion. Direct requirement for immediate executive-level counter-messaging. |
| Internal Cohesion/Mobilization | RF PSYOP claiming 50,000 students were expelled and will be mobilized (051153Z). | HIGH (Fact/Judgment) | CRITICAL MORALE THREAT. Directly links to the prior TCC abuse narrative, designed to incite panic and draft evasion, severely constraining UAF recruitment and internal security just before the MLD. |
| Financial Rift | Senior German politician opposes US transfer of frozen assets to Ukraine (051137Z). | HIGH (Fact) | Reinforces the perception of diplomatic friction and resource uncertainty, compounding the crisis resulting from the earlier Euroclear statement. |
| Kinetic Projection | RF claims destruction of UAF equipment near Krasnoarmiisk (051135Z) and artillery/PSYOP activity by 38th GMRB (051200Z). | HIGH (Fact/Propaganda) | Fixation messaging designed to maintain pressure and psychological momentum ahead of the MLD. |
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
RF will execute a decisive kinetic phase synchronized with peak cognitive pressure in the next 12-24 hours.
- MLD Launch (Stepnohorsk): The 37th GMRB will launch the MLD, spearheaded by "Kuryer" UGVs, under cover of sustained KAB/artillery fire.
- Huliaipole Exploitation: The 38th GMRB will exploit the success at Chervonoye (if verified) or maintain intense pressure to force the UAF reserve commitment to the southern flank.
- Northern Shaping Fires: UAVs detected near Terny will launch deep strikes (likely Shahed/Geran) against UAF logistics or C2 in Sumy/Poltava oblasts to maximize friction and confirm reserve fixation.
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
The unconfirmed loss of Chervonoye is immediately exploited by the 38th GMRB to bypass Huliaipole and threaten critical UAF C2 centers or logistical hubs in the central Zaporizhzhia axis. Simultaneously, the MLD achieves rapid Phase Line CHARLIE penetration due to the lack of dedicated reserve counter-attack capacity, and the compounded IO crisis triggers a major domestic political or security incident in Kyiv.
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL)
| Event | Estimated Time Frame | Decision Point | Status |
|---|
| P1: Chervonoye Status Verification | NLT 051400Z | J2/J3 must verify the status of Chervonoye/Huliaipole flank stability. This dictates reserve allocation (P2). | CRITICAL MANEUVER (P1) |
| P2: Strategic IO/MDD Counter-Strike | NLT 051500Z | President/MFA must address the NATO rift (Reuters/RTRS) and the TCC/50k student PSYOP immediately and aggressively. | CRITICAL IO (P2) |
| P3: Northern UAV Response | NLT 051300Z | AD assets must be deployed or redeployed to counter the specific UAV threat detected near Terny, protecting major logistical supply routes. | CRITICAL FIRES (P3) |
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
| Priority | Gap Description | Required Action | Confidence Impact |
|---|
| P1 (CRITICAL - MANEUVER) | CONFIRMATION OF CHERVONOYE STATUS. Is the MoD Russia claim of capture legitimate or IO? What is the current disposition of 38th GMRB? | IMMEDIATE ISR/HUMINT Tasking: Focus tactical reconnaissance on Chervonoye-Huliaipole axis. Confirm enemy control and force strength. | CRITICAL |
| P2 (CRITICAL - IO/DIPLOMATIC) | Source and full context of the RTRS/Reuters reporting on US demand for 2027 NATO defense handover. | DIPLOMATIC/OSINT Tasking: Immediate contact with US/EU diplomatic channels to gauge policy certainty and coordinate a unified counter-statement. | CRITICAL |
| P3 (CRITICAL - FIRES) | Targeting associated with RF UAV activity in Sumy/Terny region. Are they targeting rail, fuel, or specific C2 nodes? | IMMEDIATE EW/SIGINT: Enhanced monitoring of UAV control links and associated RF communications to determine high-value targets. | CRITICAL |
7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS
7.1. Operational Maneuver and Fires (J3 / J2)
ACTION: P1 FLANK STABILIZATION AND P3 AIR DEFENSE SHIFT.
- P1 Chervonoye Verification Response (Immediate): J3 must initiate the pre-planned counter-reconnaissance effort on the Chervonoye axis. If the loss is confirmed, immediately commit a minimal reserve blocking force (designated Phase Line DELTA assets) to prevent 38th GMRB exploitation, while retaining the core operational reserve for the Stepnohorsk MLD counter-attack.
- P3 Northern Air Defense: Shift local AD assets (MANPADS/AGS) to the Terny/Sumy corridor. Given the confirmed UAV threat, assets must be repositioned to protect key logistics hubs feeding the eastern front. Utilize EW capabilities to disrupt UAV C2 links (P3 Gap).
- Logistics Exploitation: Maintain intense focus on secondary fuel targets (rail yards/rolling stock) to amplify the impact of the Syzran NPZ strike.
7.2. Strategic Communications and Diplomatic Counter-Offensive (STRATCOM / MFA)
ACTION: P2 STRATEGIC IO COUNTER-STRIKE. NEUTRALIZE THE ABANDONMENT NARRATIVES.
- Unified NATO Statement (NLT 051500Z): The President must secure and publicize a joint, high-level statement with key US and European diplomatic figures (e.g., US Secretary of State, NATO SG) unequivocally reaffirming long-term commitment to Ukraine, explicitly refuting any narrative of "abandonment" or "forced territorial concessions."
- Counter-Mobilization PSYOP: The MoD/TCC Chief must issue a public denial of the 50,000 student mobilization claim (051153Z). Simultaneously, accelerate the previously recommended internal review of TCC protocols and publicly announce specific, corrective actions to demonstrate accountability and undermine the systemic abuse narrative.
- Amplify Aid Success: Immediately publicize the progress on the $500M Patriot deal (previous report) and the multilateral US-made weapon procurement effort (051152Z) to counter the negative impact of the German financial friction narrative.
